@cullenroche then US power is essentially meaningless, and US deterrence is dead.
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Hugo Syrmen
3.9K posts
@cullenroche nope. can't do that because Iran de facto controls the Hormuz strait, which means if the war ends now it's a major strategic defeat for America. this would be very different to defeats in Vietnam / Iraq / afg: if the US navy can't control the most vital economic chokepoint...
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I feel like a good solution here is to just create some cool name for a new mission like "Operation Game Over" and blow a bunch of random, meaningless stuff up tonight, declare total and complete victory tomorrow and pack it all in and bring all the American ships and soldiers home.
Can I get an Amen?
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What would you like me to map/talk about the next time ? What should I change on the maps ?
Thank you for following !
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Since the US 🇺🇸 - Israeli 🇮🇱 operations in Iran 🇮🇷 started, more than 15 000 aistrikes happened, half by the IDF, half by the USAF
Since the first day, I made around 10 different maps and gathered multiple others. Here, you can see two zones of strikes :
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@TheSalonDon Trump wants to get out with a cheap deal. opening the strait would take redeploying most of available naval assets + months of convoys etc... (not years). I think that's too big an operation for what trump had in mind, , but the idea that it can't be done is false imo
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@HSyrmen They can’t open the strait without years of war
Look at the geography and military history
If they could.
What are they waiting for?
Why are they holding back?
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The 1979 “Iran Oil Crisis” is nothing compared to this
The world lost oil from Iran (4% of supply)
Inflation spiked to 14% in the United States
The strait of Hormuz was open
Saudi Arabian oil was open
Today Hormuz is completely closed and we have no way to open it
20% of global supply!
No amount of bombs or marines can open that strait without years of conflict
Inflation can go to 50%
Tanning Salon Don@TheSalonDon
I’m shocked how oblivious people are We have no way to open the strait. Iran will keep it closed for months Gas is going over $8.00 SFO to LAX over $2,000 rt Anything that goes on a truck will increase exponentially and inflation will be 50%+ That’s the upside case If Iran is smart they demand all oil is priced in Yuan from now on Petrodollar countries have no choice but to agree or keep getting bombed by Iran US loses reserve currency Now suddenly our debt means something We can’t just print money anymore Either taxes go to 80% or we have to seriously cut the government We’ve never cut the government All major industries and rich people leave Economic downward spiral and likely World War 3 with China/Russia/Iran
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"If all the might of America’s SSN fleet cannot currently open the Strait of Hormuz from a relatively small power like Iran, can Australia’s future SSN fleet really keep our own sea lanes open against a peer adversary?"
This is a really strange argument. 1/ SSN-AUKUS not primarily intended to protect merchant shipping from mines and drones. 2/ SSNs can be used to attack mine-laying vessels and attack coastal launchers. 3/ But which narrow Hormuz-like chokepoint exactly is China going to control and use for this purpose?
Michael Shoebridge@MichaelS_SAA
Sea lanes, straits & subs: How many nuclear subs to open Hormuz? Can 8 AUKUS subs protect Australia's extended sea lanes in 2056, given America's 53 or so can't open Hormuz in 2026? Time to end magical thinking.@EwenLevick strategicanalysis.org/sea-lanes-stra…
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A compassionate woman spent her life feeding and caring for stray dogs. Even after her passing, they waited faithfully for her—now her children continue her legacy of kindness.
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@pkprosol @TheSalonDon the Saudis and the UAE have very capable militaries. and while oil at $200 would cause a recession in the US, it would not cause a major depression. America is in a very different position to the 70s
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@HSyrmen @TheSalonDon Less to lose but still would be a major depression in America. Nobody is coming into this war against Iran. Nobody can. Arabs have basically no military power and nobody else realistically can.
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This is a once every 5 year opportunity to make money in the markets
It’s obvious to anyone following that this will be one of the worst oil shocks ever
Yet it’s hardly reflected in stock prices
This is like when COVID shut down Italy but SPY was still at all time highs
JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
Trump just claimed gas prices will drop as soon as the US-Israel war on Iran is over, "which will be soon." Here is what I just told a friend: "It's Iran's strategic interest to show the world they can effectively retaliate if attacked again in the future by sending the oil price to an unbearable level for US and their allies' consumers. Furthermore, Iran is now openly targeting GCC countries, and it's fair to assume it has a plan to inflict long-lasting damage to their revenue sources, mostly linked to oil and gas exports, so they won't be able to use those to strengthen their armies by building capabilities to strike back at Iran from their territories in the future. As a consequence, the decision to end this conflict as things stand now is not Trump's. In the same way, everyone with 2 grams of brains knows military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz are impossible; the same applies to the possibility of a ground invasion of Iran (it will be a brutal carnage because of the type of advantage Iran's territorial structure gives to the Iranians). By now it's even clear that the majority of Iranians living in Iran support the local government, even if Western media tried so hard to convince everyone outside Iran of the opposite. If this weren't the case, the original plan of taking out Khamenei to trigger a popular uprising would have worked. Period. The only option to tilt the balance of power back onto the US side lies in the use of tactical nukes, but this option is and will always remain off the table because it can open a geopolitical Pandora's box; no one has a clue how it can play out globally. Bottom line: Iran will carry on with its strategy to create an oil price shock till the price is high enough to serve as a future deterrent against any action towards them, and till is high enough, the US and its allies' population will force them to cease the hostilities from their side first." I strongly believe we are heading towards an incredible oil price shock that is inevitable at this point; the only unknown is how long it will last and its magnitude. Feel free to bookmark this post and bring it back up in the future if I am wrong
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@pkprosol @TheSalonDon the US would be happy if everyone traded oil at 60 but has less to lose than everyone else if it trades at $200 because it's the largest exporter in the world. And Iran can't afford to bankrupt the world because it would mean fighting the world too
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@TheSalonDon @HSyrmen Absolutely love this comment. The situation is so paradoxical that I struggle to wrap my head around it. The U.S. would be happy if everyone traded oil at $60. Iran would be happy to drive it to $200 and bankrupt the world. And some cheer yeah Murica bomb their oil!!! Precisely…
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@TheSalonDon Inflation at 50%+? I'll take a wager on that not happening. put your money where your mouth is?
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I’m shocked how oblivious people are
We have no way to open the strait. Iran will keep it closed for months
Gas is going over $8.00
SFO to LAX over $2,000 rt
Anything that goes on a truck will increase exponentially and inflation will be 50%+
That’s the upside case
If Iran is smart they demand all oil is priced in Yuan from now on
Petrodollar countries have no choice but to agree or keep getting bombed by Iran
US loses reserve currency
Now suddenly our debt means something
We can’t just print money anymore
Either taxes go to 80% or we have to seriously cut the government
We’ve never cut the government
All major industries and rich people leave
Economic downward spiral and likely World War 3 with China/Russia/Iran
Tanning Salon Don@TheSalonDon
The “Petrodollar” is a system enforced by the US military that makes oil priced in USD That means every country needs to exchange to USD and have USD reserves to buy oil Which allows the US to print trillions with minimal inflation If that is challenged. Your middle class life is over
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@clement_molin pas d'accord. manque de prépa pour Hormouz OK. Mais prépa defensive de la region... il n'y a que tres peu de dégâts finalement, par rapport a ce qu'on lisait dans les scenarios présentés par les analystes il y a encore 1-2 ans (frappes iraniennes sensées être catastrophiques)
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L'opération aérienne est un succès en soit. Elle est bien réalisée, la suprématie aérienne est totale, on ne sait pas s'il y a assez de munitions mais c'est déjà ça.
Mais il n'y a eu aucune prise en compte de la préparation défensive de l'Iran et de la défense de la région...
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L'opération américaine contre l'Iran semble avoir été moins bien préparée que l'invasion de l'Irak en 2003 face à un Iran mieux préparé que l'Irak en 2003.
Clément Molin@clement_molin
En cartes, les 19 jours d'opérations israélo 🇮🇱 -américaines 🇺🇸 en Iran 🇮🇷 J'ai cartographié 250 villes/villages différents frappés en Iran, 235 au Liban et 170 au Moyen-Orient : 🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️
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@shashj @DickensianYouth true. On the other hand, the American military will learn lessons that are better learnt fighting Iran than China... Glass half full or half empty?
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I wrote this week with @DickensianYouth on how the Iran war might affect US military power for years to come, depleting stockpiles & eroding naval readiness. The war is a testing ground for new technologies. But it could also reveal some tactics to China. economist.com/briefing/2026/…
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@shashj Would the iranian government have any revenue at all if it’s oil and gas infra is shut down?
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@clement_molin correct. but the point still stands that if the US cut off military sales to europe, Ukraine would be in serious trouble.
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Americans will make you believe the US 🇺🇸 are still helping Ukraine 🇺🇦
"Military sales" is not assistance, especially when the money used to buy this is from another country. When Sweden is paying for US Humvee to Ukraine, this is not US military aid but Swedish military aid.
Intelschizo@Schizointel
Oh, would you look at that another chart that falsely intentionally excludes foreign military sales, which as the department of State classifies is literally military assistance over $13 billion in the past year sold to Ukraine, but you don't count that in the chart. Over 3,000 air-launched cruise missiles have been provided to Ukraine by the United States In the last year but your chart doesn't show that and nor does it show that the Europeans have purchased more Russian energy than Total aid that they have given to Ukraine.
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@TheSalonDon less deportations than Biden? I thought the deportation numbers were pretty high in the US right now?
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I voted for Trump and got completely betrayed
I wanted
-No wars
-Cut government spending
-Release Epstein Files
-Undo Mass Migration of Biden
I got
-Unprovoked War in Iran
-Biggest Spending Bill Ever
-Epstein Cover-Up
-Less deportations than Biden
Will be voting democrat in November to block this admin
OSZ@OpenSourceZone
CNN: This [Iran War] is tremendously popular among MAGA MAGA approval of U.S military action in Iran 🟢 Approve: 89% 🔴 Disapprove: 9%
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@HarryToe57 @ArmchairAdml Agree with this. But then the quality of US-europe relationship doesn’t come in to this argument either. My main point is: europeans would be unlikely to get involved no matter how tight the US-Europe relationship is, and trump’s comments make no difference in that regard
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@HSyrmen @ArmchairAdml I dont think they would help because the US asked. Theyd help because their risk calculation is different. The closure affects them more than it does the US. The US has additional economic measures that can be implemented to stave off a crisis, Europe does not.
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“We have beaten and completely decimated Iran…” - Trump, last night.
Perhaps if he hadn’t spent the last year criticising NATO allies and downplaying their contributions to the previous wars, they’d all be more willing to assist.
You can’t bully and push everyone around, and then expect them to answer a call for help.
Faytuks Network@FaytuksNetwork
FT: Trump warns NATO countries of a “very bad future” if they don’t join the U.S. naval effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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@yarotrof agree with you there. they made the smart move when they realised their massive barrages wouldn't work after the 12-day war. they're in it for the long haul - and good luck preventing from sending drones across the strait...
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I wouldn’t read this as optimistically. Iran has retained a steady capacity to fire 30+ ballistic missiles *every day* in the past week+, and anecdotally seems to have a higher hit rate because of degraded air defenses.
Dmitri Alperovitch@DAlperovitch
A 3-day moving average of Iranian ballistic missile launches and drones. Clearly trending in the right direction on missiles. Drone launches ticking up though Credit to @MarioLeb79 for aggregation of raw data
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@clement_molin He hasn’t ‘broken up’ with america’s asian allies. Nor with european allies for that matter, although the relationship there is more tense. Iran is a massive gamble but we’re only two weeks into it so let’s see how it plays out over 6 months
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Trump, who promised stability and peace, did the exact opposite.
The US president started more wars than he stopped, broke up with his main European and Asian allies, was fooled by Russia and Israel, and triggered the beginnings of an economic crisis that will affect Americans.
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The Israeli 🇮🇱 - American 🇺🇸 war in Iran 🇮🇷 now started 2 weeks ago
The Middle East is sinking into war, Iran has not fallen, and an economic crisis looms. What happened to MAGA ?
🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️
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