Zhadyger Abdrakhman

Erdogan is neither a junior partner of Russia nor genuinely leaning toward the EU. His core strategy is to restore influence on a scale comparable to the Ottoman era. The rest is political maneuvering. Domestically, this has enabled him to consolidate power and avoid transferring it to the opposition — evident in the arrests of opposition leaders. Given that the Ottoman era ended long ago, this looks less like strategy and more like straightforward power usurpation.

Erdogan is pivotng toward Europe to avoid being sidelined alongside Russia. He has realised that remaining a junior partner to an increasingly isolated Moscow is a strategic dead end." Erdogan’s insistence that Türkiye is "no longer the old Türkiye" is a threat disguised as an invitation. By positioning himself as a candidate for a "leading pole" in a new global system, he is telling the EU that if they don't accept him on his terms, he will take his "constructive stance" elsewhere. But his sudden urgency to revive the accession bid reveals the bluff: for all his talk of multipolarity, Erdogan is leaning toward Europe because he realises that being a junior partner to an increasingly isolated Russia is a dead end. Ultimately, this is the same old Erdogan: a merchant of influence trying to sell a tarnished brand of democracy to a continent that knows the price of admission is more than just strategic geography. Turkish President Erdogan on the EU: 💬 "Strategic blindness toward Türkiye unfortunately still clearly exists in many institutions of the Union. My esteemed citizens, at this point, I must state a fact frankly. Just as yesterday, the issue today is not where Ankara stands. The question is where Brussels wants to be in the world of the future. It's about where you see yourself. It should now be understood that a European Union without Türkiye as a full member will not be a global actor and center of attraction. We are not a country whose existence will be remembered only when needed, whose door will be knocked on when necessary, and which will be pushed aside in other times. We never will be. The European Union should appreciate Türkiye's constructive approach very much. We shouldn't misuse it. They should refrain from actions and statements that would make this difficult. Let it not be forgotten that neither is Türkiye the same Turkey it once was, nor is the world as confined to the sphere of influence of Western states as it once was. A new world is being built where regional collaborations are gaining importance, new actors are emerging, and the global system is rapidly evolving towards multipolarity, and Turkey is among the strongest candidates to become one of the leading poles of this new system. Look, I’ll be frank. Today, Europe's need for Türkiye is greater than Türkiye's need for Europe. This need will increase even more tomorrow. Europe is at a crossroads. They will either see Türkiye’s growing power and global influence as an opportunity for the union to emerge from its current predicament, or they will allow exclusionary rhetoric to darken Europe's future. Our hope is that decision-makers in Europe will finally abandon their political and historical prejudices and focus on developing sincere, genuine, and fair relations with Türkiye. The winner of such a relationship would be the European continent, of which Türkiye is an integral part."

Iran didn’t ratify UNCLOS and relies on the 1958 “innocent passage” regime. But even under that framework, passage through international straits cannot be suspended. So legally, the outcome doesn’t change.

The Iran crisis is a pretext, not the cause. Trump’s NATO skepticism is not new. However, Iran has no Budapest-style assurances—no framework for collective obligation. Expectations of alignment are therefore conditional.

Europe’s hesitation is calculation. Direct involvement in Iran while the Ukraine war sits at its doorstep creates fundamentally different costs, risks, and escalation ladders. This is where alliance positioning meets national interest. This is what a Conditional Power Order looks like.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned European leaders that Trump is disappointed with their reluctance to assist with the war in Iran. “European leaders have gotten the message.” “There has been some disappointment from the US side when it comes to the European reaction” to the US war against Iran. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

If Taiwan engages globally, China’s leverage weakens. If it is constrained, dependency deepens. That is the real contest.

The AI race is not only digital — it is also physical. Gallium, cobalt, graphite, tungsten — the real foundations of AI power. China controls the processing. The U.S. controls the chips. AI leadership built on external dependency is structurally fragile. The real battlefield is hidden in supply chains. This is Criticalmetria. More: independentgeostrategy.substack.com/p/the-gold-fac…

X communities are shutting down — a small product decision, but an interesting signal. As the platform evolves under Elon Musk, the question becomes larger: what happens when digital spaces — and eventually states — are redefined by those who control infrastructure? In his vision, countries may fade. In reality, power doesn’t disappear — it concentrates. More info : The Geopolitics Behind Musk’s Technological Paradise independentgeostrategy.substack.com/p/the-geopolit…

The war in Ukraine is not just another dispute about borders. Territorial disputes exist around the world—and in many cases international law struggles to resolve them—but the Ukraine case stands apart for structural and legal reasons. Find out more in my work: independentgeostrategy.substack.com/p/why-the-war-…

BREAKING: President Trump says he'll consider pulling U.S. troops out of Italy and Spain after hinting he may do so with Germany. "Why shouldn't I? Italy has not been of any help to us and Spain has been horrible." "When we needed them, they were not there." "We didn't need any help with Iran... I didn't need their help, but I said, yeah, we'd love to have your help because I wanted to see if they'd do it. And in all cases, they said we don't want to get involved."

@vtchakarova In realpolitik, ends justify the means—the real question is whether those ends are pursued at any cost.

By realpolitik. Just expanded the beautiful quote by this fine gentleman Mike Tyson.

However, EVs are a structural game changer—compressing oil demand growth today and pulling forward its eventual decline. Technology is not in deadlock, more affordable solutions in renewables will continue to emerge. We are witnessing the gradual erosion of oil’s dominance, echoing the decline of coal.

Renewables in the energy mix are a great way of diversification but only to a certain scale given the current technological innovation wave & grid/storage capacities. After that threshold, they turn from a leverage to a liability for energy security. Energy mix must have it all!

@Amena__Bakr What if Iran adapts under pressure, as North Korea did? Severe sanctions and hunger did not force Pyongyang to step back. Pressure can harden regime survival logic rather than produce concession.

And what will months of this situation do to the global economy?

@vtchakarova We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the oil era. The Iran crisis only accelerates this pattern.

First slowly, then suddenly. That's the nasty thing about systemic risks and their global multiplicative cascades. And the most tragic part is that there's zero awareness or perception of the coming global systemic crisis among political decision makers. Zero. Nada.

@shanaka86 Once an industrial robotics exporter starts importing humanoid robotics, it signals a shift. However, this may be more PR by Japan Airlines than a move toward real geoeconomic vulnerability.

JUST IN: Japan just placed the first order for the post-human economy. Not a policy paper. Not a committee report. An actual deployment of Chinese-made humanoid robots to handle baggage at the busiest airport in the world's third-largest economy, starting next month. On April 27, Japan Airlines and GMO AI and Robotics announced that Unitree G1 humanoid robots will begin a demonstration trial on the tarmac at Tokyo's Haneda Airport in May 2026. The robots stand 132 centimeters tall, weigh 35 kilograms, cost $13,500, and were manufactured in Hangzhou, China. They will be tested pushing cargo containers onto conveyor belts, moving luggage, and coordinating with human handlers. Two units go first. GMO Internet Group has formally designated 2026 as the "First Year of Humanoids." The trial runs through 2028 with plans for permanent integration if successful. Everyone is covering this as a technology story. It is a dependency story. And the dependency runs in the opposite direction from every assumption the market holds about the US-China technology war. Japan invented industrial robotics. Fanuc, Yaskawa, Kawasaki. For four decades, Japanese factories exported automation to the world. Now Japan is importing humanoid labor from China because its domestic humanoid industry has not scaled fast enough to meet the demographic emergency. The Unitree G1 was designed in Hangzhou, trained using Nvidia Isaac Simulator, and costs less than five months of a Japanese ground handler's annual salary. The country that built the global robotics industry is now a customer of China's. The numbers are structural. Japan recorded 42.7 million inbound tourists in 2025 and 7 million in the first two months of 2026. Haneda processes over 60 million passengers annually. Ground handling staff shortages have hit 20%. Japan may need 6.5 million foreign workers by 2040, but political pressure to limit immigration is mounting. The country is caught between a demographic wall and a political wall, and the only passage between them is a 132-centimeter robot from Hangzhou. Mo Gawdat said labor arbitrage disappears when you can hire a robot for less than a human. Japan just converted that thesis into a procurement decision. A Unitree G1 costs $13,500. A Haneda ground handler earns $35,000 to $45,000 per year before benefits. The robot runs approximately two hours per charge, but it does not age, emigrate, or quit. Japan is not adopting humanoids because they are better. It is adopting them because it has run out of humans. Here is the dependency inversion nobody is pricing. In March 2026, the US Senate introduced a bipartisan bill banning Chinese-made robots from government use. Japan, America's most critical Pacific ally, is importing those same robots for airport infrastructure. The chips are Nvidia. The bodies are built in Hangzhou. This is not hypothetical. In April 2025, Beijing restricted rare earth magnet exports and Musk confirmed the restrictions delayed Tesla Optimus production. If Beijing applies the same lever to humanoid exports, Japan's demographic solution becomes a supply-chain crisis overnight. The first humanoid robot will push its first cargo container at Haneda in May. It costs less than a used Toyota. It was made by a country America is trying to contain. And it will do a job no Japanese citizen is willing to do anymore. That is not a technology trial. That is the future of labor arriving at gate 23.

@annmarie If we call things black as black and white as white, this is probably true rather than incorrect.

FT: Britain’s ambassador to Washington has said that America’s only “special relationship” is “probably Israel”, not the UK, in leaked remarks.

@InForTheFun_ What is the real goal of the Iran crisis? What is the real goal of the Ukrainian war—when an unconditional ceasefire could be declared and current diplomacy could continue without hostilities? “The ends justify the means.” So what ends justify these means?

There is a large-scale attack on refineries around the world-at least 15 so far. Aside from your opinion of Russia, 1) that's unprecedented ecological catastrophe for the Black Sea coast and 2) that would raise oil even more. Petrol, jet fuel, diesel, food...Why? What's the goal?

China is exporting fuel despite high oil prices — a quiet confidence signal during the Hormuz crisis.

Conditional—individual producers replace collective control. Free market—that’s positive for consumers.

@ianbremmer It is good when cartels weaken. Free market. It also aligns with the Conditional Power Order.

united arab emirates leaves opec. abu dhabi asserting itself now that dubai safe haven status is in doubt.