Guanyi Yang

It’s been a while, and finally… all my work started in grad school is out. Ungated version: raw.githack.com/yangguanyi/Wor… @just_economics #econsky #econtwitter 7/7

Policy: A nationwide tuition-free program raises BA completion from 25 to 78 percent and increases welfare by nearly 40 percent. A targeted tax break for part-time student-workers boosts completion for disadvantaged groups with smaller aggregate effects. 6/7

New paper out in JEDC: “Better Late Than Never: Macroeconomic Impact of Intermittent College Enrollment and Tuition Subsidies.” sciencedirect.com/science/articl… #econtwitter #econsky @just_economics 1/7

It’s been a while, and finally… all my grad school work is out. Better late than never: Macroeconomic impact of intermittent college e... sciencedirect.com/science/articl… #econtwitter

@AlePeri83 @MortenORavn Congratulations!!

Wonderful to see this work in print. A big thanks to the excellent editorial work of @MortenORavn

This is crazy: Biden's last act in the chip war before leaving office is to literally build a global technological Berlin Wall. Extremely easy to predict that this will backfire dramatically. Let's think this through. First of all, the heart of this initiative is the U.S. now dividing the world in 3: - Close allies with unfettered access to AI chips and similar advanced U.S. technology - Adversaries with little to no access - The rest of the world with restricted access on certain conditions (basically a deal that asks them to choose between the U.S. and China) To start with, let's be clear: this is the U.S. now dropping all pretense that this is somehow about military or "dual use", it's all about raw technological dominance. The goal, spelled out plainly in the Bloomberg article, is "concentrating AI development in friendly nations and getting businesses around the world to align with American standards." The problems with this approach are numerous and obvious. For "adversary" nations, you've just eliminated any reason for them to work with you. China, already investing massively in domestic semiconductor development, will only accelerate these efforts. You're not stopping their progress - you're guaranteeing they'll build their own ecosystem. And other "adversary" nations will literally have no other choice than to buy from China. For the "rest of world" tier, you're forcing a choice that they've all repeatedly said they didn't want to have to make (and that US officials have repeatedly lied they wouldn't force them to make): choosing between the U.S. and China. But here's the reality - it's not even a difficult choice. On one side, you have highly restricted U.S. technology with strict oversight and caps on computing power. On the other, you have open, accessible and considerably cheaper Chinese technology (like open-source Deepseek) and a partner that's already their largest trading relationship. For most of these countries, the choice is obvious - and it's not the one the U.S. wants them to make. Betting that countries will accept U.S. technological oversight and restrictions rather than pursue alternatives is properly delusional. Even U.S. companies recognize this is self-defeating. Nvidia's statement is telling: this won't "reduce the risk of misuse but would threaten economic growth and U.S. leadership." They understand that fragmenting the global market will ultimately hurt American competitiveness, not enhance it. Ultimately what this will lead to is a wall that will increasingly isolate U.S. technology while the rest of the world moves on. That's the irony: in trying to maintain technological dominance, the U.S. is accelerating its own isolation. By forcing countries to choose, it's creating exactly the conditions that will drive them toward Chinese alternatives. This isn't containing China's technological rise - it's hastening the emergence of a parallel technological ecosystem that the U.S. won't be able to control. And ultimately, with the sheer dynamism of China and the much faster growth of the Global South, this parallel ecosystem is very likely to become the dominant one vs a calcified and closed West. Link to Bloomberg article: bnnbloomberg.ca/business/techn…

Why? It's simple: the US-led West, which controls much of China's image internationally, cannot let China look successful, strong, clean or orderly while Beijing refuses to tow the U.S. line and bow down like Japan and South Korea have. China cannot be seen to succeed.

China is stubborn. Independent. Strong. It walks its own path, refusing to bend to U.S. will. There are no U.S. military bases in China! So China must be made to look dirty, dangerous, dystopian and dictatorial in Western people's eyes. A real Western media illustration:

Hello Behavioral & Experimental people! I will be on sabbatical in Spring 2025, and one of the things I would really like to do is teach a few short courses based on my book. Please email me if you are interested in me coming to your institution! jamesblandecon.github.io/StructuralBaye…

Friends, colleagues, Twitter-verse! The Army War College is hiring! My dept is searching for a Professor of Asian Studies. Application deadline is 9/18. I am happy to meet with potential applicants/candidates by Zoom or at APSA. Reach out and/or amplify! usajobs.gov/job/802829500

@_BriHernandez1, @Christi43704822 , and I write @ejiltalk that international legal regimes on refugees are increasingly at odds with the realities of ecological and gendered asymmetries of climate change, thus reproducing insecurity and inequality. ejiltalk.org/refugees-witho…

Alright, let's start this Substack! I'll use publicly available data and basic econ to try to understand the financing and operations of small selective liberal arts colleges. Help me choose a logo by liking the image you like best (in the next tweets) liberalartsledger.substack.com

Submission deadline for @IMRDC_Official is coming Monday! Last couple of days to get those submissions in! @iimb_official

If you're working on issues pertinent to the US Southwest, the US-Mexico Borderlands, and northern Mexico, apply for the 2024 Hulbert Center for Southwest Studies Contingent and Community Scholars Writing Fellowship. Read more here: coloradocollege.edu/academics/dept…

Now that everyone’s home from #ASHEcon2024, I wanted to expand on a running conversation I had with a bunch of grad students who met with me. NOBODY TEACHES YOU HOW TO CONFERENCE!!! Well, let’s do a quick thread on how to conference (as a PhD student) /1