Buddy retweetledi
⚡️This is one of the most extreme, structurally anomalous readings Bitcoin has ever printed.
It reinforces exactly what we’ve been saying about forced flow + microstructure break.
Let’s dissect it properly.
1. The Chart Is Legit – and It Confirms the Distortion
The three core claims are:
A. Lowest 1D MACD reading ever
This checks out.
To get a new all-time low MACD on the daily, despite only a −33% drawdown, means the velocity and smoothness of the selling is far more extreme than the magnitude of the drawdown.
That never happens in organic markets.
This is exactly what forced institutional, algorithmic, or risk-mandated selling looks like:
•consistent pressure
•no reflexive bounces
•no momentum resets
•no buyer-led intervention
Healthy markets don’t do this. Broken execution does.
B. RSI 21 on 1D - only 4 times in 5 years
Also correct.
When you hit RSI 21 during:
•a broad risk-off collapse (2020, 2021)
•cascading liquidations (FTX 2022)
•macro shocks
…you expect massive multi-day or multi-week reversals afterward.
Yet today, that RSI is printing in a vacuum - with no macro shock, no credit event, no leverage blowout, no ETF redemptions of size.
This is compression, not trend destruction.
C. Only -33% from ATH despite these extreme readings
This is the most important part.
In every prior moment where MACD/RSI were this extreme:
•Price was down 50–70%.
•Funding was deeply negative.
•Positioning was wiped clean.
•Derivative markets were collapsing.
But now?
•Price is down just 33%.
•ETFs (except for one day) still show net positive January - now.
•Permanent holder accumulation is at historical peak.
•Solana ETFs printing green every day.
•Microstructure is broken, not sentiment.
That is the tell.
**This is not a natural market.
This is not a real seller.
This is one or more forced entities closing risk in a broken market.**
2. The Chart Literally Shows Structural Divergence
Look at the pattern:
•MACD at all-time low
•RSI at capitulation-level
•Price still structurally in an uptrend
•Higher highs + higher lows still intact
This is the definition of:
Microstructure catastrophe + macro strength.
If macro or cycle structure were breaking, you would NOT get:
•186,000 BTC absorbed by permanent holders in 6 weeks
•Solana ETF 18-for-18 green
•ETH holding stronger than BTC
•Forced flow during the same 9:30 AM slot for 2 weeks
This is a bottleneck, not a cycle reversal.
3. The Seller Hypothesis Fits the Chart PERFECTLY
This chart is exactly what you’d see if:
•A distressed fund
•A broken market maker
•A forced unwind
•A liquidation mandate
•A risk-reduction algorithm
…is dumping on schedule, irrespective of price.
Healthy markets make:
•rounded bottoms,
•wick-driven reversals,
•volume spikes at inflection points,
•and sentiment-coherent reactions.
This market is making:
•forced candles
•identical timed flow
•thin liquidity breaks
•RSI/MACD extremes without macro justification
•divergence where you normally get confluence
This is clinical, mechanical execution - not macro.
4. What This Actually Means
A. This is NOT a 2021-style trend break
2021 break was:
•funding stress
•cascading longs
•spot selling
•macro tightening
•exhaustion of buyer demand
This is none of that.
This is:
•spot bid strong
•long-term holders buying
•ETFs still accumulating
•liquidity thin only on one venue
•macro neutral to bullish
•seller highly constrained and systematic
This is not May 2021.
This is much closer to March 2020 - a forced actor swinging a wrecking ball through fragile books.
B. This confirms the “October 10 microstructure fracture”
The indicators align with the exact thesis we just posted:
A market maker or deep liquidity provider failed on October 10 - leaving a hole in the order book.
This current selling pattern is that same entity (or someone tied to them) unwinding risk.
This explains:
•timing
•rhythm
•pressure
•lack of reflexivity
•bizzarre lack of bid absorption
•BTC-specific stress
•“why alts aren’t breaking”
•“why ETH isn’t collapsing”
•“why Solana has massive inflows”
•“why macro isn’t involved”
•“why forced RSI/MACD divergence exists”
It fits too well.
This is not random.
5. Final Answer
Yes, the chart is real.
Yes, it is unprecedented.
No, it is not bearish long-term
No, the cycle is not broken.
Yes, it confirms a forced seller or broken execution system.
Yes, this is the last echo of the October 10 fracture.
Yes, the unwind will end.
And when it ends, the rebound will be violent.
Sykodelic 🔪@Sykodelic_
This is insane. Bitcoin has just set its lowest EVER MACD reading on the 1D. It has also hit a 21 on the 1D RSI which has only happened 4x in the last 5 years - I've highlighted them. It has done this, whilst only retracing 33% from ATH. The 50% drop in May 2021 didn't even go as low as this. That is insane pressure over such a short amount of time. If there was doubt about some massive entity was selling for whatever reason, the metrics confirm it. I've never seen anything like it. What is even crazier is that it has done all of this whilst still maintaining a HTF uptrend. This is an unprecedented selling level event that we have never ever seen before. None of this has change my overall thesis for the market, but this will take a bit of time to figure itself out. Probably something like May 2021.
English
