Baron of Ivy Grottage

$OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL Further thoughts / clarification on offshore drillers. I've been on hols & only just listened to the $NE call. The rather more cautious / conservative tone was quite striking - listening to it straight after today's $RIG call, as I did. But as @freakmaster222 pointed out in reply to my quoted post (linked again below) - even since $NE call last week new multi year unexpected tender/s have been announced. One does have to be careful about incentives of management to be overly positive - esp immediately after engaging in major corporate activity (i.e. $RIG). But the other key factor - which $NE's CEO Robert Eifler pointed out - is that one needs a constructive view of future oil price in order to believe a strong & durable inflection in day rates is coming. There has been a lot of back and forth on here about oil price vs. other commods - and especially gold / silver. Do the historical ratios hold - or is it different this time and oil will remain permanently cheap (strongest proponent Doomberg)? Even those who think gold will move strongly higher and oil will catch up - often say 'eventually' (e.g. @LukeGromen). My view is the long term historical ratios will hold because everything real is linked / eventually subject to the laws of arbitrage. (I think) this is also basically Gromen's position - but I disagree with him strongly that one can have any confidence about when that mean reversion might happen. I have noticed a repeated pattern in the markets (and life more generally): the big changes happen in a highly non-linear fashion - and usually in a way that is counter-consensus. So, I am very constructive on future oil price and think the old ratios will hold - which probably means most people will end up profoundly shocked where the oil price ends up. Just like happened to gold / silver after many years of contemptuous 'gold / silver bugs at it again' commentary: the naysayers were right until they were suddenly very wrong. So, this is a key part of my belief in the offshore thesis (that I've held since first invested in 2021). We've had the scrapping, consolidation (the least expected and most bullish version: $RIG taking over $VAL), effective death of energy transition & beginnings of real concern about reserve replacement. But I think we're still missing what will really turbocharge the stocks: a big upward move in oil price and total shift from consensus of oversupply to scarcity. This is why I suspect $NE's management is prob too conservative (for understandable reasons) on day rate progression: I think when it comes it will come fast & hard and surprise all the analysts. Just like it did in the post covid 2-2.5x in day rates in 3 years. But I have no idea when - just that however it happens it will very likely be counter-consensus. Final clarification: whilst I am very bullish medium term for the offshore driller stocks, they have had a terrific run since April 2025 Trump Dump - and esp year to date and since announcement of $RIG / $VAL takeover. I have held very large (for me) positions all the way through the brutal recent cycle lull trough (so I'm not that smart!!) - and added / rotated back into them from my PM exposure last year. But I am not a buyer at these levels - except possibly for $SDRL - which has lagged sector significantly over 1 month, YTD, 6 months and 1 year. The offshore drillers are one of most visible and fungible industries (one of reasons I invested) - and I have noted a repeated pattern of them going into and out of favour because 'narrative of day' - that regularly rotates / changes. $VAL was the laggard in December 2024, $RIG dumped on fears it would buy $SDRL for stock when its stock was weak, $SDRL was strongest on takeover rumours at same time. $NE was in favour around / after Trump Dump, then it lagged most - and now $RIG / $VAL are the darlings and $SDRL is written off as left on shelf. I have rotated some of my $VAL profits into $SDRL as the $RIG / $VAL takeover is extremely positive for the whole industry. And in fact you could argue most positive for the weakest of remaining players - as they will benefit most from overall improved price / contracting discipline. I have often read you should examine each stock in your portfolio with fresh eyes every day and if you would not buy it at current price - it is therefore a sell. It is my very strong view this is total garbage promoted by armchair investors / commentators: there should be a very wide area between the definite buy and definite sell prices - because real life is messy and very uncertain. How else could you possibly buy & hold a big long term winner? Which in my view should be the primary goal of every investor. So, I'm not a buyer of sector - but I am a firm holder.

Liver contains retinol. The supplement aisle sells retinol capsules. Beef contains CoQ10. The supplement aisle sells CoQ10 capsules. Salmon contains omega-3. The supplement aisle sells fish-oil softgels. Egg yolk contains choline. The supplement aisle sells choline capsules. Bone marrow contains glycine and collagen. The supplement aisle sells collagen sachets. Heart contains taurine. The supplement aisle sells taurine. Kidney contains selenium. The supplement aisle sells selenium tablets. Raw butter contains vitamin K2. The supplement aisle sells K2 drops. Oysters contain zinc. The supplement aisle sells zinc lozenges. Lamb contains carnitine. The supplement aisle sells carnitine. The supplement aisle is just an animal, taken apart, capsuled, marked up forty-fold. Sold to you by the same people who told you not to eat the animal. The animal had a name once. Your great-grandmother probably knew it.

😂😂😂

@Ultradeep3 💀

Steno wellness check?

The largest supply shock in history is pricing into the curve, not the backend (yet). I've been saying this since 2004: the curve shape reflects the fundamentals. The long end reflects the industry's marginal cost, incorporating the cost of capital which are ultimately driven by liquidity. ICE Brent spot is $107/bbl, while the three-year is at $75/bbl. Percent backwardation — which strips out price-level effects — hit an all-time high in April. It remains near record today. The largest oil supply shock in history is reasonably priced into the curve, and it likely has much more to run. Remember we are in the depths of the shoulder months, so there is no stress on the system. Markets are fixated on Dated Brent differentials, c.$5/bbl last night which is down sharply, but that is a microcosm of the oil market. Dated Brent is Sullum Voe. One North Sea terminal. Not the global oil market. Spot has not exceeded the Russia-Ukraine peak for one reason: the back end of the curve sits $10–$12/bbl below where it was then. But the long end isn't a clean signal. Liquidity past 24 months is thin, dominated by producer hedges. Cal-29 isn't where the market thinks oil settles. It is where corporate treasurers are forced to transact, which makes it consistent with their costs of capital. The cleaner signal is the energy equity complex — long-dated call options on undeveloped reserves. ExxonMobil holds 14 years. Chevron, 15. Equity prices integrate the entire forward strip. Diverge too far and an arbitrage opens. In a capacity-constrained world those reserves are worth more, not less. The equity market is pricing the opposite. Every oil CEO has warned we exit this disruption with lasting supply problems. The market refuses to listen. S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500 can be used as a proxy for the long-dated oil price, and it currently implies long-run Brent of ~$70 — below the strip at $72–$75 — but not too far away. A proxy for the curve shape follows: Brent ÷ (S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500). Or rewritten: Brent × S&P 500 ÷ S&P Energy. That single number proxies the FCF yield differential between the energy sector and the rest of the market. That has been bouncing around all-time highs. When the FCF yield gap reaches extremes, investors should rotate. Even at $75 — not spot's $105 — the energy complex yields 600-1,000 bp above the S&P 500. In 2022, investors did rotate and those that did weathered the ensuing 35% collapse in the NASDAQ much better than those that didn’t. The equity market is betting Brent falls to realign FCF yields. If it doesn't, capital has to buy Energy and sell the Mag 7. A 1,000bp differential in FCF yields cannot persist. And if oil breaks out as we expect, something has to give. You know which one I think will give. That is the Revenge of the Old Economy! We are at the tipping point. 2/10

Look what they are doing! 😭 x.com/i/status/20547…

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This is the most important thread on Twitter this year for investors. Jeff is a commodity legend. I 100% endorse this analysis. My portfolio 90% reflects this already ($NWBO being the exception.) Buckle up! Going to be one hell of a ride!!

Extraordinary how many intelligent people try to blame this on Brexit, which does not fit the timeline. We know what the real problem is: we have chosen to lumber ourselves with the most expensive industrial energy costs in the developed world.

Norway is reopening fields in the North Sea yet this retard does exactly the opposite. He is helping to destroy the UK economy.

Please sign my Government petition if you care about th ecountryside

@HansAmato Why did you not just donate blood?

50mg of Aromasin per week couldn't move my T:E2 ratio where 420g of white button mushrooms did in two weeks. That same mushroom dropped my ferritin from 412 to 248 ng/mL in the same window. No prescription. No blood donation. No chelation protocol. The grocery store is doing more work than most people's supplement stacks!!! ------ Here's the mechanism nobody talks about ------ White button mushrooms contain beta-glucans and a chitin-glucan fiber matrix that bind iron directly in the gut lumen. Before it absorbs. Before it accumulates. Before it gets the chance to catalyse the hydroxyl radical reactions that damage Leydig cells, impair thyroid conversion, and wreck mitochondrial function. They also bind bile acids carrying iron toward excretion, amplifying removal through the hepatic pathway simultaneously. Two binding mechanisms. One food. Less than $3 at any grocery store. ------ Why ferritin matters more than most men realize ------ Optimal ferritin for men: 60–120 ng/mL. Above 200 warrants intervention. Above 300 is established overload. Most doctors won't flag it until damage is visible. At elevated ferritin: → Iron deposits accumulate in Leydig cells → testosterone production drops → T4 to T3 conversion impairs → hypothyroid symptoms on normal labs → Mitochondrial function compromises → fatigue, poor recovery, brain fog → Fenton reaction accelerates → hydroxyl radical production → tissue damage compounds silently → Inflammatory markers rise despite a clean diet and clean bloodwork everywhere else The man at 400 ng/mL who feels completely fine is not fine. He's just not symptomatic yet. The full ferritin reduction stack I ran alongside white button mushrooms: > Oysters: Zinc competes with iron at DMT1 absorption sites. > Aspirin: Metabolites chelate iron directly. > IP6 (phytic acid): Strong iron chelator (but can chelate other beneficial minerals too). My podcast co-host halved his ferritin in 10 days on 5g daily. > Milk as primary protein. Virtually iron-free. Calcium competes with iron at absorption sites. Ferritin at 412 felt like nothing. That's the most dangerous part about iron overload. By the time it feels like something, the accumulation has been compounding for years. A pharmaceutical aromatase inhibitor couldn't do what a grocery store mushroom did in two weeks. That's not optimization. That's a constraint removed.

@TheDriller11 A 40 year old jack up at a day rate of $132k/day in Nigeria... By itself pretty insane. Don't own enough $BORR ...

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Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

Case in point. I'm short gold today and have been since early March. Yes, I'm a gold perma bull. Right now I'm short — exactly like Billy Ray would be — because Turkey is showing you what's already happening. The Turkish central bank has sold roughly 120 tonnes of gold to defend the Lira and fund energy imports. Bernard Dahdah was explicit in April: central banks are now selling gold "to defend their currency and/or to fund energy purchases." bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold… When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold's biggest bid disappears. Once central banks turn dovish after the energy crisis hits growth, the trade resets and I'm back long. Even gold bulls have to read the tape. Gold 4,000 then 10,000. 9/10

Israeli soldiers have gone on Israeli television and said they use dogs to r•pe prisoners. Israeli settlers raided a military base in July 2024 and rioted for the “right to r•pe” after reservists were arrested for r•ping a male prisoner to death with a steel bar. After the right to r•pe riots a member of the Israeli Knesset proclaimed that Israeli soldiers had the right to do whatever they wanted to to Palestinian prisoners, including r•pe. Quite literally no group of people have provided more evidence of the widespread, systematic sexual abuse of Palestinian prisoners at the hands of the IDF than Israelis themselves. (All receipts below)

$FTI $TDW $RIG TechnipFMC slides from 2017 to today. The momentum is driven by the new economics associated with offshore fields being preferred over onshore capex. In addition, the amount of natural gas/lng projects that are being done is substantial this was not happening in previous cycles. All of this sudden gas projects are front and center for domestic energy needs + economics. Slowly, then all at once.

$RIG is setting itself up nicely for the next move higher after several weeks of consolidation following the breakout from its multi-year triangle. Very clean setup with a strong volume profile as well #offshore #oil

This is Pro-Tier trolling!! 😂