Hedgeye Restaurants
16.8K posts
@HedgeyeRestos
Formerly @HowardWPenney run by his protégé and friend: @HedgeyeFood. Plating up restaurant research for subscription @Hedgeye @ConsumablesPro
@HedgeyeFood they can learn a thing or two from Flower Child's success It's not robots....it's experience
@HedgeyeFood Everyone's favorite food is "bowl"
Sweetgreen Restaurants $SG is a masterclass in what I call a "Tell Stack" As someone that reads countless earnings reports and listens to earnings calls....I've become more cynical about restaurant CEO's in particular. SSS: -11.5% Traffic: -13.3% Margins: 17.4% --> 10.4% Cash: $217M --> $89M January comps: -11.8% When a CEO says "transformation plan" ... that's a tell the current plan failed. When they cut new stores from 35 --> 15 .... that's a tell the unit economics are broken. When they sell their tech division for $186M in cash ... that's a tell they're managing survival, not growth. When they launch wraps at $10.95 ...that's a tell their core customer rejected the $16 salad. Any ONE of these is a yellow flag. All four at once while lapping POSITIVE comps from 2024? That's not actually a turnaround. That's a system telling you it's broken ....and the people running it just figured out what the market priced in 6 months ago. 2026 guide: STILL negative comps. Watch for the leadership change. That's the next domino. Called every one of these problems in August. Every bullet confirmed 6 months later 👇
...and believe me we heard the bull case on $CMG. "2025 was bad, so 2026 will be better"... Who said so? What is the plan? A reliance on macro is not a strategy... a strat that should not be centered around check dilutive offerings & step-ups in marketing (they have no CMO)
$CMG Many old wall resto analysts are back to the drawing board with their "top pick of 2026" getting out the gate on the wrong foot this AM - a shallow EPS beat on true ups...yikes! But Jan momentum and post-storm rebounds right!? How does flat SSS growth in 2026 taste? @Hedgeye
Thought I'd get a lil refresh on the ol $CAVA short. For $33, the Hot Harissa bowl was tasty, but definitely lived up to the 'slop bowl' rep. The chx shawarma was cold, wet, & flavorless, + the juice sogged through the pita—forcing me eat with a fork. @HedgeyeRestos
We will be recording another episode of "Protect the Pile" tomorrow at @HedgeyeAM -- I'm hoping to take a few questions from @Hedgeye nation. Comment if you have question that you want @SamofAmerica @dsaleminvestor and me to tackle.
