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1.9K posts
@syc22 Roupp coming out for the 8th inning yesterday really looms large now. 10-0 the past 2 days if he didn’t
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Stole the idea from @KSplitAnalytics and decided to take a look at how my results have trended over time with some cumulative charts. The first plot is all of my tracked o/u with a >5% edge together and the next 2 separate overs and unders.
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
Updated strikeout model results for tracked o/u lines on FanDuel and DraftKings with a greater than 5% edge. Still realizing about 50% of expected profit in the month of April which I believe is a good and realistic amount.
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@syc22 Yeah, I saw. FanDuel came out with -102 and Fanatics has +110 and both those options are still good. If you’re still just on DK, I’d expect them to repost with a similar number to FanDuel
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I’ve said this a few times but to reiterate, betting overs and unders on just FanDuel and DraftKings isn’t the only intended use of my projections but it’s how I’m “evaluating” my model’s accuracy. I am betting/tracking every single 5% edge I see on the o/u lines on these books
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Updated strikeout model results for tracked o/u lines on FanDuel and DraftKings with a greater than 5% edge. Still realizing about 50% of expected profit in the month of April which I believe is a good and realistic amount.
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April 26 Strikeout Model Projections
Wasn't able to get to about half the slate for tomorrow and didn't want to rush and put out some bad numbers last minute.
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@gfrankbets Should be apparent by now but the best window of opportunity for value is right when the books post lines, so the idea is to get numbers out very early that are a very good but not perfect approximation and just attack the opening lines that are sometimes way off
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@IIPatll @gfrankbets never want to interrupt a good model chat, but BANG on mlodz under! 💥
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@gfrankbets The last part is that I only recommend and track placing bets with >5% edges to account for 2 things. 1 being that I do a bit of rounding in my process and the 2nd being that unexpected lineups can shift the outcomes a bit so I don’t want to end up on small edge bets that go bad
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@syc22 He’s a second half guy and that half was horrible by both teams. Hopefully some more offense in the second half🙏🏻
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@budbongsandbets you think spurs lines are factoring in wemby playing or not?
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@budbongsandbets do you feel like the HT lays hit better or worse than the pregame ones?
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Mega is built for tomorrow. Banking on 4 good games🙏🏻
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Guess I can’t be mad we didn’t make it to the last game
Back tomorrow with another mega
Underdog NBA@UnderdogNBA
Status alert: Donte DiVincenzo (leg) headed to locker room Saturday.
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@syc22 Tough. I try to write “over” and “under” somewhere in the post so it’s clearer cuz “o” vs “u” can be misread. The way I consistently type the bets helps me with my manual tracking later
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8 o/u lines that my model signaled for today. Odds then vs now:
Crochet u7.5: +120 ➡️ -114
Liberatore u4.5: -108 ➡️ -152
Perez u5.5: +110 ➡️ 4.5 line
Ray u5.5: +124 ➡️ +118
Irvin o4.5: +134 ➡️ +111
Keller u4.5: +118 ➡️ -112
Burrows u5.5: +110 ➡️ -144
Elder u4.5: +100 ➡️ -118
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️@IIPatll
April 25 Strikeout Model Projections
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Easily the best day of the season so far in terms of securing value. Anything can happen once the games start but what I can control is getting a very good price and I’m gonna do that almost every time
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