@yuriymatso Always feels the best just before it ends as you know
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Harry Kumar
3.6K posts
@MichaelPBento Whatever it takes so he can pump the mkts until Friday close
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In order to finalize a deal there has to first be a preliminary agreement, the Iranians have been very clear they are not coming to the table for talks.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
TRUMP AIMS TO FINALIZE DEALS WITH IRAN BY SUNDAY - ISRAEL BROADCASTING AUTHORITY
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@MichaelPBento Daily routine to juice mkt, and insider trading blatantly
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Another day of our media lying to us right before the opening bell despite Iran ATTACKING AND SEIZING A THIRD SHIP and saying they aren’t attending talks.
Today’s propaganda outlets were MSNOW (MSNBC) and the NY Post.
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Idk how to break it to all the permabulls talking smack about the supposed TACO that may not be a TACO, but institutional traders stepped on the gas with bearish orders AFTER this post.
Michael Bento@MichaelPBento
Guys this may not be the TACO you think it is. Lets parse the language. He's tacitly acknowledging the IRGC has nominal control of the country and total military control, he's also revealing they are only attempting negotiations with the civilian government, which may not be enough for the IRGC. This is painted as not his idea and keeping up appearances so as not to piss off Pakistan. The fact that he is continuing the blockade and keeping troops in the region ready to go, both of which are a continued violation of the terms Iran has given before they will attend talks. The fact that he left the extension open ended until "talks are concluded" instead of a specified deadline as he usually does indicates that he could begin the attacks tonight or later this week without appearing to go back on what he said here. Pure speculation, but it looks to me like he is trying to lay the groundwork to make the case that the IRGC has done a coup in order to justify an invasion as a "liberation" rather than regime change.
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AMZN has earnings a week from Wednesday. My experience has been when good news is front run just before an earnings report that the setup is a good short opportunity through earnings. AMZN is now on my radar.
FinancialJuice@financialjuice
Amazon and Anthropic to expand AI inference in Asia and Europe, Anthropic to spend over $100 billion on AWS technologies $AMZN
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@Hatter_up @MaxTGoodman @AndrewLiv Point is you don't face thei best hitter, don't let him beat you.
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@MaxTGoodman @AndrewLiv For him to steal 2nd with no throw what’s the point
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Overheard from a Mets fan while walking to the clubhouse here:
“If Mendoza is still the manager tomorrow morning, I’m done being a fan … how did he not walk [Hoerner]?!”
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Easy to joke but seriously,
he shocks everyone with his scripted/unscripted lies and bs, the corruption is transparent
he plays to the shock, whether in threats to end civilization, or "open the ****ing strait", or calling the Pope a loser
yet markets cling to his every tweet
Samantha LaDuc@SamanthaLaDuc
If you don’t know who the shark is, you’re the bait! Trump as Grifter-in-Chief strikes again!! #ES #Oil $WTIC
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Insurance companies say the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
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@SamanthaLaDuc Not picking on you, no one saw this level of ferocious rally, cta big buyers flipping from.short to long, historic vix collapse then you have vol control funds, constant headline to manipulate the mkt, insider trading etc. etc.
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@Hkumar031072 I update every day and you would know that if you were a client
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Mechanical buying/CTAs as reason for the season to goose ceasefire headlines and trigger short-covering.
I’ve been writing about this for clients since literally March 31st:
“FLOWS OVER FUNDAMENTALS”
Neil Sethi@neilksethi
Goldman (Garrett): the speed of CTA global equity buying over the last week is top five all time … +$86 billion over that time frame... gs futures strats have this cohort modelled to purchase an additional $70 billion of the next 5 sessions (flat tape), while past performance is not indicative of future returns … [the three] previous episodes of [similar] accelerated demand have seen short term consolidation, followed by medium term strength for S&P500 (t+1 month =+ 2.19% avg return, t+3m = +8.18% avg return)
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@MichaelPBento Makes sense you just can't turn switch on and off, take times, on the other hand so much manipulation in mkt.
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Any actual oil traders (not Robinhood kids), like old hands want to tell me if this is a stupid idea? Like I said I don’t have much experience with commodities, I’m mostly a bonds and stock derivatives guy.
Michael Bento@MichaelPBento
I may have to go 10% of my book long oil today. This seems too good to be true. I never trade commodities but this is too good an opportunity to pass up. Everyone acting like things are solved, nothing is solved. Everyone acting like we are back to normal supply, we’re not. Everyone acting like regular summer demand increases aren’t going to alter the current calculus. The risk/reward here is skewed to the upside play
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@epictrades1 nice reliable source. Its the same fucking scam artist everyday.
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U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran - AXIOS
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@MichaelPBento What I don't understand is when a big tech stock drops 8% on earnings, QQQ is only down ~0.1%. If NFLX were up 8% on earnings, I know QQQ would be up 0.5-1.0%. Make it make sense
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NFLX has an implied move on earnings of 5.79%, but 50% of the time the implied move is overestimated.
The first big call level is 112 which is 3.75% away.
If NFLX can't open tomorrow above 112 there will be a lot of stock for sale.
Right now they are down 7% AH on a guidance miss.
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@Basssem666 Been trading since 1990, haven't seen anything come close to this, will all 0dte stuff has killed market from fundamentals
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@David6179188752 @MichaelPBento @Basssem666 Haven't seen a gap this big that won't get filled, but who knows when.
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In fairness, the SPY took a brutal 180 as it was plunging and has bounced off the MACD 180.
If it plays out as it did in Oct '23 and for the following few months, up we go for quite a ways - about 20% then.
It really did look like we were heading down, especially with the gap up between the 7th and 8th of April last week.
We still could but....I am just scalping right now and waiting to see how today ends to consider selling my scalp puts at a loss...
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$SPY Of course my original thesis has been invalidated and I said it’s a miss. I’m only shorting for a retracement to 680 or possibly anywhere in the 670s. Anything can happen from there and I’ll act accordingly.
ChumScalper@ChumScalper
@Basssem666 Bassem. You’ve had some good TA that I respect but your original thesis has been invalidated at this point, IMO. Collect the capital. Get into the next play, nfa.
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@MichaelPBento @Basssem666 Just remember last week they were looking for new lows, now they want spx7500 😆
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@Basssem666 I’m getting this kind of concern trolling too today. They act like I’m still calling for new lows when I’ve clearly said my reversal target is now 675. The brainrot is real
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