MarginOfRisk

Now apply the same reality check to Covid origin. Natural origin was the PR, lab leaked is the reality.

This episode is about a once-in-a-generation mind working on what may be the most important problem in history. It's based on the new book The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence by Sebastian Mallaby. (0:00) This is the most crazy, ferocious corporate battle that we've ever seen. (2:21) Intelligence is fundamental; it is the root of all else. (3:27) When Demis founded DeepMind almost every investor turned him away. (4:50) Demis is a missionary entrepreneur and out-of-the-box scientist who, through brilliance and extraordinary drive, emerges as the right person for a particular moment. (6:20) I sit at my desk at 2 a.m., and I feel like reality is staring at me, screaming at me, literally screaming at me, trying to tell me something if I could just listen hard enough. That's how I feel every day, so you can see why I'm trying to build AI. I've felt that since I was very young that there's a deep, deep mystery about what's going on here. (7:10) Demis, who blazed the trail followed by rivals, is decent and public-spirited and wants the best for humanity. He has ego; he is fearsomely competitive, but his goal is scientific enlightenment, not money or power. (9:49) Demis has an extraordinary level of determination, unlike pretty much anybody. Astonishing, incredible determination. That's his most defining characteristic: just unbelievable determination. He works, sleeps, eats, breathes the mission 24 hours a day to a degree that I haven't seen with other people. (10:48) There is no 50% mode in Demis. There is not even a 99% mode in Demis. There is only 100%. (14:39) The slightly warped way I took that was: how do you know you've done your best? The only way I could know is basically if I push myself to the point just before death, because that is literally when you have done your best. (19:07) When he signed up for a game he liked to feel that he could win. (20:44) He saw no reason not to start a company and so he did. (22:40) Demis on what losing feels like to him: It's like my soul is on fire. (25:34) Demis was an extreme case of an authentic entrepreneur, not a mercenary who starts with a desire to get rich from a startup then casts around for a plausible idea, but rather a missionary who feels compelled to work on a particular challenge then starts a company as a way of tackling it. (25:57) The good thing about missionaries is that they never quit. Even if they have to work around the clock and pay themselves nothing. They will keep obsessing about the problem. (26:08) Peter Thiel on Demis: “I always say that people aren't really entrepreneurs in the abstract, but there's maybe one great company that somebody has in them. It was Demis's destiny to build this one.” (26:30) "If you invent a breakthrough in artificial intelligence so machines can learn, that would be worth 10 Microsofts." — Bill Gates (32:09) We only wanted hardcore believers. We would go to conferences and tell people we are starting an AGI company. 80% of the people would roll their eyes at us, literally roll their eyes at us and turn around and walk away. We figured that this was a very efficient way to discover who we should be talking to. (32:50) Blessed are those who believed before there was any evidence. (34:17) The way Demis saw things, true general intelligence would make almost anything possible, surpassing the internet, the printing press, or even the industrial revolution in importance. (35:22) Elon had declared that humans needed to colonize Mars in case disaster struck Earth. Demis had countered that killer AI robots might be one such disaster, but that the AI could obviously follow humans to Mars if it wanted to. (36:25) Peter Thiel felt instinctively suspicious of a fellow chess player. A man who had spent his formative years mentally crushing opponents should be treated with caution, Thiel reckoned. (37:07) I'm talking about the biggest invention ever, and investors keep coming back to "Where's the widget?" and I'm like, "I'm going to revolutionize all widgets, so I can pick you a random widget if you want me to, but you obviously haven't got the point if you're asking me this." (37:42) He [Larry Page] was basically telling me, maybe you could build a company like Google, but it would take the best part of your career. If my real mission was to build AGI, then why don't I use all the resources that he's accumulated? I thought that was a pretty good argument. (38:50) Elon tries to buy DeepMind (42:33) Sam Altman emails Elon: "I've been thinking a lot about whether it's possible to stop humanity from developing AI. I think the answer is almost definitely not. If it's going to happen anyway, it seems like it would be good for someone other than Google to do it first." (43:18) If you have powerful people who are able to understand the impact of the technology, they're not just gonna sit on the sidelines. (44:08) Humans had not understood how little they had understood. (44:31) As Peter Thiel said of Demis, "Geniuses are seldom brilliant in a general way. They tend to be brilliantly suited to a particular mission." (46:50) Demis was far more original and far more of a contrarian than most of the self-identified contrarians of Silicon Valley. (48:11) When Demis solves something big, he doesn't pause to spend much time savoring the achievement. (48:49) You definitely can't crack a hard problem if the person leading the team thinks it's not possible. (54:05) This is my whole life's work. I have to do what's necessary. The mission is in me; it's infused in me. You can't separate it from me. (54:28) Demis's core theme is that money and power were not ends in themselves. They were a means to scientific knowledge.

@TimothyS No! Tip culture must die

Yes. 20% is only fair.

@StealthQE4 We the money n Epstein

America is done with wars but no one in DC listens to what the people want. Isn’t this the foundation of this country “We the People”? Apparently not

@inari_oji x.com/hl3133/status/…

昨夜､娘から衝撃的な発言があり急遽家族会議をしました…。 娘曰く「日本人に見られるのが恥ずかしい…」と…。 なぜなのか問いましたら「歴史の授業で南京大虐殺を知った」と。 娘はインターナショナルスクールですので､私は「それは日本人の先生から教わったの？」と訊きました。 すると､「IGCSEのカリキュラムの中でイギリス人の先生から教わった」と…。 ※IGCSE（Cambridge IGCSE）とは、14〜16歳（日本の中学〜高校1年）を対象とした世界的に認められた中等教育修了資格です。 イギリスが中心で､この後にIBやAPなどに進みます。 家内が「そんなこと､していないのよ！」と言いますと､「ママやパパの頃は事実が分からなかったのよ」と… 私から､「1985年に南京大虐殺記念館が中国でオープンするまでは､南京事件って言って中国も騒いでいなかったんだよ」と言っても「それは日本の視点で､世界からは違うよ」と…。 衝撃を受けました私は､添付の記事（日本のメディアではなくNYタイムズ）を見せて､冷静に虐殺する合理的なメリットがないことや､中国のプロパガンダの特性などを話しました。 蒋介石の行動や､南京での日本軍と現地の方のスナップ写真なども見せました。 娘はまだ半信半疑のようです。 私が心配しているのは､上記の内容を海外の教育プログラムに入っていること…。何とかできないか模索中です。

Twitter AI is merging Japanese users n I get to see 13k likes to deny nanjing massacre by the Japan troops in ww2. Crazy!!! Yo Japan wake up, each nation/culture has sth to be ashamed n proud of! ur art celebrates imperfection so accept it in real life n history too!

@inari_oji So sad u deny the massacre where the rest of world sees clearly n evidence is undeniable. Each nation/culture has sth to be ashamed n proud of. By denying the obvious u r setting up a future for ur daughter in which she cant tell facts from fiction. Such bad parenting!

GLP-1s are probably the greatest pharmaceutical breakthrough since we learned how to manage cholesterol. Not ready to put them in the same tier as antibiotics or insulin in terms of shear life saving power. But: -obesity and metabolic disease are KILLING US -AND they seem to have many off target, beneficial effects ranging from cartilage regeneration to decreased addiction... We are truly living in the future.

@TokyoDeepValue How abt just buy index?

Around 60% of all Japanese stocks trade below book value. Many net nets. Tons of cheap assets for autistic value investors. Find them!

Hair loss?! It’s over for LLy pills 😅🤣

@janthecurious1 Hair loss?! Rip 🤣

#novonordisk $NVO $LLY As a $NVO investor, I believe the market is missing several key points in Lilly’s approval. Lilly’s headline efficacy (~10–12% weight loss) comes from 36 mg in Phase 3 Approved max dose is 17.2 mg There is no public evidence of superiority vs Novo Nordisk at the approved dose At the same time, the approved label is broader and less “clean” than the Phase 3 narrative: • GI side effects (nausea, diarrhea, vomiting) • Fatigue, headache, bloating, reflux, gas • Hair loss • Warnings incl. pancreatitis, gallbladder issues, renal effects, hypoglycemia, etc. Conclusion: No proven superiority at label dose - and a more complex safety profile than many investors price in patientcareonline.com/view/fda-appro… $LLY $NVO #obesity #GLP1 #investing

@TokyoDeepValue How abt just buy the Japan index?!

Japanese stocks are the last great deep value trade on earth. Rock solid balance sheets. Monster cash flows. Dirt cheap prices. I find them, trade them, and do it all over again. Follow for the best deep value plays in Japan nobody else is talking about.

@virologyanon @mattwridley Try to assess long term cardiovascular impact has to Do w masking?! U ok???

@HL3133 @mattwridley Yes that's right, the evidence is that it is now milder than the initial wave that killed millions. And we've yet to fully determine its longer term impact, probably never will, with "fully" being the load bearing phrase here. Hope you're still masking 24/7 and isolating!

Correct. I do think it eventually evolved into a milder form is now equivalent to a bad cold or flu, as four other coronaviruses have done in the past, as well as a bunch of rhino- and adeno- viruses. But it was far worse in the early months.

@zebulgar Yeah they did w pocket calculators in 1960s…

The coolest orbital animation I've seen of Artemis 2 Just really shows you how far away they're flying today and also how precise they need to be to go to the moon

The more I look at GLP1s the more im amazed I may be looking at the GOD molecule. Amazed by it's interactions with Cartilege Alzheimer's Addiction Anxiety Longevity Weight management is the least interesting

@TylerAStepke Ideology n tribalism truly is deadly to the brain n logic. Cc @JeromeAdamsMD

We can come together by ending the consistent and blatant mischaracterization of proponents of the lab leak hypothesis. CIA, FBI, DOE, German intel, the majority of Americans in both parties, and every half-decent scientist paying attention favors the lab origin hypothesis. I've yet to meet a single advocate of the lab leak hypothesis who dismisses COVID as a cold. It killed millions of people. I dont think I've met a single advocate of the lab leak hypothesis who wants broad cuts to US science funding; I want additional funding for both scientific research and commonsense biosafety regulations. I want more funding for important new research paths in biosafety and biosecurity. I'm not being snarky here: I genuinely don't understand how someone who acknowledges the devastation caused by COVID can be so unconcerned with the origin of the virus, especially when the most qualified and informed scientists in our IC believe it was the single deadliest accident in human history.

@deedydas Great, let’s see abt urban decay in some major cities…a time lapsed

Blows my mind that we currently possess the technology for Google Maps to turn all the street view images of the entire world into a video game you can play! In the future, we'll be able to say "yeah let's check out New York City 100 years ago!"

Orforglipron/ FOUNDAYO Do you remember when $NVO ceo at JPM said there would be warning for certain statins when using Orforglipron? A few hours later $LLY CEO said there was no such thing in the coming label. Now take a look at the label and warning for drug interactions. If you use higher dose than 20mg Simvastatin you can NOT use Orforglipron…… About 6.5 million Americans use Simvastatin. About 40% on higher dose than 20mg $VKTX

@operationdanish False! This ain’t zero sum market

🚨 BREAKING: FDA just approved Eli Lilly’s ($LLY) Foundayo, the first oral GLP-1 pill that you can take any time of day without food and water. Essentially, this renders $NVO Wegovy pill obsolete. $LLY stock is up 5% on the news, but this is just the beginning. Q2 is about to be 🔥