Robby

@bennpeifert Which Hilton is this?

scary movie recommendations while camping?

@moreproteinbars Looks like straight up short vol there Tina.

@SawyerMerritt Tesla rwd can’t even enter its own garage on the mean winter day in Canada

Tesla has launched a new Model 3 lineup in Canada, introducing the Model 3 Premium RWD starting at $39,490 CAD (that converts to just $29,000 USD!). Tesla has also cut the Model 3 Performance price by 17% to $74,990 CAD (from $89,990). The Model 3 Premium RWD trim is about 50% cheaper than the previously lowest-priced Model 3 Long Range ($79,990 CAD) in Canada, which has just been discontinued. The price to get into a Tesla just got a lot more affordable in Canada!

For what it's worth, spot/vol beta is hanging out above the long-term average and has been since that big spike in August 2024. Trump 2.0 working to fulfill the promise to Make Volatility Great Again. h/t Robby @HalfersPower

@JeromyYYC Awesome man. There’s one on bow trail bridge on the way into downtown in the right lane. Will report to 311. Thank you

It's pothole season! I hung out with a city crew today. They are working hard to make your commute a little smoother.

@salr_nyc @bennpeifert Dry

@bennpeifert How's the Vegas vol trading community?

Will probably do drinks nearby at Davey's at 8pm and migrate to Audiobar at 10pm. This Thursday, Las Vegas

@ALBACapMgmt Alba write me the perfect algorithm to trade sone volatility then serve me a Guinness.

@FirstSquawk @TheShortBear I shit long are 1.6x shorts super weak conviction.

HEDGE FUND POSITIONING REMAINS EXTREMELY BEARISH LONG/SHORT RATIO AT 1.61 — NEAR 5-YEAR LOWS INDICATES HEAVY SHORT EXPOSURE VS LONGS SUGGESTS WEAK CONVICTION IN UPSIDE AND CAUTIOUS MARKET SENTIMENT

@MrnllMtt If you are finding ways to not use ai your job probably isn’t adding much value

@MrnllMtt No you could be working 8 hour days and leaving early instead of twelve plus

Textbook moral hazard. Unless salary is directly and measurably tied to performance, there is no incentive to be more efficient and the equilibrium will always just be doing as little as possible without getting fired.

VRP negative

VRP nearly compressed.

@matt_lorelli @grandtarghee @PowderMagazine Sweet job going down that pink run bro

I was called a beginner skier on this app a few days ago. Can’t wait to see the trolls do the mental gymnastics to bring me down after posting this clip! 🤣 @grandtarghee @PowderMagazine

@bennpeifert Short sleeves long oil?

Peoplewatching at Las Vegas casinos is the best. One of my favorites was a group of eight Persian cool guys with shirts unbuttoned way down, big gold chains and sunglasses, and mad swagger, who rolled up to Bacarrat Bar at Bellagio and ordered pineapple juice one after the other

@prpl8 Nice, You need the one where you have five of the analysts arguing each other and Rock is there as the intern to make everyone seem smarter.

ask my analyst a few more questions about diesel, it says we are 5mmbpd short all the crude in the world wont fix this, only high prices or end of the crisis

@biancoresearch Sweet ai post Bianca

I am not a military analyst. I'm a financial analyst focused on macroeconomic risk. That different lens might explain why I see something most military strategists and investors are missing. --- The New Rules of Warfare—And Why We Can't Opt Out For nearly a century, warfare belonged to whoever controlled the biggest defense budget. Aircraft carriers. Stealth bombers. Multibillion-dollar weapons systems. That model is changing in ways many aren't appreciating. Ukraine and Iran are showing the West what 21st-century conflict actually looks like: decentralized, highly iterative, fast-changing, unmanned, and cheap. Neither the US nor Russia—beginning in 2022—appears prepared. We might now have no choice but to show we can fight and win such a war. The Ukraine Approach Faced with a small defense budget, a much smaller population, and a vastly outnumbered army, Ukraine had to get creative. They couldn't match Russia's industrial capacity or spending. So they abandoned that playbook entirely. They developed an entirely new way to fight, highly decentralized, iterative, and most importantly, cheap. They also created Brave1—a completely new way to conduct war. Frontline commanders log into an iPad and bypass central command entirely. They spend digital points to purchase equipment directly from hundreds of (Ukrainian) manufacturers. When they encounter a new threat, they message the manufacturer directly and work with the engineers to find a solution, even if that means they visit to the front. The result is hardware or software upgrades that once took months now take days. Here's the crucial part: hundreds of manufacturers compete fiercely for these dollars by offering the best possible product as fast as possible. This isn't centralized procurement. It's a market. Competition drives innovation at scale. Weapons evolve as the enemy evolves in real time. Units are also awarded points for confirmed kills, uploaded from drone video—a powerfully eloquent way to grade effectiveness. But the real innovation might be how they decentralized manufacturing itself. Instead of building weapons in massive, centralized factories that make perfect targets for Russian bombing, Ukraine distributed production across hundreds of small manufacturers—workshops, machine shops, garages, and yes, kitchens. Each produces components or complete systems. This approach serves two purposes: speed and survival. You can bomb a tank factory. You destroy production for months. You cannot bomb ten thousand kitchens. If one workshop gets hit, ninety-nine others keep producing. The network regenerates faster than Russia can destroy it. This is why the manufacturing process includes actual kitchens—it's not a metaphor. It's a strategy. The Metric That Defines a New Era The result is staggering: at least 70% of battlefield casualties now come from drones. This is the first time in over a century that the primary cause of combat death is neither a bullet nor an artillery shell. Since World War I, industrial warfare meant industrial killing. Ukraine has broken that equation entirely. As a result, Russia is now controlling less territory than at any point since 2022 and going backward. In March, Ukraine made gains while Russia recorded no gains for the first time in two and a half years, and Drone-led offensives recaptured 470 square kilometers while paralyzing 40% of Russian oil exports. Ukraine has lowered the "cost per kill" to less than $1,000 per casualty—a 99.98% reduction from the millions of dollars that were common in the post-9/11 wars. This isn't an incremental improvement. This is a complete inversion of modern military economics. Yet the Western defense establishment is not learning from this. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger mocked Ukraine's entire approach. In The Atlantic, he called Ukrainian manufacturers "housewives with 3D printers," dismissing their work as "playing with Legos." They are not studying this revolution. They are mocking it. And the "housewives with 3D printers" are beating the Russian army! Ukraine Is Now in the Middle East The US Military and Gulf states face an eerily similar problem. Iran's Shahed drones threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that funnels 21% of global oil. They cannot fend off Iran by firing a $4 million Patriot missiles at $20,000 drones. They need what Ukraine has discovered: a decentralized, rapidly adaptive defense network that doesn't require centralized industrial capacity. That's why Ukraine just signed historic 10-year defense deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Over 220 Ukrainian specialists are now on the front lines of the Persian Gulf—exporting not just weapons, but a completely new doctrine of how to fight. The precedent is set. The model works. Everyone is watching. Mosaic On April 1st, Trump threatened to bomb Iran "back to the stone ages" if they don't reopen the Strait within weeks. It's the classic 20th-century playbook: overwhelming offense force, massive bombardment, industrial-scale destruction. The problem? That playbook doesn't work against distributed, cheap, rapid-iteration systems—especially when your enemy is organized under a mosaic structure. Iran's "Mosaic Defense" doctrine is a decentralized command system where authority and capability are distributed across multiple geographic and organizational nodes. Each region operates semi-autonomously with overlapping chains of command and pre-planned contingencies. It's designed so that when you destroy the center, the edges keep fighting. You cannot decapitate a system with no head. You cannot out-bomb your way to victory when your enemy is not centralized; this was the solution for 20th-century industrial warfare. Defense Wins Championships 21st-century asymmetrical threats require defensive shields, not aggressive offenses. Ukraine has built exactly that: rapid-iteration defenses, decentralized manufacturing, commanders empowered to buy solutions in real time and rewarded for success. That same defensive model may hold the key to opening the Strait of Hormuz. Not through massive offense, but through the ability to adapt and defend quickly. Why We're Stuck Whether you viewed this as a war of choice or not, it has now become a war to keep global trade open. And that makes it inescapable. This is precisely why the US cannot declare victory and walk away from the Strait of Hormuz— or TACO. Every adversary on the planet will interpret American withdrawal as confirmation that cheap asymmetric systems work against powerful centralized platforms. And these adversaries might have sent us a message last month. In mid-March 2026, an unauthorized drone swarm penetrated Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home to the U.S. Air Force's Global Strike Command. The fact that this happened not overseas but in the United States, and that these tests occurred just weeks ago, underscores how close this threat is now. They didn't attack. They announced their presence. Every adversary watching learned that cheap drone networks can reach into the US. The Global Supply Chain Risk If the US abandons the Gulf while Iran holds the Strait contested, markets will price this as validation that cheap systems can hold global trade hostage. The current market disruptions will become permanent. Supply chains will have to pivot from "just-in-time" efficiency back to "just-in-case" redundancy. Inflation returns as safety costs money. Trade routes diversify away from vulnerable chokepoints. The global friction tax becomes permanent. The Unavoidable Truth Once you prove that cheap, asymmetric systems can hold global trade hostage, that knowledge spreads globally and irreversibly. Every adversary learns the same lesson: you don't need a $2 trillion Navy—you need $20 million in drones and the will to use them. Withdrawing while the Strait remains contested would permanently validate this model. Supply chains shift to "just-in-case" redundancy. Insurance costs rise. The friction tax becomes structural—baked into every global transaction for decades. The cost of staying is measured in months. The cost of leaving is measured in decades of economic drag. We cannot leave unfinished business.

@BankofVol God damn ChatGPT is like nails on chalkboard.

Why this is ES positive? While the war was active, Iran had a clean justification for closing Hormuz — it was an act of war, defensible under any framework. But if Trump ends the conflict without making reopening a condition, Iran loses that cover. You can’t keep a global chokepoint closed in peacetime without antagonizing every single country that depends on it — China, India, Japan, South Korea, the entire EU. That’s not fighting the US anymore. That’s fighting the world. So Iran will almost certainly let oil flow again — but they’ll extract maximum value on the way out. That’s where the toll system comes in. It’s their face-saving exit. They reopen the strait but reframe it as sovereign authority over their waters rather than a defeat. Oil doesn’t go back to $60. The risk premium is permanently repriced. But the acute supply shock fades. Brent probably settles in the $85-95 range once flows normalize — high enough for Iran to claim victory, low enough for Trump to claim he fixed it. 🤝

@StevenMandrapa Should I delay my next Houston trip? Supposed to book for second week of apr

There is nowhere I wanna go that bad. But they are in Houston I guess so relatable (sorry my Houston peeps)

@bennpeifert Is your friend trying to store 500 ml physical vols?

Can anyone help with nice aesthetic repackaging of bottles in the US? 500ml size. Asking for a friend obviously but please help out 🖤

@VintageNeuroNrd @MadelnCanada Have you swam there though? It’s even colder than it looks

@MadelnCanada I’ve actually sat there, and it is even more beautiful than it looks here. 🥰

Stunning view from the Fairmont Château on Lake Louise-Banff Alberta Canada 🇨🇦❄️