𝕏yroMac

@CardPurchaser yeah ok. if they don’t do this EQL i would be shocked.

2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome® Football PRE-ORDER available May 18 #ad Details: thetoppscompany.sjv.io/xLr1NR

@WaxMetrix price point was significantly lower.

Guys, without odds, I really can't help with today's upcoming Signature Class NFL pre-release. However, it may help to take a look at the Signature Class NBA analysis I did. Not saying it's the same product. But it will have a lot of similarities, including box dynamics and price, which is the biggest part of this putrid equation. x.com/WaxMetrix/stat…

@WaxMetrix you enter the land of bots then. and you will never be able to compete

@GyroMac But it's just....soooo...hard to look the other way when I see a case sitting there staring at me.

I was a bit surprised to see 2025 Topps Platinum Chrome pre-orders sell out so quickly. For 2023 Platinum Chrome, there were over 94k hobby boxes produced. You'd have to think there will be more this time. Feels like they're trying to make it appear "limited" in order to get that secondary market pre-order pricing up. I wouldn't call it limited, per se, but unfortunately, I don't foresee getting another chance at $140/box. Also weird that case max was 10, while hobby box max was 2. I suppose my mistake was going for the case. Was anyone successful at procuring? #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsChromePlatinumAnniversary

@du47222292 it’s the small things that are improving at topps. like limiting hobbies to 2.

Got one! Anyone else??

@OffDaHook35 packaging looks horrible 😳

2025 Topps Chrome Platinum Baseball Sold out already… I’m pretty sure Topps could release a card set of different types of turds and it would sell out right now 💩

@CardPurchaser of course

Do you think Signature Class Football Pre-Orders will sell our faster than Platinum Baseball?

@the27guy only 29000+ higher 😳

Not as rare as a PSA 10 but it’s not too far off either There are 333 PSA 10’s and 443 PSA 1’s So here’s the question for you👇👇

@CardPurchaser no basketball no football no baseball and watch we win star wars 🤦‍♂️

2025 Star Wars Masterworks PRE-ORDER tomorrow on EQL! #ad Details: thetoppscompany.sjv.io/BnOYgq

@CardPurchaser nope more overpriced, fight …..and get nothing sorry true.

Are you excited about any of this weeks card releases?

@KevinBuffalo wait till kalshi or polymarket moves in on the action. global phenomenon then. 🤣

Do other cities party at meat raffles or is that another Buffalo thing?

@AndrewS87482114 @OffDaHook35 topps world…topps rules. maybe in the corner, sure. but on the back loses the appeal of the /50.

@GyroMac @OffDaHook35 I agree, but you can easily stick this on the back of the card. Right smack dab in the middle of the image is lame lol

The Topps Chrome Black HFA are unbelievable Looking on eBay to pickup a few And NONE listed…

@TheInsiderPaper macallan drinkers rejoice !

BREAKING: President Trump says removing tariffs on Scottish whisky after royal visit

@Hunter_Eagleman hilldawg get access to a time machine recently?

HMMM: A "suicide note" reportedly written by Jeffrey Epstein while in custody has been kept secret for nearly seven years, locked up in a New York courthouse. Per the New York Times

@TheInsiderPaper it took AI seven years to write it. backdate the records. and plant it in the courthouse. unless hilldawg magically got access to a time machine 🤣🤣🤣

BREAKING: A suicide note purportedly written by Jeffrey Epstein in a Manhattan jail has been kept secret for nearly seven years, locked up in a New York courthouse — NYT

@CardPurchaser @C2L1E6 wonder which gets shipped first. the LAD opening day set. or the Max Muncy 3HR game card 🤣

@C2L1E6 It's a bonus card for the road to opening day set. If players hit certain milestones like 3hr you get an extra card

Anyone have any ideas about this? Just got this email. Didn’t order anything… @CardPurchaser

@OffDaHook35 @AndrewS87482114 sure it takes away from the card. but it reminds you there are only /50 out there.

@AndrewS87482114 I agree with that Takes away from the card

@WaxMetrix @Topps the Home Fields are numbered fyi to /50

2026 Topps Chrome Black Analysis & Deep Dive First of all, let me get this out of the way- @Topps, your odds sheet sucks. Once again, what should be a very simple, single-format odds sheet, has a fundamental issue that doesn't make any sense. If you need some help putting out quality odds sheets, I may know a guy that would be willing to help out. Just reach out. We can make this happen. I'm sure this analysis is coming too late to help many of you make an informed decision since the EQL entry window ends within 15 minutes of me starting this breakdown. I apologize for that. You can thank Topps for dropping the odds sheet less than two hours before the EQL window opened. Hopefully my quick-hit analysis from earlier was enough to give you a little bit of guidance. Obviously, we're off to a rough start. But this is a rare instance in which a terribly produced late odds sheet doesn't necessarily translate to a terrible product. Welcome to 2026 Topps Chrome Black. Part 1: The Odds Issue A key part of calculating print runs is accurately calculating total sealed box production. Chrome Black is not a complex product. In fact, it is one of the simplest products on the Topps roster. Miniscule production and a small list of parallels make it generally easy to extrapolate. But this odds sheet breaks that. If you calculate total production using autos and insert subsets, you land in a very different place than if you use base parallels. Some variance is normal. Usually within about 10 percent. Here the gap is closer to 35 percent. If you trust the base parallels, autos and inserts look massively overproduced. If you trust the odds on autos and inserts, base parallels come out roughly 30 percent light. So instead of forcing one side to work, I am anchoring to a middle ground that comes closest to satisfying the most equations. It is not perfect. It cannot be with this odds sheet. But it is the best we can do with what we're given. Final estimates should still land within about 10 percent either direction. Part 2: The Basics Last year, Topps Chrome Black format changed from a 1-pack, 4-card box to 2 packs of 6 plus 1 encased autograph. That format remains the same this year. Pre-order and drop pricing was $210 via EQL, a $30 increase over last year. Part 3: Production numbers I'm landing on 87,200 boxes produced (7,267 cases). Due to the issues described above, this could be under-represented a bit. At this level, this means a 10.8% increase in production over last year. Total cards: 1,133,600 Base production: 4,432 per player (down from 5,218 ea last year due to increase in checklist size from 150 to 200 cards) Part 4: Hit Rates Please note, hit rates are accurate even if production numbers are off a bit. Autos-1/box Of note, ~72% of autos in the product are numbered. Parallels- 1.75/box Last year, it seemed there was a parallel in pretty much every pack. This year, there looks to be slightly fewer parallels per pack, so it would not surprise me if there are packs without a parallel this time around. Inserts- 1 per 10.2 boxes. This year there is one extra Insert set. Hit the Lights has been removed, but Damascus and Home Field have been added. This means Inserts will fall slightly more often than last year, but they're still tough pulls. With 12 boxes per case, most cases will contain one insert, but an occasional case may contain two. Numbered cards- 1.65/box This is slightly less than the number of parallels as I'm counting Rookie Design Variations as parallels, but the base version is not numbered. Part 5: Value Map $/Card- $16.15 $/Parallel- $122.07 $/Insert- $2,132.26 $/# Card- $128.10 $/Auto- $210 Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do Considering early secondary market pricing is ~$475/box, this is a no-brainer buy at the drop price of $210, which makes it highly flippable. And it could easily increase from that over time. I entered EQLs on both the Topps site and Fanatics, but expect to take an L on all of them. If you're a ripper, $210 can be palatable as there is some gigantic hit potential. Just know that the checklist is deep and it's highly possible to pull $20 worth of cards from a box. At $475/box, I would highly recommend not ripping. Part 7: The Print Runs Parallels: Rookie Design Variation- ~250 All other parallels should be numbered. Unnumbered Inserts: Damascus (31 card CL)- ~80 ea Nocturnal (40 card CL)- ~90 ea Home Field (20 card CL)- ~50 ea Depth of Darkness (20 card CL)- ~75 ea Unnumbered Autos: Chrome Black Base Autos (111 card CL)- ~300 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChromeBlack

@ALTPEPEEEEEEE bet it spent a week in QA checks. oh i mean it sat for a week in a box and PSA said it was in QA checks.

Ummmmm…does this look crooked? Am I trippin?

@lehman218 @CardPurchaser @ToppsSupport @Topps the cash is tumbling in and there is ZERO competition. they just don’t care…..

They’re spreading their selves too thin. I’m not sure about other collectors but I don’t need 10 diff mlb drops and 20 NFL…..from basic to finest to galactic to super chrome mega finest to cosmic etc etc. how about you focus on your Topps NOW instead so you don’t have to send daily emails to people about delays

Hey @ToppsSupport @Topps You didn’t include Kevin McGonnigle in the 11 card team set despite selling a ton of Kevin McGonigle Opening Day Topps Now cards. Wondering if purchasers of the set will get a bonus card if he hits for the cycle or hits 3 HRs? Also would be nice to just update the set and include him since he was on the opening day roster and is probably going to win the Rookie of the year award. @CardPurchaser