Guest_hdh

237 posts

Guest_hdh

Guest_hdh

@Guest_zzzz

Katılım Ekim 2024
35 Takip Edilen27 Takipçiler
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K@happyoboeplayer·
@ShanghaoJin 政治是個專業的工作,讓個認知低下,文化程度堪憂的show host來做這種專業工作,這就是下場……葬送帝國的根基!
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Herman Jin
Herman Jin@ShanghaoJin·
历史上有很多singularity point 慕尼黑会议、苏伊士运河丢失、柏林墙、2019年等等 若干年后,大家会把伊朗事件也列进去。随意开战,被迫求和,彻底成纸老虎了
Commentary Donald J. Trump Truth Social Posts On X@TrumpTruthOnX

🇺🇸🇮🇷 White House released full text of the MoU The points summarised are as follows: 1. The U.S. and Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. 2. The U.S. and Iran will respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. 3. The U.S. and Iran commit to achieving a final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent. 4. The U.S. will immediately begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic will be in proportion to the number of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its military forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. 5. Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz. 6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, as part of the final deal after 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions will be granted. 7. The U.S. will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UNSC resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. 8. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with at a minimum a downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs. 9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region. 10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc. 11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. 12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and the subsequent deal. 13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal. 14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

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Guest_hdh
Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@ryanwang 正交背板推迟的原因是什么呢?M10不是还在测试吗
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kokycpcb
kokycpcb@pcbanalysis·
Our current thesis remains unchanged: PTFE is merely a secondary, non-mainstream solution that is highly unlikely to achieve commercial mass production. Instead, the M10Q configuration remains the clear preferred choice, primarily because it offers a broader pool of qualified suppliers and commands strong deployment support from tier-1 PCB fabricators.
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Safe BLAST Army
Safe BLAST Army@SafeBLASTarmy·
@TedPillows Semis leading the way down after a SemiAnalysis report flagged Nvidia Rubin Ultra delays into 2028. Institutions had their hedges in place before the open, so the move was fast and clean. The rest of the market just followed the chips lower.
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Guest_hdh
Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@wyn05230602 @sixpanny159920 扯淡呢嘛,生益都只是初步测试通过,后面路还长着呢,怎么也轮不到这种情绪票通过认证
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追风
追风@wyn05230602·
@sixpanny159920 昊华科技(已通过英伟达M10相关架构认证) 东岳集团(与下游头部覆铜板厂商合作开展实质性验证) 这两来说 昊华应该好一点,东岳集团市值低
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上头资本
上头资本@sixpanny159920·
Rubin Ultra 平台在 PCB 材料选择上的重大技术变更,传统的 M9+ 玻璃布方案在电气性能上已无法满足 Rubin Ultra 平台对 337G 及以上 SerDes 信号传输的要求,因此 PTFE被选为正交背板的核心材料。 PTFE 材质较软,传统钻孔易产生毛刺。通过引入二氧化硅(SiO2)填料改性,显著提升了机械刚性,目前已通过量产可行性验证。 未来将采取“PTFE 与 M9+ 电子布混搭”的策略,预计PTFE 初期预计占据 10% 市场份额,后续将逐步替代传统玻纤材料。 TAM方面,预计 2027 年 Kyber 平台对应的 PTFE CCL TAM 可能达到 80 亿元人民币。后续随着 Feynman 平台的量产,将带来额外的需求增量。midplane相关产品的量产预计将从 2026 年底开始。 生益科技,预计将成为 PTFE CCL(覆铜板)的主要供应商。 台虹,目前处于产品认证阶段,极大概率成为第二供应商。 上游原材料方面,东岳集团是生益科技的关键 PTFE 原材料供应商,大金和昊华化工为潜在原材料供应商。 此外,随着 PCB 制造工艺变复杂(如 PTFE 钻孔与去钻污),PCB 制造厂商将受益。在新的设计架构下,PCB 总价值与 CCL 材料价值的比例有望从目前的 2-2.5 倍提升至 3-3.5 倍,显著提升了 PCB 厂商的单位产品价值。
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Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@zephyr_z9 If PTFE is finalized for M9/M10 CCL, then Shengyi and Chinese PTFE suppliers will have a huge chokehold over Nvidia. If not choose PTFE,it should turn to Q-glass that most of capacity in China too.
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Zephyr@zephyr_z9·
Simple, the Trump admin cannot roll out new restrictions/export controls targeting China because the Chinese can/will retaliate We are not in the H100 era, where the supply chain was largely concentrated in Taiwan/Korea/Japan Becuz of shortages, Nvidia & hyperscalers have been forced to qualify Chinese suppliers, especially in the PCB supply chain and electrical components like transformers China had a chokehold on optics (optical fibers and transceivers) from the beginning, and this is just getting amplified as optical content in DCs is increasing Coherent CEO went to China with the Trump delegation, asking for InP for lasers I want u guys to study the optical fiber preform supply chain, and who are the largest suppliers Btw, Chinese exposure is also spreading to other parts of the AI supply chain High end MLCCs use Dysprosium Oxide and China supplies most of it to Japanese producers Tungsten ban from China is causing the prices of WF6 gases to shoot up If PTFE is finalized for M9/M10 CCL, then Shengyi and Chinese PTFE suppliers will have a huge chokehold over Nvidia Google is in talks with Envicool for the supply of cooling components If diamond-copper composites are adopted as heat spreaders for GPUs, then China will establish a chokehold there as well, since most of the synthetic diamonds are produced there and China is at the cutting edge of this tech I haven't even talked about the use cases of gallium, germanium, tellurium, antimony, bismuth, fluorine, terbium, yttrium, ferrite cores in the AI supply chain, and how China has a chokehold there The Trump admin is constrained in a lot of ways and can't unilaterally export control stuff
Chris McGuire@ChrisRMcGuire

I share concerns about China’s access to advanced AI models, but if the admin feels so strongly about this, I have a series of questions it should answer: - Why did it loosen export controls to allow AI chip sales to China, which allow China to build its own Mythos? - Why is it not enforcing existing export controls that would prevent China from smuggling AI chips from Southeast Asia and other countries? - Why is it not enforcing existing export controls that would prohibit Chinese companies from training advanced AI models on remotely accessed AI chips? Or imposing tighter controls on remote access? - Why has it still not closed a loophole it created that allows Chinese front companies outside China from making AI chips at TSMC or Samsung? - Why has it not tightened controls on China’s access to semiconductor manufacturing equipment (which have not been updated in over 18 months - the longest the US has ever gone without updating them)? - Why has it not imposed equivalent controls on all advanced AI models being served to China/Chinese companies? - Why did it restrict access to all countries and foreign nationals accessing Mythos/Fable, not just China? If the admin was serious about addressing the challenges posed by China in AI, it would be using export controls to address all of these questions and build a comprehensive strategy to prevent China from building or obtaining advanced models. But over the last 1.5 years, it has loosened or ignored controls on China, and only opened new loopholes in controls it inherited. If the admin truly has deep concerns about China’s access to advanced models, it has to act accordingly. It isn’t.

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Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@rexsaikyo @imyu_uymi 6.1這個大V才發過這個消息,今天又重新發一次,整個台灣PCB產業都認爲這是不實信息
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Rex
Rex@rexsaikyo·
@imyu_uymi 昨天撿的發哥恭喜賺錢!CCL是因為有小作文,傳聞M9等級可能改用PTFE CCL(不使用玻纖布),剛好台虹的氟基板團隊有研發在送認證。台虹今天亮紅燈。但我還是要說,這是應該是這一兩年間,每年都會流傳一兩次小作文殺CCL的鬼故事。王者台光逢低買進,長期的勝率高!技術&產能&二代董的手段超高!
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𑁊^. .^𑁊
𑁊^. .^𑁊@imyu_uymi·
今天是漲了也無感 這禮拜最後一個交易日 怕週末川投顧突然搞事本來想買股 點開損益發現 沒東西可以賣呢這麼綠啊ᯣ_ᯣ 只好放棄 . 把台光電買回來等過五千再賣掉 嘿嘿(ง ˙˘˙ )ว 還要留點現金繳卡費
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Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@jukan05 @sssjeffpu I am noting this here to help assess the future credibility of both @jukan05 and @sssjeffpu.@jukan05 seems to rely on sources stemming from minor rumors circulating in China—the kind of posts that invariably inject the author's own personal agenda when sharing information.
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Guest_hdh
Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
It is quite interesting: on June 1st, @jukan05 reposted @sssjeffpu views regarding Nvidia’s adoption of PTFE, and then reposted the exact same content again on June 12th—material that the Taiwanese PCB supply chain widely regards as misinformation.
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Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@pcbanalysis Glotech 5 月净利率已经达到30%了,下半年量产明年进一步放量还有不少上涨空间,而且站在明年往后面看还有增长点,估值也可以给的更高。哪怕正交背板延期了问题也不是很大
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kokycpcb
kokycpcb@pcbanalysis·
Driven by the non-stop price hikes in E-glass (+60% to 90% YTD), Taiwan's Glotech has hit record revenues, and Nan Ya keeps growing its revenue month-over-month. If you want to track the actual performance and profit conversion of the E-glass rally, looking at these two companies is your most direct bet
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Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@ShanghaoJin @RYANHINGSHING 现在要在scale up使用光通信最便宜的就是光模块,但成本还是非常夸张,GH200英伟达就想尝试nvl576用光模块进行全连接,扩展成本指数提升,成本爆炸没有客户愿意
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Herman Jin
Herman Jin@ShanghaoJin·
@RYANHINGSHING 不用CPO InP fab需求也会更爆表 AXTI跌什么 谢谢大家🙏
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Ryan Leung 梁興盛, CFA
Ryan Leung 梁興盛, CFA@RYANHINGSHING·
關於SA爛文章: -國內CPO鬼故事: CPO量產計劃時間延期一季度, 經過不少券商認證 -又不是重大延期, 重要嗎?😅 -不管走什麼路線(可插拔/NPO/CPO), 結構性瓶頸也是光源, 而且問題只會變得越來越差了, 需求越來越高 -差別在於純粹做可插拔的廠商什麼時候被衝擊 所以 $LITE $COHR $AAOI 跌什麼? 謝謝大家
Herman Jin@ShanghaoJin

市场上胡说八道人太多,原因还是不少人真一知半解,而却管着大笔钱 你第一次去AWS上租台机器都得找半天,何况CPO要焊在芯片旁边。有点问题不是太正常了么?即使过度NPO,光源还是缺货,慌啥呢 其实就在等这鬼故事~我所知道的是:全产业链还是在“头铁”地推进CPO。Period ps投研问Funda @himself65

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Guest_hdh
Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@aleabitoreddit Mizuho可信吗?2028年 3500万TPU出后都敢写进报告里的机构
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

$NVDA Networking Senior Vice President refuting recent analyst reports on delays: - “ the most exciting stuff is co-packaged optics.” - There is no delay in H2 CPO product delivery schedule. - CPO switch will enter mass production and begin ramping up customer deliveries as planned in the second half of 2026 This was a media article, original interview source credit should have been credited to Tae Kim / Computex. Something fun to note too was this quote “Gilad was VERY enthusiastic about the CPO ramp from Nvidia.” Both near term and long term. Yeah… I’m extremely bullish on CPO alongside Nvidia.

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yslee
yslee@yslee1895lyx·
@slaytrickor 这些导演在中国主流语境里是边缘人 99.99%的中国人没看过他们的电影
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슬트
슬트@slaytrickor·
중국을 혐오 표현으로 쓴다는 게 신기하다. 아마 당신이 비간, 지아장커, 로예, 디아오 이난의 영화를 못봤기 때문일 것..
슬트 tweet media슬트 tweet media슬트 tweet media슬트 tweet media
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Tazza✨️🌤☁️⁹
Tazza✨️🌤☁️⁹@ShiningThailand·
@Falleninforest ผู้หญิงที่นู่นน่าจะหาแฟนง่าย สังคมที่ผู้ชายเยอะกว่าผู้หญิงและห้ามเป็นเกย์อีก ต่อให้แอบเป็นเกย์ก็ต้องคบผู้หญิง แฟนคงหาง่ายกว่าบ้านเราที่ผู้ชายรักกันเองไปแล้วยี่สิบเปอร์เซ็นต์
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เอี้ยนเฟย 燕飛
นี่อยู่จีนมาเป็นเดือนแล้ว สิ่งหนึ่งที่ไม่คาดคิดมาก่อน คือ เรื่องความโสด ตอนอยู่ไทยรู้สึกว่าตัวเองโสดแบบมีคุณภาพโคตร คือทำอะไรคนเดียวได้หมด อัพสกิลได้ทุกเลเวล ไม่เคยรู้สึกเหงา ชอบอยู่คนเดียวมาก แต่พอมาอยู่จีนในแบบที่ไม่ได้มาเที่ยวอ่ะ ยอมรับเลยก็มีสะอึกอยู่หลายช่วงอ่ะ 55555 คือถ้าอยู่จีนเดินมาสิบคนมีแฟนไปแล้วแปด ทุกคนแลดูมีแฟนอ่ะ ไม่ว่าจะผอม อ้วน รูปร่างแบบไหน แล้วคู่รักคือแสดงความรักกันแบบขั้นสุดมากก เดินจับมือกันนี่เบสิกโคตรมียันจูบกันใต้ต้นไม้ในมหาลัยที่เป็นที่คนเดิน คือปกติที่ไทยบ้านเราจะไม่ทำแบบนี้ ก็อดรู้สึกอื้มม 5555555 เหมือนเราแปลกแยกอ่ะ นิด ๆ แบบขำ ๆ นะ แต่คือผู้ชายจีนเค้าแบบ โคตรเทคแคร์ชิบหาย นี่แอบอึ้งว่าคือเข้าร้านพวกเสื้อผ้าเสื้อในผู้หญิง เครื่องสำอางไปกับแฟนด้วยเหรอวะ คือปกติถ้าที่ไทย แฟนมักจะรอข้างนอกร้านงี้ อะไรใหม่ๆ
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Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@ZSNOWDON2009 @Lixon236 她这影响力完全可以套现割韭菜,再跟内地机构里应外合,随便赚钱,一下能套一堆
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MAMA@ZSNOWDON2009·
@Lixon236 感觉白毛女是收钱办事,这事很奇怪
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Lixon
Lixon@Lixon236·
整个大A所有机构研究师分析师还不如一个吹票的网红,hahahaha,可笑
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Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@whoislubiao 全国甚至全球经济压力这么大,这种时候出来刺激矛盾,这种人真是嫌自己活得太久了
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卢比奥不是鲁比奥
卢比奥不是鲁比奥@whoislubiao·
张小龙在人大翻车,表面看是嘴臭,深层看,是中国大学生困境的一次公开露底裤。 人民大学是什么地方?顶尖名校,又红又专。按理说,这里的学生应该谈理想、谈公共责任、谈如何改变社会。可现实是,很多人的第一选择不是改变世界,而是考公、考编、进体制。 这不是学生没志向,而是时代把志向磨成了求稳。 大学越来越像大型就业缓冲区,名校生也越来越像精致版做题机器:课堂上谈国家命运,宿舍里刷申论行测;嘴上说理想主义,简历上只想写“服从安排”。 所以张小龙那番话为什么刺耳?因为里面不只是直勾勾的羞辱,也有一种“怒其不争”的极大失望。 他失望的可能不是某几个学生,而是看到中国最顶尖的一批年轻人,已经被现实训练得太乖、太稳、太不敢想象。名校学生本该有锋芒、有野心、有对世界的好奇,可现在很多人的终极目标,只剩下一份稳定编制。 当然,他的问题也很明显:失望可以理解,但表达方式很糟糕。他不是在真诚讨论年轻人的困境,而是用一种居高临下的方式,把学生的焦虑当成了自己发泄情绪的靶子。 更讽刺的是,粉笔本身就是靠考公焦虑长大的公司。一个卖救生圈的人,突然嫌别人怕淹死;一个吃着稳定焦虑红利的人,跑去嘲讽年轻人追求稳定,这本身就很荒诞。 但这场破防,破的也不只是人大学生的玻璃心,而是整个强国社会的遮羞布。 名校光环还在,前途却不再无忧; 年轻人还很优秀,选择却越来越窄; 父母还在期待“前途无量”,学生只想先别失控。 当一个国家最优秀的年轻人,最大的梦想不再是创造什么,而是稳定地被安排;当顶尖大学培养出来的人,最安全的出路是排队进入体制,这不是学生的问题,而是时代的病。
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Guest_hdh
Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@whoislubiao 你洗什么地呢,人大的一小部分学生追求什么也轮不到张小龙这种跳梁小丑来批评,自己破防急眼的东西,破防的是张小龙搞清楚Ok?一个完全没有情绪管理能力的人,他爆仓迟早的事情
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Guest_hdh
Guest_hdh@Guest_zzzz·
@JimmyBoook @szslg 一个卖教育军火的有什么好吹的,下次记得去演唱会卖垫高的凳子,生意一定很好,只要不被现场保安赶出去
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zen
zen@JimmyBoook·
张小龙干考公行业,是行业的幸运。 很多人讨论张小龙,喜欢盯着他的脾气和争议。但在我看来,一个人更应该看他长期创造了什么。过去十几年,粉笔帮助了大量普通家庭的年轻人用更低成本获得备考资源,这本身就是价值。 如果想了解这个人,我更推荐看看《罗城村旧事》。看完以后,你未必认同他的所有观点,但大概率会理解,为什么粉笔会是今天这个样子。 至少粉笔把考公培训从传统地推和协议班模式,带到了互联网产品模式。价格更透明、体验更友好、刷题效率更高。虽然考公行业早已过了黄金时代,但粉笔依然是少数保持盈利、持续投入AI功能的机构之一。
zen tweet media
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苏里格
苏里格@szslg·
粉笔的张小龙在人大演讲失言背后的故事。 2023年粉笔港股上市,投资人股份解禁后,高瓴张磊直接套现离场,股价从9块跌倒3块多,张小龙在朋友骂“远离做价值投资的人,尤其是姓张的人”。现在粉笔股价剩6毛多。 张小龙在人大演讲的楼叫立德楼,是张磊捐的,张磊本科就是人大的。
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kokycpcb
kokycpcb@pcbanalysis·
@halflemonade The final outlook still hinges on the ongoing testing and qualification results of M10Q
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