HunabKu

@nerdalert @farzyness Nerds automatically gravitate to the most complex machine ever made

@farzyness I went down that rabbit hole a couple months ago, it is absolutely insane to me that this is a real technology.

I would like to personally thank Elon Musk and Tesla for sending me on my next rabbit hole for the next 2 weeks: EUV lithography.

@CernBasher They are just being pragmatic

The Norwegians must be, collectively, the smartest people on the planet.

@GeneInvesting I bet it gets weirder and faster

@GerberKawasaki I don’t think so, everything has a price and there’s very limited value add vs not having to pay insurance, parking, fines of all sorts, vehicle registration, legal liability from driving. Who the hell wants all that if we can avoid it?

Everyone is going to be real sad to figure out that humans want to their own vehicles...

@garyblack00 @EmmetPeppers The issue is that Tesla has manufacturing scaling supremacy in AI as well as physical products. There is no other company on the planet with a combination of the two which gives it a unique pricing advantage, that is no other competitor can optimize top to bottom.

Wrong. $TSLA bulls cited manufacturing scalability in arguing TSLA would deliver 20M EVs/ year by 2030. It didn’t happen — 2026 will be the third year in a row of declining delivs because production scale does not translate to demand without marketing investment. TSLA bulls consistently ignore this.

Difference between my $TSLA PT of $325 and others at $1,000/$2,000 or more: IMO, there will be many unsupervised autonomous platforms in five years - not just Tesla. TSLA bulls are making the same mistake they made in 2020-2021 in thinking only TSLA could build high quality long-range EVs for under $30K. I’ve long argued that unsupervised autonomy will be table stakes for all auto manufacturers - or they will exit the business. Do you really think state, federal, and international regulators are going to favor TSLA over everyone else in allowing autonomous ride-hailing? Zero chance. Like EVs, unsupervised autonomous ride hailing will be a very competitive marketplace and four factors — highest efficacy, lowest cost, shortest wait time, and best marketing — will determine who wins.

@TeslaBoomerMama @AlpacaAurelius Could be 3-4 years delay complexity is much higher vs. digital work

@AlpacaAurelius The blue collar jobs will go away with the humanoid bots, just delayed by a couple of years

anthropic just put out a new labor market report they believe that up to 75% of what computer programmers, customer service, data entry, sales reps and lawyers do will be completely automated by AI whereas the least likely jobs to be automated are construction workers, cooks, motorcycle mechanics, lifeguards, bartenders, dishwashers... seems like AI is going to completely flip the labor market, eating a lot of the high paying "white collar jobs" while not touching the blue collar jobs.

@HolySmokas No SaaS for me thanks, add TSLA and LMND and it’s going to be much better

$100,000 $AMD $198 $100,000 $AMZN $208 $100,000 $META $639 $100,000 $ELF $90 $100,000 $CAKE $64 $100,000 $NKE $61 $100,000 $CRM $194 $100,000 $SOFI $17 $100,000 $CELH $52 $100,000 $ADBE $261 Thats what I would do if I had to start a new portfolio and buy with $1mil now. Like it?

@nerdalert @bradsferguson It’s real but disruption and losers are real too what if you own 20 or more stocks and you don’t know which ones will get disrupted? You might sell a bit of everything to lower risk?

The AI boom is real. Market is being waaaaay too skeptical right now.

@leRaffl Do it for the local people, not for international English speakers then it has a ton more value IMO

I'm thinking of filming my literal first FSD experiences uncut. Would that be interesting, or is there enough footage out there already?

@yunta_tsai Well deserved

🏆

@elonmusk Stop to smell the roses every once in a while

Whoever said “money can’t buy happiness” really knew what they were talking about 😔

@alc2022 1M is the R&D line

The $TSLA thesis is really simple now. They scale Optimus 3 production to 1M per year and $TSLA becomes a $20T company.

@alex_avoigt Can confirm 🙂

FSD works in all weather conditions.

@farzyness @wholemars Insurance won’t exist by definition when AGI/ASI take over (prices of goods and services trend to zero) but in the meantime they might scale quite quickly. In a normal world it’s an obvious investment. But inside the event horizon where we are I think it’s a trade.

@wholemars Lemonade has a $7B market cap in a multi-trillion $ per year market in insurance. They are the only ones that are AI-foundational vs an extremely old legacy industry. It blows my mind that you can see it in Tesla but you can't see it in Lemonade.

Not buying the Lemonade hype. Sorry Lemonade fans. Love their new "autonomous insurance", but the reality is you don't buy an insurance policy on a Robotaxi ride. That's the future. Stock seems to be trading on Tesla hype rn

@leRaffl Done and dusted

Should we call Denmark "done with their transition" now?

@leRaffl Anecdotal evidence from my two weeks there is there’s a lot of BYDs going around lots of Dolphins and Song, also significant numbers of Teslas (less than BYD) in the back yard of VW Mexico. I have a feeling that lack of reporting could be due to 🇺🇸 politics.

Anyone have monthly BYD sales data for Mexico? I need to try Mexico again, but BYD doesn't report to the authorities, so I'd need to add them in manually to get an approximation -.-

@leRaffl Yes but 🇺🇸 will have AI companies to tax to provide universal income for their citizens after AI leaves us all jobless (if they don’t break apart their country first) while Europe has no bleeding edge AI companies to tax. Is this the safe and free future we want?

Seeing all the videos of police and ICE makes me real glad I live in Europe. We may have too many regulations, but at least I'm safe and free over here. If I just imagine random police or ICE agents doing to me what I see on some of these videos... That's neither free nor safe

@leRaffl I would say even if it’s incomplete you could have a continent wide, and world wide transition graphs. Ideally it’s interactive and you can zoom into country specifics

After checking with a few sources (including the one in the image) I will probably work on including South Korea into my portfolio.

@leRaffl Congratulations! Does it have a front bumper camera?

Damn, if I wanna get my Model 3 tomorrow I gotta do so many things in one day! Get stuff out of my current Model 3 Go to SeC to get the papers Go and try to get a hold of my insurance dude to get insurance Go get it registered Drive 2h to Innsbruck Trade in my Model 3 Take the actual delivery finally! Drive 2h back home .... And stop on the way to shop for Silvester dinner somehow 😂 I'm gonna be fucking busy tomorrow! 🥲

@Stockfins @alc2022 Mostly correct except for the conclusion and TAM. A car that drives itself is worth at least 5x vs one that doesn’t and price to produce is the same or as in TSLA case much less with unboxed. There is no competition in FSD. Please short it! 😇

I agree with all of them except for $TSLA. Current Price: $465 | Target: $10,000 | Implied Return: 2,050% An inverse DCF reveals that a $10k price target isn't a "bull case"—it’s a statistical anomaly that assumes $TSLA captures 100% of global auto, energy storage, and robotics margins with zero competitive response -> complete bullshit • Implied Net Income: At a generous 30x P/E → $1.16 Trillion annual profit required. • The Math: Current Net Income (~$8B) → $1.16T ➔ 14,400% growth in earnings needed. To justify $10k, you aren't modeling a car company or even a software company; you’re modeling a sovereign-level monopoly on all global labor (Optimus) and transport (Robotaxi). The Equity Risk Premium required to hold this through the inevitable "trough of disillusionment" is mathematically unjustifiable. I’m long innovation, but I’m short on delusions of $35T valuations.

I'm betting my entire net worth on these 6 predictions: 1. $TSLA will go to $10K /share when they fully unlock robotaxis. 2. $HIMS will be a $400B company in 5 years. 3. $PLTR will be $1T company in less than 3 years. 4. $DUOL will hit 1B DAUs in 5 years. 5. $AMD will become a $5T company in 5 years. 6. $SPOT will become a $1T company in 5 years.