Hospital Hell

@KobeissiLetter With inflation at 3.5% to 4%, the 10 year should be at 5.5% to 6% and the 30 year at 6% to 6.5%. Mortgage rates should be 8% to 8.5%. Yields are remarkably low, especially considering the deteriorating fiscal situation. The Fed needs to raise the Fed funds rate.

Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

@RonDeSantis Yes. And this is why the Fed should significantly raise interest rates (exactly the opposite of what Trump wants) and at the same time cut its balance sheet by at least 80%

Being above 2% inflation for 62 months is certainly a failure. But the Fed having a target of 2% in the first place is a problem. Just a slower erosion of the currency. A difference in degree, not a difference in kind.

@LizThomasStrat Unless inflation falls back from 3.8% back to the mid 2% range, there definitely needs to be a significant hike in the Fed funds rate.

@LizThomasStrat 10-year Treasury rates are too low based on inflation expectations of only about 2.5%. Does anyone really believe that inflation will sustainably fall below 3%? The Fed funds rate should be about 1% over the inflation rate to keep inflation in check.

Now over 60% probability of a hike. And 10Y at 4.56%. Markets are already starting to test new Fed chair Warsh. Powell's term as chair ends today.

@AndrewCFollett Outrageous! Damn welfare programs! It’s time to kick your grandma and grandpa off Social Security and Medicare.

Defense is 8% of US government spending. Welfare is 47%!

@truflation Based on those figures Truflation looks to be even less reliable than the BLS.

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@MichaelAArouet Germans are primarily renters. Does this net wealth figure include equity in one’s primary residence? If it does, that heavily skews the figures. Net worth is more meaningful when it excludes equity in one’s primary residence which is a substitute for rent.

Germany has a high GDP, yet Germans remain relatively poor. They don’t own stocks, prefer to rent instead of buying property, spend a fortune on useless insurance, and then complain about inequality. Folks, you need to take some risk in life if you want to become wealthy.

@SteveHiltonx Is the $100k exemption for all income regardless of source for a single taxpayer? Does that double to $200k for married filing jointly?

No more punishing California families! As Governor, my plan delivers $0 state income tax on the first $100,000 you earn — and a simple 7.5% flat tax above that. No property tax hikes. We’ll pay for it by getting spending back under control. Time to make California affordable again! ☀️ stevehiltonforgovernor.com/policy/a-calif…

@KobeissiLetter The Fed Funds rate is too low. The Fed balance sheet is too high. In order to lower long term rates short term rates need to be increased and the balance sheet reduced. I doubt that will happen. We will soon have the opportunity to buy 10 year Treasuries at 6.5%.

BREAKING: President Trump says Fed Chair Powell is a "disaster for America" and that interest rates are "too high." The 10Y Note Yield is nearing 4.50% with the average rate for a new 30Y mortgage now above 6.5%.

@charliebilello …. and the drawdown will continue for the next 100 years. Interest rates were stupid low in 2020.

The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 69 months, by far the longest in history.

@TaxFoundation More interesting would be a chart showing the effective tax rate by state for a family earning each state’s respective median income.

5 states with the highest top marginal individual income tax rates: 1. California (13.3%) 2. Hawaii (11%) 3. New York (10.9%) 4. New Jersey (10.75%) 5. District of Columbia (10.75%)

@KobeissiLetter With core inflation at 3.2% and trending higher the 10-year Treasury note should be well over 5%. The current rate is the opposite of a collapse. Treasury rates are irrationally low.

The bond market is collapsing again. The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the same exact level that has led to multiple market interventions by President Trump. Simply put, the US economy cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield rising substantially above current levels. As we saw in April 2025 and March 2026, President Trump is highly attentive to the 4.50% level on the 10Y Note Yield, which we previously labeled as our "policy pivot" point. At the current pace, we could see 4.50%+ within a matter of days. Meanwhile, US oil prices are above $108/barrel, gas prices are up another +5% today, and 30Y mortgage rates are at 6.50%+. The bond market will soon become the center of attention. Stay ahead of the trend.

@chamath You can’t seriously believe your own post. The only thing that the text of the proposed measure requires of non-billionaires is that they state that they aren’t billionaires. The FAFSA is the draconian measure you describe but it is only for the parents of college students.

As you go to work today and settle into the week, please study the form below. You will soon need to fill this out EVERY year and tell the government what you own and then allow them to tell you how much its worth. That is the framework that is enabled by the Trojan Horse "Billionaire Tax" that is trying to get passed. Give them credit: they cleverly use Billionaires as the hook, but build in the language and the framework that will allow the Legislature to simply extend the tax to everyone and make it yearly. And this is where the form below comes in... In this case, ask yourself, will it be you or the Billionaires that will be able to fill this out properly and avoid penalties. As much as Billionaires can be pushed to do more for society, we all know that they have the infrastructure to manage these kinds of disclosures...middle class Californians do not and they will be the ones that get penalized in the end.

@KingX_Edgy @KobeissiLetter Warsh is looks eager to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet. That will likely raise intermediate to long term rates. I bet he pushes for a nominal reduction in the Fed funds rate, but isn’t successful until inflation prints below 3% for at least 6 months.

@KobeissiLetter 55% chance Powell is gone by May 30. The market was already pricing a frozen Fed. Now it has to price a new one. Warsh is more hawkish than Powell. If he takes the chair with oil still elevated and PPI at 4% the rate cut narrative dies completely.

BREAKING: The odds of Fed Chair Powell no longer serving on the Fed board by May 30th surge to 55% after the DOJ drops its criminal probe. Kevin Warsh is set to become the next Fed Chair.

@theficouple No. Set for life requires at least $10 million.

Net-worth breakdown in 2026: $750k: Comfortable $1.2 million: Rich $1.8 million: Semi-wealthy $2.5 million: Set for life ..Do you agree?

@WallStreetMav In a free market 30 year mortgage rates should be at least 7%. Get rid of Fannie and Freddie and have the Fed sell every last MBS off its balance sheet.

There goes my dream of refinancing my mortgage at 2%.

@karenmotherof2 No one with a net worth of less than $5 million should be buying a house anywhere in San Diego. It’s crazy to have more than 20% of your assets tied up in your principal residence. For a single family home in La Jolla you should have a net worth of no less than $20 million.

San Diego is beautiful, especially La Jolla, but I am confused on how anyone can afford to live here, especially in La Jolla

@WallStreetMav Nonsense. The tax encourages the wealthy to make NYC their primary residence. Ideally, NYC full-time residents should get the benefit of a large homestead exemption on their primary residence. That might not increase revenues but would level the playing field.

Mayor Mamdani of NYC and Gov Hochul of New York want to increase taxes on high end residential apartments. The taxes will be so high that new construction and development will come to a halt, crushing jobs. "There are 300,000 people in New York who are dependent on construction jobs. That's mechanics. That's electricians. That's plumbers. What do you think happens when people stop buying apartments in New York?" " Construction jobs dry up because people stop investing in the city." "And I think the most challenging part about this environment that we're seeing also play out in places like California is this is not—this is just the beginning. This is not the end. You're seeing plenty of Democratic socialists of America. They want to increase corporate income tax. They want to increase personal income tax. They want to increase property taxes up to 10 percent. Every single New Yorker will feel that."

@Geiger_Capital That is very myopic. Show the effective rate of all taxes - income, payroll, property (including via rent) and sales taxes.

One of the great political moves by the left in recent years has been convincing a large portion of America that "the rich" don’t pay taxes and it’s all poor people, when the exact opposite is true. The Top 1% pay 46% of all income taxes. The Top 10% pay 76% of all income taxes.

@NYCMayor Excellent policy. Increase the rate 10X for foreign nationals who don’t reside in the US. Just don’t start increasing taxes on NYC residents regardless of wealth. NYC should welcome wealthy residents who pay income taxes.

Happy Tax Day, New York. We’re taxing the rich.