JT Taylor

Seven months of noise and Congress finally ends partial government shutdown (DHS sans immigration) without moving a decibel or dollar at same inflection point from January. Can’t imagine anything gets easier from here hence bringing in filibuster-proof reconciliation strat.

Early consensus on SCOTUS LA/VRA ruling today is that given filing deadlines have passed in many states that impact will be felt in 2028 election(I see a ~20-seat Southern swing to the Rs).Not so sure Trump will be satisfied with that. Going to get ugly. Or should I say uglier.

@Tryng2lookahead @adamscochran Subject to debate/interpretation will be the ceasefire. Troops are still in position so case can be made that ceasefire doesn’t count.

@HedgeyeDC : War Powers Act question: @adamscochran posted that with the last US strike April 8th, May 8th would be 30 days and constitute a reset on the calendar. Any new Iranian strike, or assertion from Trump of a new imminent threat would then add another 60 days. Thoughts?

@Tryng2lookahead @adamscochran May 1 is the 60-day mark from the onset of the war. WPA permits the president to deploy US forces for 60 days if an imminent threat to the US is posed - w/o Congressional approval. The pres can request 30 more days if he deems circumstances are necessary + must inform Congress

Cheering on the astronauts and crew of Artemis II from America’s Front Yard. Out of this world! 🚀🇺🇸🏛️🌳🌕

Hearing Op Epic Fury will continue until US+Israel are satisfied the roots of the now-leaderless Iranian regime have been eliminated. Learned a new word today = compellence. Check it…

Shutdown 2 winding down…Party line vote for the rule (217-214) and final measure with no room to spare for Speaker Johnson- illustrating what’s going to be a rough legislative road ahead in an election year. Most of gov now funded for fy26. Back at it again in 10 days for DH$

@"Canadians are funnier than Americans because their mullets flow with underdog wit—hockey hair meets rural swagger. From Gretzky’s rink-rat chop to Letterkenny’s sharp jabs, the mullet’s Canada’s comedic crown: business up front, party out back, eh! @KeithMcCullough

Margins = motivation. Watch for spreads in VA and NJ. Looking wider than expected for both states reverting to pre-Trump 2024 numbers. Not ideal for Rs. But Rs now have a new poster child for the Dem party courtesy of NYC.

@RHSTAAO @HedgeyeComm @HedgeyeTechLaw Tell me about it…

@HedgeyeComm @HedgeyeTechLaw @HedgeyeDC Both are great at what they do...Glenchur could pump the brakes on the poor dad jokes. As a dad-joke guy myself, even I cringe at his off-color takes.

There are no words to describe how good @HedgeyeTechLaw and @HedgeyeDC are...

@Tryng2lookahead No.

@HedgeyeDC Can the republicans use reconciliation to push through a CR? If they can, is it likely?

one of many interesting slides from our defense policy and budgeting call today with @HedgeyeDC ! $LMT $HII #China

@HedgeyeTechLaw Glenchur. Again. Spot on with his prediction of Trump’s tariffs and the courts. Next stop SCOTIS? Game on Glenchur. You heard it here first.

More Trump tariffs which means more revenue to be refunded if, as seems likely, his Liberation Day tariff power is ultimately rejected by the courts.

Full court press. Momentum moving in right direction. This “15 minute” procedural vote could stay open for hours…or back at it tomorrow if 4 Rs stand firm against.

Falling like dominoes on Cap Hill…Trump/Johnson in full arm breaking mode. Sources say they’re hoping to vote tonight but not sure they have votes just yet.

Trump ok with OBBB delay? Tells me Thune doesn’t have the votes right now. There may be more holdouts than reported…looks like Christmas Treeing in July @KeithMcCullough.

@Tryng2lookahead Yes. Vance would break tie. Lots of moving parts at this hour…

@HedgeyeDC Can lose 3 right?

Still two + undecided R votes - Thune/Trump working the phones w/ long way to go to finish VoteARama with some (???) drama but currently predict bill will pass in wee hours of the morning. House coming back from recess to take it up Wednesday. First stop (hurdle?) = Rules Comm

@HedgeyeDC is hosting another call today with @mccauslj and I to talk about Iran-Israel and energy. Today at 1 PM ET, contact sales@hedgeye.com for access or @Hedgeye

@HedgeyeENERGY @HedgeyeDC @mccauslj @Hedgeye Unrelated to this, just to say thank you for your great job at researching latam energy companies for the #HedgeyeNation. I want Keith to say "Vaca Muerta" in canadian accent next call. ;)