The Hedged Optimist

Warren Buffett once stated in an CNBC Interview that even if he was guaranteed a major war was starting, he would still be buying equities. $SPY $QQQ $DIA

@KobeissiLetter A stark reminder to trust tracking over political rhetoric.

BREAKING: Bloomberg says tanker tracking data since March 23rd "shows no sign" of the 8 boats full of oil that President Trump said were "gifted" to the US. "If this was some great 'present' you’d think both sides would want it known for their own reasons," Bloomberg says.

@wallstengine Earning $100M in EBITDA means Mastercard would need a 32x multiple to break even on their 2019 purchase price.

FT reports Mastercard $MA is exploring a sale of its European real-time payments unit, the business it bought from Nets for $3.2B in 2019. The unit generates about $370M in annual revenue and roughly $100M in EBITDA.

@KobeissiLetter A 10% spike in 24 hours shows exactly how fragile the global energy supply chain is right now.

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $95/barrel, now up +10% in just over 24 hours as peace talks appear to stall in the Iran War.

@wallstengine Reserving that much for retail is massive

SPACEX IPO COULD RESERVE UP TO 30% FOR RETAIL INVESTORS, SOURCE SAYS - RTRS

@DeItaone $SPY down 1.45%

U.S. STOCKS EXTEND FALL, NASDAQ DOWN 2.00 PCT

@DeItaone A 30% recession probability is a realistic baseline given these underlying pressures.

📈RECESSION FEARS BUILD Goldman Sachs sees a 30% U.S. recession risk, with slowing growth, rising inflation (2.5%), and higher unemployment (4.6%). Despite markets pricing hikes, Goldman still expects rate cuts ahead if conditions weaken. Prediction markets are even more cautious—now pricing ~37% recession odds and rising. kalshi.com/markets/kxrecs…

@KobeissiLetter Now down 27% in 6 months.

BREAKING: Meta stock, $META, falls over -7% after a “landmark” court case ruled that the company failed to adequately warn or protect young users. The stock has erased -$100 billion in market cap today.

Yesterday vs Today

@AnyesVIP @KobeissiLetter Agreed, those are major macroeconomic headwinds. But right now, the indices are mainly driven by geopolitics.

@HedgedOptimist @KobeissiLetter Well, there’s also the risk of inflation. And software. And Private credit.

BREAKING: US markets extend losses, with the Nasdaq 100 now down -1.5%, as Iran War peace talk progress appears to be stalling.

🚨 Heisenberg Observation 🚨 In the last 20 years, the $SPX has gone 16 greens and only 4 reds in the month of April. In the last 20 years, whenever the $SPX was red in March, April ended up green 6 of 7 times. The only time it was red was last year and it was barely red after a rip roaring bounce. FWIW!!

@unusual_whales Any movement through the Strait is a net positive for supply stability.

Trump: Iran allowed ten oil boats through the Strait as a gift

@unusual_whales We are witnessing the conversion of digital liquidity into physical ownership.

BREAKING: Fannie Mae says it will start accepting crypto-backed mortgages, per WSJ

@TKL_Adam Until energy prices stabilize, the bond market will remain at this level

US bond markets are under serious pressure. The 10Y Note Yield is back at 4.40% and the average 30Y Mortgage is up to 6.38%, up for 4-straight weeks. Just days prior to the Iran War, mortgages fell to the 5%'s for the first time since 2022. The bond market needs serious help.

@DeItaone Higher energy prices are driving inflation expectations, which is forcing mortgage rates higher and further freezing the housing sector.

*US MORTGAGE RATES JUMP TO 6.38% AS WAR RATTLES HOUSING MARKET

@DeItaone Are we talking about the same oil market?

BESSENT: OIL MARKET IS WELL SUPPLIED

@joecarlsonshow Same. The math here is hard to ignore.

I will be buying more Meta.

@FinanceJack44 The math here is hard to ignore. The underlying fundamentals are clearly healthier than the current share price suggests.

At $560 $META is now -30% from the all time high, and is the cheapest in the Mag 7 on forward earnings (18x). Don't forget the fundamentals here: > Sustained mid 20s percent revenue growth > $46 billion of free cash flow > 41% operating margin (strong pricing power) > $82 billion of cash on the balance sheet I hate to be cliche, but how does this not work from here?

@Kalshi Didn't the $SPY go down the second he said that?

JUST IN: Trump says he thought stock market would go down more

@TrendSpider 😂😂😂

Trump: "I thought the stock market would go down more, it hasn't been nearly as severe as I thought." * $SPY immediately sells off*