The Harsh Reality 🇨🇦

@RonSFriedman @jkenney I think it's unlikely that there will be any F18s left in Cold Lake in the unlikely event that Alberta separates

I'm a science fiction writer who wrote military SF. And I'd been to real wars in the Middle East. And I oppose wars and think we should do anything possible to avoid a civil war. So... Everything next is a hypothetical thought experiment. In a kinetic war, no one would care to go to court and dispute who is the legal owner of the F-18s. What will matter is if the F-18 are in Cold Lake, and who control them. If following the unilateral declaration the F-18s are still in cold Lake, the base is not protected or captured by forces loyal to Alberta, and there are trained pilots in Alberta willing to fly them, then Alberta will use them with or without formal agreement about who is the owner.

Of course it would not be in the commercial interests of the federal government to suspend shipments on Trans Mountain (TM.) But that’s not the point. The point is that in a worse case scenario, such as an Alberta unilateral declaration of independence (UDI,) Canada would have enormous leverage, including the ability to block Alberta energy exports. This is most obviously the case re: federally-owned TM. Apart from their ability to reduce or stop shipments, do you really think the federal or BC governments would continue to advance Trans Mountain optimization, which is currently the best bet that we have for increased egress? Do you really think the federal government would maintain its MOU commitment to support the construction of a de novo West Coast pipeline? Even if it wanted to, federal paramountcy over interprovincial pipelines, grounded in 92(10)(a) would cease to exist following secession, so BC governments could find ways to block operation or construction of pipelines going through their territory, with Alberta having no recourse to Ottawa. Currently all of our pipelines exports to the US pass through other Canadian provinces first. That includes the incomplete KXL route, which passes through Saskatchewan. Since the Republic of Alberta would be starting without an equivalent to the 1977 Canada-U.S. Transit Pipelines Treaty, Ottawa could also suspend the operation of those other pipelines, e.g. the Enbridge Mainline. Canada and BC could also extract further concessions (eg tolls or tariffs) in order to allow Alberta natural gas to feed into the growing number of West Coast LNG terminals. Separatists respond to these realities by saying “don’t worry - we’ll build pipelines to the US and export from there!” First of all, who is “we?” What companies are going to risk tens of $ billions to spend years building a new system of pipelines in the midst of such massive political and legal uncertainty, including the risk of a Biden style abrogation of pipeline permits by the US? Secondly, the separatists seem completely unaware that the left wing US West Coast governments have effectively blocked the export of carbon intensive fuels from their ports. That’s why US produced thermal coal is exported from the Port of Vancouver, BC. Strange but true: Canada’s West Coast ports are far friendlier to hydro carbon exports than West Coast US ports! All of this (and much more) effectively gives Ottawa the clear upper hand in prospective negotiations over everything, e.g.: -debt allocation; - valuation & sale of federal assets (such as military bases, RCMP facilities, federal lands, including airports, etc.;) - allocation of CPP assets; - continuation of OAS / GIS benefits; - termination of citizenship; - visa and work permit exemptions for Albertans travelling to Canada; - export access to the Canadian market; - partition of Alberta per the predictable demands of democratic majorities in Edmonton, Calgary, Indian Reserves & elsewhere;) - support for or blockage of Alberta’s accession to critical international bodies & treaties, like CUSMA, or IATA to allow for international flights, etc.; and - countless other issues. I agree that exercising its massive leverage in such a scenario would be damaging to Canada. But it would be far more damaging to Alberta. Whatever grievances Albertans have with Ottawa cannot be remedied by becoming a landlocked statelet. The vast majority of Albertans know this. It is beyond absurd that we are going to spend the next several months, and possibly years to come, arguing endlessly over this.

@guyjbreton @AbJrogg Western Alberta, and Calgary and Edmonton will join BC 😉

@AbJrogg You have that backwards.. northern BC will be joining Alberta…

If BC demanded a slice of AB, how do you think that would go over?

@thecritcomp @jkenney You should read the environmental clauses in UNCLOS 🤣

@jkenney Canada would be in violation of UNCLOS if they dared to block our exports. A Republic of Alberta blocking East-West trade between the Pacific coast and Eastern Canada would be infinitely more devastating than whatever reactionary nonsense you've dreamed up here. Be serious.

@RonSFriedman @jkenney I was thinking only about flight routes ... it doesn't take much for a flight from Vancouver to avoid Alberta. But, since you brought up military ... those F18s belong to Canada.

That depends if done in a peaceful manner or in a kinetic war. If we are talking about a peaceful manner, Air Traffic Control (Edmonton, Calgary) don't give permission. (No commercial airliner will risk an accident. The insurance will not cover violating air traffic control instructions.) If we are talking about wars, which I oppose, therefore this is purely theoretical... it can be done using interceptors, like F-18 from Cold Lake. (Assuming they will not be evacuated) Or by buying an air defence system like patriot or THAAD or used F-18 interceptors or high altitude drones... Initially manned by foreigners until a local force is trained to operate them. Again... I oppose war. We should do anything possible to avoid it.

@RonSFriedman @jkenney I'm curious about how you plan to "leverage over air transport"?

Ah, thank you for the clarification. You're talking also about Enbridge and not just TMX.... I focused on TMX. We should focus on fixing Ottawa. (eliminate equalization, Net Zero, gun confiscation, and other overregulations and bills that harm personal freedom and the economy.) But if fixing Ottawa is not possible, we should aim for a civilized divorce. No wars.

@its2pac420 @Smil3yAngel LoL

@HarchReality @Smil3yAngel Because I have a job, and live with my parents? You're using Twitter for what?

Canada is still trending on Twitter. I am loving all the pride shown by Canadians for our country 🇨🇦❤️ To everyone outside of Canada being inundated by Canadian tweets, sorry, eh 🤭

@cj_chep @davidfindlaymus @jec79 It's very well documented how the separation movements damaged Quebec's economy

@HarchReality @davidfindlaymus @jec79 I don’t think it’s just the separation vote that did that. Progressive/left-leaning approaches favoring more intervention policies hurt economic growth overall. Especially with excessive regulation and red tape.

Correct. Carney calls Alberta separation vote unhelpful, undemocratic - The Globe and Mail apple.news/Ay6fTZ_-0TWac7…

@kgthorne68 @mario4thenorth Exactly. As an urban Albertan, I demand that we end equalization payments to rural Alberta

@HarchReality @mario4thenorth just like rural Alberta

You can only abuse people for so long, until they decide to fight back. An apology is owed. And for Albertans, an apology will not be enough. For starters, they need to fix the seats issue, among many many other things I hope they do not leave. But I do not blame my friends.

@CalgaryDave @TheBreakdownAB You literally put the separatist threat in writing

@TheBreakdownAB Yeah, because I'm seriously threatening Alberta to kick them out... Grasping at straws, Forever Canada. Praying that something sticks. Nobody's kicking any of Alberta anywhere, but we are leaving.

Wherein the separatists, who have a chief grievance of being land locked, threaten to land lock a city for not aligning with their political views. Irony is the new natural resource in Alberta. #abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

@TheBreakdownAB Imagine shouting about democracy, and then threatening retribution against 1.5 million people for disagreeing with you

@its2pac420 @Smil3yAngel How can you afford to spend $15/month on a blue dot?

@Smil3yAngel Canada can't afford food, housing, rent. Liberals are stupid to make good policies.

@jmm420xx @Smil3yAngel But you can afford to spend $15/month on a blue dot?

Fake pride? You can't be serious. What do we have to be prideful of? We can't afford anything. We can't afford food, or rent, or bills. Crime is up, mass immigration and inflation. Jobs leaving, businesses closing and leaving, housing starts down, homelessness up, drug crises up. Yet here you are gaslighting us into believing we are still doing great. When will you stop fucking lying for once and call out what a disaster our country is?

@DustyRoseYYC Less than 10% of our population is employed in oil and gas

"Investment in Alberta is fleeing because of the separatists" Uh-huh. #abpoli #cdnpoli #AlbertaIndependence

@davidfindlaymus @jec79 @cj_chep Before it's separation votes, Quebec was Canada's financial hub. The separation votes TURNED it into a "have not" province

@HarchReality @jec79 @cj_chep It didn't help. That is for sure. But it has come back in a different form but it's taken 45 years. The other differences that Quebec is have not province.

@davidfindlaymus @jec79 @cj_chep And it destroyed Quebec's economy in the process

@jec79 @cj_chep This really does have your knickers in a twist doesn't it? If it's a bad idea, it will get voted down. Just like it did in Quebec. Twice.

@cj_chep @jec79 Alberta built TWO major pipelines to the BC coast in the last 10 years. Why must Separatists ignore reality?

@jec79 Well, it seems like you still have zero clue how the West feels. The liberal government for the last 11 years, has refused to allow Alberta to build a pipeline to the British Columbia coast. The liberal government is holding back the country from prospering!

@cj_chep @jec79 I'm an Alberta citizen. It's nonsense

It’s the citizens are the ones that are asking to vote on it. If you ask the citizens - to them it’s not nonsense. Who do you think you are to decide it’s nonsense?? The citizens are demanding referendum -just like in Quebec they have voted in referendum twice on separation. If the liberal government didn’t ignore the needs of the wet then maybe the wet wouldn’t want to separate?!

@CSmartarsery @jengerson @grok @dantappin The TMX pipeline suggests otherwise

@jengerson @grok @dantappin We are land locked now. By liberal legislation. A Trillion dollars in investment and Trillions more in eventual revenues didn't walk out of Canada because of the Easter Bunny. Liberals created this uncertainty. At least a free Alberta gets leverage.

You think Alberta -- a province of 5 million people with significant oil reserves -- has more resources than ...the UK. A country of almost 70 million and a GDP of, like, 3.7 Trillion in USD, give or take.

@junonewscom @MichelleRempel Says the MP from Oklahoma

MP @MichelleRempel on Ottawa's treatment of Alberta: "The Liberals have treated my province for a decade like an afterthought." "Mark Carney can't just wag his finger. He has to... tell Albertans when [he will build] pipelines [and] repeal bills preventing investment."