ISABELNET

@KobeissiLetter That's a good reminder that big US companies are really global businesses, but a lot of that exposure is concentrated in a handful of mega-caps! 😉

US corporations have never had more foreign exposure: The proportion of S&P 500 revenue generated abroad is up to a record ~42%. This surpasses the previous peak of ~40% in 2015 and ~39% posted during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. This comes despite the unprecedented surge in domestic AI investment, which was expected to make corporate revenue more concentrated in the US. Technology companies are behind most of the surge, with foreign markets now accounting for over 50% of the sector's revenue. Furthermore, the communication services sector generates ~47% of its revenue abroad, up from less than 40% before the 2020 pandemic. The global economy is more connected than ever.

🇺🇸 S&P 500 At last week Friday's close, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral, and the S&P 500 followed through on Monday, closing down just 0.19%. The model gauges if the market is leaning bullish, bearish or neutral. Subscribe on 👉 isabelnet.com

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🇺🇸 Valuations At 16 times forward earnings, against 20 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is not exactly cheap, but it looks more appealing on a relative basis 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=valuation @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #stocks #equity #stockmarket

📌 Equity Consolidated equity positioning sits at the 53rd percentile, a modest overweight with limited crowding and room for further upside 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=equity h/t @DeutscheBank $spx #spx #sp500 #equity #stocks

📌 Equities Since Trump's inauguration, US equities have lagged their global peers, with Europe ahead by 12%, Japan by 17%, and emerging markets by 27% 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ h/t @Gavekal $spx #spx #stocks #equity #MSCI

📌 Insiders Buying and selling have fallen into balance, pulling the Insider Transactions Ratio back to neutral as corporate insiders look reluctant to place big bets on where the market goes next 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ #insider $ndx $spx #spx #stocks #equity

📌 Flows Tech funds have attracted heavy inflows over the past 12 months, fueled by AI enthusiasm, chip strength and improving earnings expectations. Will the run continue? 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @DeutscheBank #ETF #funds #tech #equity #stocks

📌 Gold Gold struggles as energy‑driven inflation keeps Fed rate‑hike risks alive, lifting the dollar and real yields and capping near‑term gains for bullion 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=gold $gold #gold $gld #gld $GDX #GDX

📌Drawdowns Global tech and the usual tech‑sensitive indices are trading well below their 52‑week highs. This is the kind of year that follows a crowded AI trade, when investors finally see the bill for all that optimism 👉isabelnet.com/blog/ @DeutscheBank #tech $qqq #Kospi

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Goldman Sachs still sees steady earnings growth pushing the S&P 500 up 17% to 8,000 in 2026, even if the ride stays bumpy 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity

🇺🇸 Earnings Earnings growth for MCG and Tech is expected to keep accelerating from already lofty levels, while profits for the rest of the S&P 500 are projected to rise 14.3%, contributing 9.1 percentage points to overall growth 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ h/t @dailychartbook

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Last week, semiconductors and momentum names came under pressure, and with the S&P 500 showing a 77.09 overbought reading, the upside looks limited over the next few weeks 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @LanceRoberts $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity

📌Subscriber Access The #stockmarket bull and bear indicator, the short- & long-term forecasts, the #valuation & ERP charts have been updated on 👉isabelnet.com #valuations #markets #investing #equity #sp500 #nasdaq #dow #dowjones $djia $spx #spx $spy #stocks

🇺🇸 S&P 500 At the close two Wednesdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish, and the S&P 500 followed through on Thursday, closing up 0.81%. The model gauges if the market is leaning bullish, bearish or neutral. Subscribe on 👉 isabelnet.com

📌 Read the Daily Blog on the Website 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/

📌 Flows Despite the selloff, semiconductors have seen heavy inflows over the past few weeks. That looks more like dip buying than broad risk aversion. Will it last? 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @DeutscheBank #tech $ndx $qqq $spx #spx #equity #stocks

🇺🇸 Valuations Risk appetite is still intact. The Russell 2000 trades at 26 times forward earnings, versus 25 for the Nasdaq 100 and 20 for the S&P 500. It is hardly cheap, but demand for equities is still alive 👉isabelnet.com/?s=valuation @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx $rut $qqq #stocks

🇺🇸Margin Debt Margin debt is climbing into the danger zone that makes investors uneasy, edging deeper into levels last seen at major market tops. The bulls still run the show, but even a modest pullback could turn ugly fast 👉isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @Callum_Thomas $spx #spx

📌 Global EPS With global stocks priced for perfection and ACWI earnings expectations stretched, it looks prudent to take some risk off the table 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ h/t @dailychartbook @TS_Lombard #EPS #stocks