The Helpful Punter

@RacingPost @CarlisleRaces Are they?

The facilities at Carlisle are unreal 🤩

@quarterfirst4 Cracking track — always love going there

Hope to return to Naas this summer. Not been since I was a kid when someone like Sackville or Knife Edge were out

@jamesaknight Very possibly. Lots of factors at work I’m sure and possibly a few AI systems overbetting too

@HelpfulPunter Yeah possibly a symptom of the same kind of logic? Ie market focussing too much on the ‘triers’ whereas reality is all the handicaps are super competitive?

If you ran the Cheltenham Festival again as a simulation using Betfair SPs as the true chance of each horse - Prestbury Cup prices to 100% - Ire 1.18, UK 13.3, Tie 12.6

@jamesaknight There’s almost certainly some of that. I also think there are some proper money-following gambles that erupt blindly and return crazy short prices. Mustang De Breuil going off 7-2 in the Fred Winter a good example (and yes, of course I backed him at 14s). Was never a 7-2 poke

@HelpfulPunter I agree - I think the thing that is different to the day to day stuff is that all of these 20+ BFSP runners are still trying for their lives, whereas often it's a signal that today isn't the day.

@jamesaknight Gotcha. The big festivals are really fascinating as tests of gambling logic. More money should mean more efficient markets but on an individual basis there are stacks of horses returned at bonkers BSPs. Kinda gives you hope as a punter

@HelpfulPunter OK - I think we're arguing slightly different things now. Obv SPs wildly different if we know individual results. I saying if we ran Festival again without that knowledge. I get where you are coming from tho.

@jamesaknight I’d say in cases like Johnny’s Jury you wouldn’t now say 22.36 was an accurate SP for him. Had a bad passage and still won. He would be significantly shorter if you ran the race again knowing what we now know about his ability

@HelpfulPunter Yes, albeit each BFSP has the information to date included. The Q is would the BFSPs be significantly different based on the (slight) observed UK overperformance? It's a no from me.

@jamesaknight Bayes would disagree!

@HelpfulPunter Maybe to an extent, albeit I'd argue that wasn't that significant an adjustment tbh

@Racing_Tales Far from a given

Would Kopek Des Bordes have won the Arkle without the stumble after the last? 🤔

@MillwallFC First half I thought you were poor given how awful we are but you didn’t deserve the red card and in the end Rovers were very lucky winners

Defeat for The Lions.

@jon_hindle Actually think it was a blessing in disguise as the hill might not have been his cup of tea. Flat track ideal

Let’s not forget this horse who was balloted out this week and is very well handicapped.

@JamesJohnLovell Genuine question here — do you benefit in any way from these videos? If not, why do bookies let people record them? Is it simply to take the bets (which is totally understandable if so)

As a racecourse bookie those 4 days in March can really shape your year. I can’t imagine there are any that left with satchels less full than when they started. Here’s my highs & lows direct from the betting ring in what was a memorable & profitable Cheltenham festival for the Joe Rooks 🎺 ⬇️🧵

@ryanOTHx @quevega Agree 100%. Just wish I’d been able to solve more of them!

A superb festival with a good mixture of impressive winners, big stories, new heroes as well as some smaller yards & jockeys getting on the board. Thought that the fewer odds on chances made it a much better puzzle to solve and more more open & competitive

@SmarterSig You are right from a statistical perspective but Cheltenham means more to most people than every other day so it’s really only conversational. Of course the real test is how profitable you are over thousands of bets

@HelpfulPunter I think questions like what kind of Cheltenham did you have are unhelpful. I cannot remember anyone asking me what kind of year I have had but then you could ask what is a year but some bullshit measure of time with no relevance to betting

Highlight of my Cheltenham betting week? Two classic value losers in Mustang De Breuil (backed EW at 14-1, returned unplaced at 7-2) and Bold Endeavour (EW at 25-1, unplaced at 8-1). Biggest win: €2.15 on (pity) free casino spins How was yours?

@SmarterSig I haven’t really bet at the meeting for a few years but liked the look of a few this time. Roll on the Flat 😂

@HelpfulPunter Just another week, no bets at Cheltenham. That is the only way to view this week, anything else is emotional betting but well done on those good value bets

@CliffBrumby Ouch — the great game…

@HelpfulPunter 40-1 Kabral Du Mathan ,20-1 Jango Baie & 33-1 Bold Endeavour the ante post highlights😫

@bet4bettor Sounds like an all-timer! Lovely stuff

@HelpfulPunter I had one of those weeks... 11 winners. Marator & White Noise the highlights.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you your 2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup and Champion Chase winners

@Betswot @jamesaknight Still think he’s a long way off winning a Champion but if you wanted to find out this was the year to try as it’s unlikely it’ll be this shallow a pool again.

@HelpfulPunter @jamesaknight Interesting given your previous comment to someone that suggested it was “I’d love a ship full of people like you”

Champion Hurdle for Kabral Du Mathan?