Baron of Ivy Grottage

$OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL Further thoughts / clarification on offshore drillers. I've been on hols & only just listened to the $NE call. The rather more cautious / conservative tone was quite striking - listening to it straight after today's $RIG call, as I did. But as @freakmaster222 pointed out in reply to my quoted post (linked again below) - even since $NE call last week new multi year unexpected tender/s have been announced. One does have to be careful about incentives of management to be overly positive - esp immediately after engaging in major corporate activity (i.e. $RIG). But the other key factor - which $NE's CEO Robert Eifler pointed out - is that one needs a constructive view of future oil price in order to believe a strong & durable inflection in day rates is coming. There has been a lot of back and forth on here about oil price vs. other commods - and especially gold / silver. Do the historical ratios hold - or is it different this time and oil will remain permanently cheap (strongest proponent Doomberg)? Even those who think gold will move strongly higher and oil will catch up - often say 'eventually' (e.g. @LukeGromen). My view is the long term historical ratios will hold because everything real is linked / eventually subject to the laws of arbitrage. (I think) this is also basically Gromen's position - but I disagree with him strongly that one can have any confidence about when that mean reversion might happen. I have noticed a repeated pattern in the markets (and life more generally): the big changes happen in a highly non-linear fashion - and usually in a way that is counter-consensus. So, I am very constructive on future oil price and think the old ratios will hold - which probably means most people will end up profoundly shocked where the oil price ends up. Just like happened to gold / silver after many years of contemptuous 'gold / silver bugs at it again' commentary: the naysayers were right until they were suddenly very wrong. So, this is a key part of my belief in the offshore thesis (that I've held since first invested in 2021). We've had the scrapping, consolidation (the least expected and most bullish version: $RIG taking over $VAL), effective death of energy transition & beginnings of real concern about reserve replacement. But I think we're still missing what will really turbocharge the stocks: a big upward move in oil price and total shift from consensus of oversupply to scarcity. This is why I suspect $NE's management is prob too conservative (for understandable reasons) on day rate progression: I think when it comes it will come fast & hard and surprise all the analysts. Just like it did in the post covid 2-2.5x in day rates in 3 years. But I have no idea when - just that however it happens it will very likely be counter-consensus. Final clarification: whilst I am very bullish medium term for the offshore driller stocks, they have had a terrific run since April 2025 Trump Dump - and esp year to date and since announcement of $RIG / $VAL takeover. I have held very large (for me) positions all the way through the brutal recent cycle lull trough (so I'm not that smart!!) - and added / rotated back into them from my PM exposure last year. But I am not a buyer at these levels - except possibly for $SDRL - which has lagged sector significantly over 1 month, YTD, 6 months and 1 year. The offshore drillers are one of most visible and fungible industries (one of reasons I invested) - and I have noted a repeated pattern of them going into and out of favour because 'narrative of day' - that regularly rotates / changes. $VAL was the laggard in December 2024, $RIG dumped on fears it would buy $SDRL for stock when its stock was weak, $SDRL was strongest on takeover rumours at same time. $NE was in favour around / after Trump Dump, then it lagged most - and now $RIG / $VAL are the darlings and $SDRL is written off as left on shelf. I have rotated some of my $VAL profits into $SDRL as the $RIG / $VAL takeover is extremely positive for the whole industry. And in fact you could argue most positive for the weakest of remaining players - as they will benefit most from overall improved price / contracting discipline. I have often read you should examine each stock in your portfolio with fresh eyes every day and if you would not buy it at current price - it is therefore a sell. It is my very strong view this is total garbage promoted by armchair investors / commentators: there should be a very wide area between the definite buy and definite sell prices - because real life is messy and very uncertain. How else could you possibly buy & hold a big long term winner? Which in my view should be the primary goal of every investor. So, I'm not a buyer of sector - but I am a firm holder.

To help those who believe there will be an amphibious landing on Kharg Island, here’s a map. Note how Kharg Island is in the western end of the Persian Gulf. Note where the Strait of Hormuz is. Consider that there are no US naval assets anywhere in the waters portrayed in this map. Ask yourself why.

It’s going to get worse before it gets worse.

where are all the portfolio performance charts and screenshots now?

The more oil prices stay capped and financial markets hold up, the less incentive there is to end the war. Everyone is betting on TACO, but that very expectation is exactly what’s pushing it further away. Meanwhile, in the real world, the Strait remains closed and supply is just bleeding out. Given the projected drawdowns in both waterborne and onshore inventories, late March and mid-April are likely going to be the next major inflection point. At the end of the day, a quick restoration of flows is the only real fix. But the more we tell ourselves "it's fine, nothing’s happening" today, the higher the odds that this absolute dumpster fire of a reality just drags on. It’s a total paradox. The clock is ticking, and eventually, the physics of the market will catch up with reality. I honestly believe you guys need to get this. The outcome is pretty much baked in at this point based on how the timeline is playing out. Today’s rhetoric is just killing any incentive for a better tomorrow. In just a matter of days, we’re going to be staring down an unfixable situation—long after everything is already broken. #oott #iran

$Gold - I want to remind you that the 14 month RSI closed at 95.67 at the end of February, its most overbought level in history. If you can't stomach an 11% drawdown and cry about "manipulation" or "suppression" or say that the decline is "unjustified", you're in the wrong business and should stay away of financial assets.

Tough blow for Europe here tbh. Second generational energy crisis about to hit them straight in the teeth. Both within 5 years. Could have been entirely avoided by simply not reading EMBER think pieces on solar panels.

@Hedgewatch1 Don't forget $TGA.L (though already run).

Serica and Harbour look like near term winners. How much more can you tax them??! Don't ask.... Outside of that the obvious arb trades are Lyondell, CF Industries, Cheniere. Even Tullow's old bedfellow Kosmos gets JKM linked pricing on gas from its LNG....

The damage to Ras Laffan will be severe for gas importers in Asia and Europe. The UK in particular needs to rapidly incentivise UK North Sea drilling again. Gas prices likely to go to 2021/22 levels. We are lucky its spring and warm so far.

Thanks to the stupidity of its foes, Iran is now: making more money selling its barrels (which, by the way, are no longer sanctioned) and via a new tollbooth business. Truly 12D chess. #winning

🤣🤣

Incredible. >British police say facial recognition cameras should be used to catch criminals. >The cameras catch criminals. >They’re largely black. >The police turn the cameras off.

The energy crisis has not yet hit. Everything we have seen so far has only *just* started to filter through the system in some places, such as higher patrol/gasoline prices or limited chemical industry shutdowns. Unpleasant, but tolerable. The true crisis is only a couple of weeks from hitting. At that stage, the panic and pain will begin sharpening minds. The real potential for global economic catastrophe will enter the mainstream political discourse. When that happens, the pressure on President Trump to find an offramp will seriously intensify. Yet, unless the USAF can secure a stunning turnaround and comprehensively destroy Iran's ability to launch drones and missiles, he would be in exactly the same position now: facing the prospect of negotiating a defeat that will destroy his presidency, keep the Republicans out of office for the foreseeable future, and represent the biggest strategic turnaround for the United States since 1945.

If Iran does not pummel Israel into submission, Israel will embark on a policy of “mowing the lawn” as it’s done in Gaza and Lebanon, bombing on a continuous but lower intensity level post-ceasefire Iran is working toward imposing its own ceasefire terms by shattering the psyche of a colonial society accustomed to one-way peace deals

Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome

U.S. air defenses in the Middle East have been shooting $24 million worth of air defense to stop one $20,000 Iranian drone. Three Iranian drones costing about ~$50,000 in total destroyed a U.S. radar worth $1 billion.

On some level it is impossible for this war to end *until* oil prices hit $180/barrel or whatever, because until then nobody is going to be begging Trump to make a peace deal, and until then Trump has every incentive to escalate for negotiating leverage, and so does Iran.

Checkmate?

@policytensor is generally very good - but he also recently said Iran has over-performed everyone's expectations. He was wrong: I wasn't in least surprised because I followed e.g. @imetatronink and paid attention to Houthis / Red Sea and advances in drone / missile tech demonstrated in Ukraine war. So, he got the big one wrong; it could easily happen again. Don't forget there are eschatological religious fundamentalists involved at the top in Israel & US. Some of them welcome the idea of bringing on the End Times.

The worst thing at this point is that there are very likely even worse blunders to come. They can't just gather up their toys and go home. They'll try to do something — anything — to snatch elusive victory from the jaws of inevitable defeat.

You killed the moderate (Kantian Philosopher) now you get the radical (PhD in Supply Chain Logistics)

@Helios_Movement I cook in an iron pan to avoid non stick coatings. Is nothing scared / safe?!

Anon discovers the double edge sword of iron circa 2026. healthlibrary.substack.com/p/understandin… It is needed both for crucial processes such as oxygen transport and DNA synthesis, but it can also lead to: -Cancer -Gout -Gut issues -Liver disease -Hair loss -Age marks -Fatigue -Cardiovascular diseases and much more when in excess (especially for men). The body’s inability to actively excrete iron means that its regulation is critical. Unlike water-soluble vitamins, which are excreted in urine, or fat-soluble vitamins, which can be managed with dietary adjustments, iron accumulates in organs like the liver, heart, and pancreas when absorption exceeds needs. A complex interplay of absorption, transport, storage, and regulation mechanisms governs iron’s role in the body. First and foremost, iron absorption occurs primarily in the duodenum and upper jejunum, where dietary iron is taken up by enterocytes (intestinal cells). The body absorbs only 1-2 mg of iron daily under normal conditions, sufficient to meet physiological needs but tightly regulated to prevent overload. Key regulatory mechanisms include: 1. Hepcidin: A liver-produced peptide hormone, hepcidin is the master regulator of iron homeostasis. It binds to ferroportin, a protein that exports iron from enterocytes and macrophages into the bloodstream, triggering its degradation and reducing iron absorption. Hepcidin levels rise with high iron stores or inflammation (via IL-6) and fall with iron deficiency or hypoxia. Dysregulation, such as in hemochromatosis, leads to excessive absorption. 2. Ferroportin: This transmembrane protein facilitates iron export from cells. Its activity is modulated by hepcidin, ensuring iron release aligns with bodily needs. 3. Divalent Metal Transporter 1 (DMT1): DMT1 transports non-heme iron (Fe(II)) into enterocytes after reduction from Fe(III) by duodenal cytochrome b (DcytB), an enzyme on the enterocyte surface. 4. Ceruloplasmin: A copper-carrying glycoprotein with ferroxidase activity, ceruloplasmin oxidizes Fe(II) to Fe(III) for binding to transferrin, preventing free iron accumulation. It is produced in the liver, brain, lungs, and reproductive organs and carries 95% of circulating copper. Note: The body recycles iron from senescent red blood cells via macrophages in the spleen, reusing it for hemoglobin synthesis. Feedback mechanisms include: 1. Iron-Responsive Elements (IREs): These RNA sequences regulate the expression of ferritin and transferrin receptor genes based on cellular iron levels. 2. Hypoxia-Inducible Factor (HIF): Low oxygen levels increase iron absorption to support erythropoiesis (RBC production). 3. Inflammation: Inflammatory cytokines like IL-6 upregulate hepcidin, reducing iron availability to pathogens but potentially causing anemia of chronic disease. Now iron in the diet exists in three primary forms, each with distinct absorption characteristics: Number 1: Heme iron found in animal products such as red meat. This is highly bioavailable, with 15-35% absorbed. Heme iron is absorbed directly as a porphyrin complex via specific transporters. Number 2: Non-heme iron present in plant foods such as spinach, lentils etc. This is less bioavailable and influenced by dietary factors such as tannins, calcium etc (combining lentils and cheese for example lowers the absorption, while adding something high in vitamin C enhances absorption by reducing Fe(III) to Fe(II)). Number 3: Supplemental iron that includes ferrous sulfate, ferric citrate, ferric EDTA, ferrous fumarate and electrolytic iron powder used in supplements and fortified foods (mainly cereals, bread etc). These forms are highly absorbable but can be problematic with studies suggesting that ferric citrate and ferric EDTA increase amphiregulin, a biomarker for colon cancer. Not only that, but they are also linked to prostate cancer (serum ferritin is now used in combination with PSA for early prostate screening). Now, once again, iron is essential. Here’s why. First, approximately 70% of the body’s iron is incorporated into hemoglobin, the protein in red blood cells that binds oxygen in the lungs and delivers it to tissues. Each hemoglobin molecule contains four heme groups, each with an iron atom capable of binding one oxygen molecule. Myoglobin, a related protein in skeletal and cardiac muscle, stores oxygen for use during exercise, supporting muscle endurance. Iron deficiency anemia, characterized by low hemoglobin, leads to fatigue, pallor and reduced exercise capacity. So iron deficiency = problems as well. Then iron is a cofactor in enzymes critical for energy production and cellular metabolism such as: -Cytochromes: Iron-containing proteins in the mitochondrial electron transport chain facilitate ATP production. Cytochrome c, for example, transfers electrons between complexes III and IV, driving oxidative phosphorylation. -Ribonucleotide reductase: This iron-dependent enzyme converts ribonucleotides to deoxyribonucleotides, essential for DNA synthesis and repair. Adequate iron supports cell division, particularly in rapidly dividing tissues like bone marrow and skin. -Catalase and Peroxidases: These enzymes, which neutralize reactive oxygen species (ROS), require iron to protect cells from oxidative damage. Then, iron supports the rapid division of T and B cells during immune responses. Macrophages also use iron to generate ROS via the respiratory burst, killing pathogens like bacteria and fungi. Now on the flipside, iron overload is characterized by excessive iron accumulation in tissues, is a significant health concern. It results from dietary excess, genetic disorders like hemochromatosis, or lack of iron loss. A key mechanism by which an iron excess harms our health is oxidative stress and the Fenton reaction. Unbound or “free” iron (Fe(II)) catalyzes the Fenton reaction, converting hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) into hydroxyl radicals (OH•), highly reactive molecules that damage lipids, proteins, and DNA. The related Haber-Weiss reaction amplifies ROS production. Key consequences include: -Lipid peroxidation: Hydroxyl radicals attack polyunsaturated fatty acids in cell membranes, producing malondialdehyde (MDA) and 4-hydroxynonenal (4-HNE), markers of oxidative damage. -DNA damage: ROS induce DNA strand breaks and mutations, increasing cancer risk. -Protein oxidation: Oxidative modification of proteins impairs enzymatic function and cellular signaling. -Ferroptosis: An iron-dependent form of programmed cell death, ferroptosis disrupts cell membranes via lipid peroxidation, contributing to tissue damage in organs like the liver and brain. These processes underlie the link between iron overload and chronic diseases. For example, iron overload promotes cardiovascular disease (CVD) through multiple pathways such as: -Oxidative stress: Free iron oxidizes LDL cholesterol, forming oxidized LDL (oxLDL), which triggers endothelial dysfunction and atherosclerosis. -Blood viscosity: High iron levels increase hematocrit and blood viscosity, impairing blood flow and increasing shear stress on arterial walls. -Fibrinogen and clotting: Elevated ferritin is associated with increased fibrinogen, a clotting factor linked to higher heart attack risk . Iron’s role in cancer is also driven by its promotion of oxidative stress and inflammation: - ROS from iron overload cause DNA damage, promoting tumor initiation. Iron also supports tumor growth by fueling rapid cell division via ribonucleotide reductase. Inflammation, amplified by iron, creates a tumor-friendly microenvironment. Iron overload contributes to insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes as well where free iron impairs insulin signaling by damaging beta cells and disrupting glucose uptake in peripheral tissues. The list of problems is endless. In Alzheimer’s disease for example, iron disrupts amyloid-beta clearance and promotes tau protein aggregation. In Parkinson’s, iron accumulation in the substantia nigra exacerbates dopaminergic neuron loss. The point now is what can you do in order to prevent an iron overload or wtf can you do in case you are battling one First and foremost, go and test: -The HFE, HJV, HAMP, TFR2, SLC40A1 genes What are these? We inherit one HFE gene from each one of our parents. In this gene we can have two common mutations, the C282Y and H63D which will lead to a person being able to experience an iron overload way easier. That’s called type 1 hemochromatosis. Now if the mutations are in the HAMP or HJV gene, we have type 2 hemochromatosis. In the case where the mutation is in the TFR 2 gene we have type 3 and type 4 in the case of SLC40A1. Why do mutations in these genes create issues? Because they are responsible for producing proteins that help us absorb, store, transport and overall regulate iron. -Ferritin -Tsat -TBC -Hemoglobin -NTBI -Serum iron, zinc, copper, retinol, vitamin D -A liver panel If something is tremendously wrong, these will most likely show it. Then: -Cut out supplemental iron and foods that are fortified with iron. -Get enough magnesium and calcium. -You do not need 6 pounds of red meat a day. -Get enough B vitamins (especially B2, B9 and B12). -Do not pair foods that are high in iron (especially plant ones) with foods that are high in vitamin C. -Take it easy with alcohol (crucial). -Do not cook in cast irons (and ESPECIALLY don’t cook with acidic stuff in them) -Get enough retinol. -Get enough vitamin D. -After you’ve implemented these, get some copper from sources such as bee pollen. beef liver etc. -Get enough K2. Now in general some extra measures you can consider include: -Donating blood if your markers allow it. -Whole food vitamin E -Apolactoferrin -Quercetin -Milk thistle -Naringin -Chrysin rich foods -Taurine *Aspirin might help as well But don't add/do all these at once. If you go and donate blood while also adding whole food vitamin E, quercetin and milk thistle all at once for example, your ferritin will drop way too fast most likely.