Brian Horsburgh

224 posts

Brian Horsburgh

Brian Horsburgh

@Gruniard1

Autism dad. Nanotech in cancer, former virologist and investor.

Katılım Eylül 2020
167 Takip Edilen64 Takipçiler
Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
The question is whether China remains a seller of seeds or moves up the value chain. My contention is they will do just that as its capabilities keep growing. 20 years ago people said they could have the tools as the US would retain value. Fast forward and they turned tools in capabilities. It is hugely impressive and driving increasing pharma and vc investment. So why assume POC and outlicensing are the final destination forever? Have a great Memorial Day weekend.
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Peter Kolchinsky
Peter Kolchinsky@PeterKolchinsky·
@Gruniard1 That’s just getting smarter in general over time. But how is that bad for the US? If they are all competing like hell to cure diseases but can’t consolidate to a couple of national champions like BYD for cars, then the scare scenario ban-fans push doesn’t materialize.
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Peter Kolchinsky
Peter Kolchinsky@PeterKolchinsky·
The paradox of biotech protectionism: Why walling off China biotech weakens America US ban on Chinese biotech/trials would return pharma leadership to Europe, slow US patient access to new meds, & lead to US dependency protectionism claims to prevent. rapport.racap.com/all-stories/th…
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Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
Fair pushback. But I may be drifting from our core point about China not remaining just a seed provider. You don’t need a Moderna repeatedly creating mega-winners. You need gradual movement up the value chain: Generics to CROs to trial infrastructure to platofrm modalities, talent then migration to co-rights and commercialization economics. Their dominant bio-lego expertise in ADCs and bispecifics already suggest movement in that direction. The question isn't whether China builds one permanent champion. It's whether it stays confined to supplying early-stage assets or captures a little more of the value chain each cycle.
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Peter Kolchinsky
Peter Kolchinsky@PeterKolchinsky·
@Gruniard1 When has that really panned out? What platform companies have succeeded repeatedly? Even twice is rare. It’s a nice theoretical argument, but doesn’t play out in reality. So let’s not give China credit for a pie-in-the-sky strategy. We’ll scare ourselves into a dumb move.
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Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
Yes, individual drug patents expire. But platforms, know-how, datasets, and ecosystems can generate repeated waves of new drugs and value creation. The chess move is capability accumulation. I heard a version of this argument 20 years ago: let China have the drug-discovery tools because the US would retain the value. What was missed was that tools become capabilities. Capabilities become platforms. Platforms become drugs. Drug patents expire. Learning curves and ecosystems compound. China is unlikely to stop at proof-of-concept and out-licensing. It will keep moving up the value chain. At some point we may see China-origin drugs retaining co-US/EU rights, commercialization rights, or larger downstream economics.
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Peter Kolchinsky
Peter Kolchinsky@PeterKolchinsky·
@Gruniard1 Yes. But how? We spell out a chess strategy in the paper. What are moves China would make against that strategy? consider that you can’t just have a national champion in the drug industry… because drugs go generic. Read that section to see why dominance is always shifting.
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David R. Liu
David R. Liu@davidrliu·
Today in @ScienceTM, we report the use of in vivo adenine base editing to correct a variant causing Dravet syndrome, a severe childhood epilepsy and neurodevelopmental disorder, substantially ameliorating disease symptoms and extending lifespan in an animal model. 1/13 drive.google.com/file/d/12rcxew…
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Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
LP allocation to AI up - 4 firms raised 254bn this quarter and 3 are readying for trillion dollar IPOs sucking more capital to AI - and very concentrated. On the LS front, mega rounds and China investment/lincensing success further deplete our pie for everyone else. Added to a better but still anemic IPO window - meaning exits are down and portfolio companies funded at high valuations 3-5 years ago mean tough times for early stage venture imho
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Jing Liang 🇺🇦
Jing Liang 🇺🇦@AppleHelix·
Just got back from a Life Science investor conference. The mood of sub-$300m VC funds is not good. They are having a very hard time raising money. Many people got laid off just in the past 6 months. Apparently it is the same in EU and US. But Mega funds have no problem raising.
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Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
Words and facts matter. There was no genocide. War is horrific and we know there is collateral damage which increases when you embed your fighters within a civilian population. If this strategy was permitted to be successful it would be repeated ad finitum by zealots, ultimately resulting in far more civilian deaths. This strategy needs to be condemned. There are rules of war for a reason.
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Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
@matthewsyed Otherwise known as the hairy arm principle. If you're focused on that you're missing (or being led to miss) the important stuff. A sorry state of affairs.
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Matthew Syed
Matthew Syed@matthewsyed·
The bandwidth sucked up by the Mandelson non-story is embarrassing. A minor appointment taken in what was perceived to be the national interest. Astonishing that the Westminster bubble is still obsessed but then tittle tattle started to define British politics a long time ago
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Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
@A_May_MD I wonder what the metabolic whiplash looks like in patients who come off it....
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Gummi
Gummi@gummibear737·
Put yourself in my shoes for a second I saw the woke right happening 4 years ago...it was so obvious to me that I wagered all of my credibility on telling people what was going on...and credibility is something I care a lot about So I have one ask: at least consider what I'm saying even if it diverges completely from what you think. It might not be correct...I'm human and make mistakes. But if I say something, keep in mind that I'd doing so out of an abundance of caution because I care more about being right than other partisan considerations Since I started getting a following during Covid-19 I have stuck with a simple mission statement. I'll tell you what I think even if it's not what you want to hear. And I won't tell you what I think unless I'm fairly certain that it's correct
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Brad Loncar
Brad Loncar@bradloncar·
Some observers, including @US_FDA, have criticized @Replimune for the design of the trial that led to the decision not to grant accelerated approval of their melanoma treatment. I asked the company's Chairman about that view. Watch the full interview: biotechtv.com/post/replimune…
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Brian Horsburgh
Brian Horsburgh@Gruniard1·
@piersmorgan Let’s say it’s true for a moment. What else isn’t he being informed of and how can he do his job? This won’t end well.
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Piers Morgan
Piers Morgan@piersmorgan·
He can visibly rage all he likes, but I’m not buying this claptrap. How can someone as controversial as Mandelson, fired twice from previous Govts, fail a security vetting to be Britain’s top diplomat, and NOBODY in Govt or No10 is told about it? This defence will unravel.
Jack Parker@JackParkr

BREAKING: PM visibly raging as he speaks to @SamCoatesSky on Mandelson vetting row Starmer says it's "staggering" and "unforgivable that [he] was not told", he's "absolutely furious" "I was not told he had failed security vetting... No 10 was not told, that is completely unacceptable."

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Adam May
Adam May@A_May_MD·
@Biotenic Do you not recognize an 80x-down ***OPPORTUNITY**** (!!!!) when you see one?!?!!?
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Biotenic
Biotenic@Biotenic·
$REPL i (virtually) participated in the decision to show you what a CRL looks like
Biotenic tweet media
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