Casper Hauser

@NickKristof @ewesoff @StarTribune Can I order this in a semi-gloss finish?

Take a moment to look at the inhumanity captured in this extraordinary photo running on the front page of tonight's Minneapolis @StarTribune. It shows federal immigration agents immobilizing a protester on the ground and spraying chemical irritant directly into his face. The scene reminds me of the brutality used against civil rights protesters in the 1960s. We look back at those old photos and wonder how the authorities could have behaved so savagely; many years from now, young Americans will look at these photos from 2026 and wonder how anyone could have justified shooting a woman in the head as she tried to drive away, arresting 5-year-old schoolchildren on the street, or holding a man down and spaying chemicals into his face. Thanks to the Star Tribune reporters and photographers for documenting this work; they create accountability, they make democracy work, and they make all of us in journalism proud.

Great question When a bank issues a loan, it does not loan out deposits. It creates new money as a credit entry     You sign a loan agreement & it becomes an asset for the bank     Bank credits your account & the new deposit becomes new money in circulation Banks are credit creators rather than intermediaries Bank-created money is created with interest Because the interest is not created in the money supply, the system requires perpetual growth, constant new debt or defaults This is why the private credit system is inherently inflationary & extractive over time Governments do not create new money to spend directly They instead issue bonds purchased by banks, pension funds, foreign governments, or the central bank This is government borrowing which is printing by selling promises Government-issued money is also interest-bearing, which means it has the same inflationary dynamic as private bank credit creation Tax serve 3 functions in a fiat system 1 Prevent inflation from excess government spending. If governments printed unlimited money, it would raise spending power without increasing production & create inflation. Taxes remove money from circulation, acting as a drain on the system 2 Give the currency value. If the government requires taxes to be paid in its currency, that alone creates demand 3 Redistribute and fund services. Funding services are not the main monetary reason, that’s the political justification. The monetary purpose is inflation control & currency demand Governments spend money into the economy & taxes destroy part of that money to keep the system alive This is the part people misunderstand the most If new money is printed but does not create new goods, new services, new infrastructure or new real output, then you get more money chasing the same amount of goods, which raises prices Examples:     Money printing for bailouts, war spending not tied to productive output, stimulus without corresponding output growth, interest-bearing credit expansion for consumption This type of money requires taxation to remove excess money & prevent inflation If new money is issued to create new productive output, the money supply increases in proportion to real wealth Examples:    Building infrastructure, funding energy projects, paying workers to produce real goods & services or capital investments with measurable output If production rises faster than money supply, no inflation occurs In such cases, taxation is not required to offset the issuance, because real-world value backs the currency expansion After the Weimar hyperinflation & Great Depression, Germany introduced Mefo Bills in 1934     It was a government-created promissory note issued to construction & industrial companies     They were not backed by gold, not borrowed from banks, backed by future labor & productive output & used to fund public work    Money was issued only when workers produced output     Idle labor was turned into productive labor     Factories, infrastructure & goods increased alongside the money supply    The credit carried no compounding interest & money was created only to mobilize productive capacity, not consumption or speculation When money creation matches real productivity, inflation does not occur Germany reduced unemployment from 30% to 0% in a few years without runaway inflation Inflation problems emerged later only when issuance shifted to unproductive military expansion Today’s system is a public–private hybrid Banks create most money via credit, charge interest & expand the money supply Governments issue bonds purchased by banks & central banks, borrow the currency they themselves issue & tax to control inflation created by both government & private banks The government effectively outsourced money creation to private banks & then taxes you to stabilize the system for banks profit They socialize the losses & privatize the gains. It’s a ponzi scheme & you pay taxes to service the interest on banks debt.

I’ve been seeing a lot of chatter on X about “peak cycle” and how the economy looks late-cycle. So I wanted to tackle this head on and share a few thoughts of my own... This is from the August 21st MIT publication: A classic late-cycle economy typically has all the following ingredients:   ✅ Manufacturing sentiment is extreme (think ISM ~60) ✅ Services sentiment is extreme ✅ Homebuilder sentiment is extreme ✅ Consumer confidence is high ✅ Worker confidence is high (JOLTS quits rate rising sharply) ✅ Investor sentiment is very bullish ✅ Small business confidence is high ✅ Job openings and hiring plans are rising ✅ Wage data and surveys show accelerating pay increases ✅ CEO confidence is strong and capex is booming Now, I could add more to this, but when you score all of these inputs and turn them into a single timeseries, here’s what you get (chart 1). Using data from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, The Conference Board, etc., US sentiment, when viewed as a complete picture, remains very subdued. We’re just not even close to the euphoric levels we see late in the business cycle, when everything listed above is stretched to extremes. Peak cycle is when the ISM rolls over from 60+ to sub-50, inventories unwind, and demand cools. Supply and demand reset, inflation pressures ease, and the cycle eventually recovers out of the slowdown or recession – mostly depending on the extent to which financial conditions tightened during the cycle, particularly late on as central banks hike rates and drain liquidity. However, based on this full set of indicators, the data is pointing to something very different. This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum. Another really important factor, and a key reason we believe both the ISM and this sentiment composite will grind higher this year and into 2026, is the sheer scale of central bank easing via rate cuts. Right now, nearly 90% of central banks are cutting rates. That is extraordinary, and on a forward-looking basis, it is a massive tailwind for the business cycle (chart 2).   By my playbook, the time to start talking late-cycle is when the teal line rolls over and begins to drop, as central banks turn to hiking rates to slow growth. Even then, there’s usually a nine-month lag before higher rates hit the real economy. Right now, we’re just nowhere near that... in fact, the opposite is true. To my earlier point, slowdown or recession is largely a function of how much financial conditions tighten late in the cycle. Oil prices are a big part of this equation. When oil runs 50% above trend, that represents a massive tightening and has almost always signaled recession, looking back to the early 1970s. However, right now, we are nearly 20% below trend and still falling, which shows this component of financial conditions is still easing (chart 3). Also, as I’ve pointed out many times in previous reports, when you look at Temporary Help Services, it has early-cycle vibes written all over it (chart 4). Rising growth from deeply negative levels is an early-cycle dynamic. It tells you the economy is in recovery mode, not rolling over. Late-cycle is the opposite: positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, which reflects an overheated economy losing steam. Why is unemployment still rising? Because it lags the cycle. Jobs data is a six-month look in the rear-view mirror. Here’s the thing: full-time hires are expensive. Benefits, pensions, overhead… So what do businesses do first? They typically increase overtime hours and bring in temp workers. Only when they feel confident do they finally lock in full-time staff. That way, they can scale without locking themselves into long-term payroll commitments. So, this isn’t late-cycle. It’s early-cycle (growth up + inflation down = Macro Spring), soon transitioning to mid-cycle (growth up + inflation up = Macro Summer). That’s how I see it, anyway...

@LadyFaceIII @JamesSurowiecki It yet another liberal demoralization project. You are correct

@JamesSurowiecki Men are attracted to women. Women cheering and dancing for men raises men's morale. Men dancing and cheering for men demoralizes men. You're welcome.

What is the actual argument against the Vikings having a couple of male cheerleaders, other than "This is icky"?

@nypost These ears are made for sniffing

Serial butt sniffer arrested again for sticking schnoz in woman’s backsides at a Nordstrom Rack trib.al/NC3Hv70

Oden is right. Here's why:

@YourAnonCentral Has @IfindRetards found you yet? Because you are a whale of a retard

The truth about MAGA

RT @infraa_: Trump doesn't get it (at all) A system that prioritizes an ever-increasing trade deficit, in exchange for capital inflows that…

Most of what I am reading about tariffs is misguided. Here is a quick primer on how I understand what’s happening. Using the Casio. 1- I am convinced the calculus backed-up from a desired outcome both on an aggregate level and at country level in the case of China / EZ 1/10

Market views update Markets crawl higher if headlines remain neutral to benign this week, then freeze as we await April 2nd, which is reciprocal tariffs day announcement or, as Trump called it, Liberation Day. April 2nd is similar to election night. It is the biggest event of the year by an order of magnitude. 10x more important than any FOMC, which is a lot. And anything can happen. Trump could go soft, in which case markets would rally fast and furiously. Or could go half-way, adding uncertainty on timelines, in which case markets would take out the stops of all longs and shorts. Or go all out, in which case markets could easily crash another 10% to 15%, fast. In worst case scenario sh*t would hit the fan then tariffs would start coming off as Trump negotiates hard in the following month, in which case peak negativity would hit around week 2 of April, which would coincide with US Tax Day. The US economy is still strong, but will highly likely slow down due to tariffs regardless of the path Trump chooses. But every economist already expects a very sharp economic slow-down into year end. Which means, it is already largely priced-in. Will share a more thorough update on views around tariffs, probabilities, and their economic impact this week time allowing. Either way, you all want to be prepared and ready to act on "Liberation Day". It will be big.

RT @DariusDale42: Thoughts on this? If @realDonaldTrump was serious about enacting real CHANGE that benefits low-to-middle-income American…

Global M2 vs bitcoin update

Ya’ll never change. Bitcoin is now experiencing its 11th 25%+ correction in ten years and every time everyone reacts like the sky is falling and every time everyone screams that it’s different this time. This pullback looks, smells and feels 100% just like 2017 to me. Rising fiat liquidity leading to massive asset price gains. Right now the new admin has decided that we need: 1. Lower treasury rates to refinance debt 2. Lower mortgage rates to unlock the housing and CRE markets 3. Lower treasury rates to save banks from their collective insolvency China is in a deep recession and needs lower U.S. rates to support its own money printing regime. And print they will. We’re likely going to see massive job cuts via government cuts, tech cuts and housing related cuts. At the same time ISM will likely rise for the next several months. All of this tells us liquidity will continue to flow and the markets will do what they always do in this type of cycle. That liquidity will flow into stocks, Bitcoin, crypto and real estate. Once again… buckle up… 🚀🚀

@krystalball @IfindRetards

Honestly so evil to pull the rug out from under people who went into public service jobs with an expectation their govt would uphold their end of the bargain

RT @ethereum: 0/ Exploring the world of onchain art, a guest thread by @lukeweaver_eth “The greatest artists of the 21st century won’t mak…

@culturaltutor Tom Wolfe’s from ‘bauhaus to our house’ is a great read on this

The Brutalist is about an architect who studied at the Bauhaus. Its protagonist is fictional, but the Bauhaus was real. What was it? The most influential design school in history. So, from fonts to furniture, this is how Bauhaus created the aesthetic of the modern world...

RT @cointradernik: I think it’s pretty clear that what we’re seeing is the lagged effect of this period of severely tightening financial co…

RT @kylechasse: Bitcoin is crashing. Wondering why? The cash & carry trade that’s been suppressing BTC’s price is now unwinding. Here’s…

@TaraAnnThieke Wow where is this image from?

It is correct in that IQ may deepen one's capacity to perceive, but IQ is not alone. If one's heart is muted & one's curiosity is slowly narrowed, told again & again that there is no meaning there is only Technique, then IQ is nothing but a smoother path to Hell.

It is interesting to me that Christianity has never had any iconographic tradition of The Sacred Brain. The AI obsession, the death of reading, of attention, of prayer - it merges Brain & Force (the false muscles below). But of the Heart the transhumanists do not know.

@Bubblebathgirl Lex Luther?

Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) openly says that Democrats want censorship in America: “We are all willing to work with anyone who is serious about doing the work of censoring the American people.”