Imagi

@davey_juice Does $intr gives details about renegotiation numbers?

Did some research on $intr and even though I'm bullish, I simply can't see why I would put money in intr when $nu exists Better metrics across the board and just as much if not more future growth oppty

@chitchatstocks @CCM_Brett @CCM_Ryan $DLocal and $NU results ??

What should we talk about on today's Investing Power Hour? Both @CCM_Brett and @CCM_Ryan are reading the SpaceX S-1 in preparation for an extended segment discussing the blockbuster IPO Come join us at 5pm EST on the Chit Chat Stocks YouTube channel

@MozaNandan @CapexAndChill Does not $NU has less NPL’s too compared to $MELI? So may be MELi is giving more risky loans and thus less NIMAL but more npl. If npl grows nimal will decrease too. Am I thinking this right?

@CapexAndChill There’s no problem in risk being high if you are being paid for it appropriately. People got used to 20%+ NIMALs but that’s a) higher than normal and b) not sustainable in the long run. Nubank which runs a best in class lending book has 10% NIMAL vs 17% for MELI

I am getting a lot of messages from folks that are confused about $MELI's strategy still so I will try to explain further why the bad debt that is dragging their earnings is not as scary as what meets the eye. Let me make it crystal clear if you aren't familiar with the mechanics here. That 3.9 ppts margin drop “bad debt” is the cost of upfront accounting. Under IFRS 9 standards, they are required to provision for expected bad debt the exact moment new loans are originated. No actual cash has been lost at that point in time. It is strictly a non-cash estimate of future risk. To be clear this is something to keep in mind. It should be somewhat representative of what is to come but they are also showcasing with their NIMAL it has been very effective so far. The reason the hit looks so massive comes down to a couple of factors. First, the credit portfolio is growing at a rapid clip, which automatically triggers higher day 1 provision expenses. Second, they extended the duration of the loans. Longer terms carry a higher lifetime probability of default, meaning accounting rules force them to provision even more upfront compared to their shorter-term loans. But this isn't a red flag. This is a deliberate strategy. Yes, there is inherent credit risk involved, but MELI is aggressively expanding their credit book downmarket. They are directly targeting the exact consumer demographic that shops on Shopee and other low-end consumers. MELI is playing the disruptor here. They are executing a strategic land grab against their downmarket competition, and it's kind of brilliant. Obviously, these cohorts are riskier with higher historical default probabilities, but the long-term payoff is massive. They are effectively neutralizing any upmarket move from Shopee by capturing and controlling those customers' purchasing power through Pago. Then there is the bottom-line reality that gets ignored. Despite this aggressive expansion, their NIMAL (this stands for Net Interest Margin After Losses) remains extremely robust, tracking above 17%. Even after absorbing these massive, upfront non-cash provisioning hits, the credit business is still highly profitable. They aren't losing money at all. They are making the conscious choice to reinvest that credit profit directly back into the business to acquire market share. It’s exactly that. Reinvesting internally to own the market. One other crucial aspect to understand: the margin drag from these longer-duration loans is largely an accounting hit. Because of IFRS rules, they have to book massive provisions upfront based on conservative lifetime risk models. But the reality? The actual repayment data shows these cohorts are outperforming those models. So, while they take a short-term margin hit on paper to fund these provisions, they are successfully capturing a customer base that is fundamentally less risky than the upfront accounting suggests. You heard that right, part or the drag is that they provisioned are larger amount and some folks paid off their loan faster. So they earner less interest on the loan. They are taking a paper penalty today to lock in high-quality, sticky users for tomorrow. 🍻

@Instant_Replay7 @rebound_capital That’s a good info. Are you from the countries where $MELI operates?

@rebound_capital You aware that $MELI and $SE doesn’t even sell the same products aren’t you?

Mercado Libre's ($MELI) moat is weakening: While MELI looks attractive on first glance (stock down 35% but strong 45% YoY revenue growth), the competitive pressure is intensifying: - Squeezed from both sides in Brazil: In MELI’s largest market (~50% of revenue), Shopee is attacking their value-conscious buyers, while Amazon competes for the convenience-focused urban buyer (the most valuable e-commerce shoppers) - The price war is hurting margins: MELI lowered its shipping fees to take on Shopee, but Shopee products are still cheaper on average, with lower seller fees. Temu’s entry has further increased competition for the value-focused buyers - Logistics arms race: Huge investments by Amazon and MELI in logistics to compete with each other in Brazil. It’s not a winner-take-all market anymore - Fintech is a double-edged sword: the credit/lending business is riskier than core ecommerce. Rising defaults can severely hurt the whole platform The stock reflects this. From its July 2025 all-time high of $2,645, MELI has shed ~35%, now trading near $1,718. Q4 EPS declined 12.5% despite 45% revenue growth. You're still paying ~30x forward earnings for a business under siege. We may be watching the medium-term economics of the industry deteriorate.

@k3ithmccullough @SleepwellCap And it’s not exactly one to one replacement. For one night it does not make sense to do Airbnb. I need to do clean up and then pay for cleaning too. If I am arriving late night I don’t wanna get into risk of doing Airbnb. Taxi vs under is more direct replacement.

@SleepwellCap Less fragmented No Marriot and Hilton in cabs

Why did Uber decimate the taxi industry but Airbnb hasn’t affected the hotel industry as much? In both cases, the supply increased massively in the form of new competition, but somehow hotels have been way more resilient and the large groups are thriving.

@convequity It is interesting but conflict of interests muddy waters for Jensen’s arguments

@Imagi_capital Yes this is something Patel mentioned also. It doesn't mean Chinese AI labs would stay on $NVDA anyway, like what has happened with some AI labs (Anthropic) and hyperscalers ( $AMZN) in the US. Jensen argued NVDA would keep the Chinese labs via winning on innovation.

Jensen Huang vs. Dwarkesh Patel: The Most Important AI Debate of the Year I just finished the 2-hour conversation between Jensen Huang and Dwarkesh Patel, and it crystallized the single biggest tension in AI policy today: Should NVIDIA be allowed to sell its top-tier chips to China? The flashpoint was Anthropic's Mythos — a frontier model that, during safety testing, reportedly uncovered thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across every major OS. In other words: autonomous offensive cyber capability is no longer theoretical. Patel's case for sanctions: If China gets unrestricted access to the NVIDIA stack, they can replicate a Mythos-class model far sooner than American enterprises can remediate the exploits such models expose. The "lead time for defense" right now is effectively negative. A compute moat isn't protectionism — it's a patching window. Huang's case against sanctions: He called the export ban a "loser mindset," and his argument runs deeper than it first appears: 🔹 The Energy Arbitrage. America optimizes for FLOPS-per-watt because the country's grid is constrained. China doesn't have that constraint. If a Huawei Ascend chip is only 50% as capable as an H100, China simply networks twice as many together and powers the cluster with its enormous domestic energy surplus. The math still works. 🔹 DeepSeek Already Proved It. DeepSeek reached frontier-level performance on Huawei silicon at a fraction of Western training costs — through algorithmic ingenuity on "mundane" hardware. The precedent is set. 🔹 The Telemetry Trap. If America forces China onto a parallel Huawei/CANN ecosystem, the U.S. loses all visibility into how Chinese frontier models are being scaled, tuned, and deployed. Jensen is saying "Ghost data centers we can't see are more dangerous than rivals building on our platform". 🔹 Ecosystem Gravity. Whoever sets the standard sets the next 50 years. Jensen wants the world on CUDA — not because it helps NVIDIA, but because it keeps America at the center of AI gravity. My take: Patel wins the short-term defensive argument. Blocking the best chips genuinely does buy time against a Mythos-level threat landing on American infrastructure Monday morning. But Huang may be winning the long game. If the next Mythos is trained on a stack the U.S. can't monitor, in data centers it can't see, will the U.S. have made itself actually safer — or just blind? The uncomfortable truth is that both can be right. The question becomes: which risk is America more willing to live with? Is it better to have your rivals on your platform where you can watch them — or in a parallel universe where you can't?

@buccocapital Awesome movie 🍿 nevertheless

@natlungfy @GrousARK Training your future replacements to get few change $$ today.

Exclusive: DoorDash launched a new app “Tasks” that pays couriers in some US markets if they submit audio and video clips to help improve AI and robotics models. Many of these tasks are completing household chores while capturing footage with a body-worn camera — data that would be helpful for humanoid robots. Instructions: scrub and rinse at least 5 dishes with your hands, hold each clean plate steady in frame for a few seconds before moving to the next one bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@DrewCohenMoney Yes, but the margin profile and organic growth is different too. Valuations has come down a lot as well. Thanks, I would love to hear your thoughts if you get chance to study them.

@Imagi_capital I never specifically researched Adyen but the valuations between the two are pretty different. Adyen is a great business, even Shift4 has praised them

Make sure you follow The Synopsis podcast to get this deep dive on payments company Shift4 tomorrow! $FOUR trades at 16-17x FCF and is growing 20%+

@Gubloinvestor @MinotaurStocks How do you view $IOT against geotab and motive?

@MinotaurStocks $MTVE will give $IOT push due to cash burning element. $IOT is market leader and will continue dominate the space. i will closely monitor $MTVE due to its valuation.

Bad sign for the IPO market, but $MTVE pulling its IPO (for now) is ++ for $IOT / $AIOT. As we predicted, investors are not crazy about underwriting such heavy cash burn to chase a hugely competitive market. Dashcam Maker Motive Delays Marketing of Its IPO — The Information

@DrewCohenMoney @Speedwell_LLC DLocal, Samsara, Rubrik please

What stock should I cover in the next YouTube video and Five Minute Money Newsletter? Or comment others you want to see

@SayNoToTrading Thanks for sharing. How about samsara vs geotab? Geotab, if I rem correctly,is bigger than motive. Also would not it be easier for samsara to gobble smaller customers than motive to move upstream?

Samsara $IOT vs. Motive Technologies $MTVE IPO With a little censoring and cropping, my friend in trucking SaaS has gave me permission to share these texts with you.

@WhaleEverything @NoLimitGains @grok Done

The moment Spiderman tore down the Islamic Republic flag at Iran's embassy in London, and raised the lion and sun flag 💪

@SayNoToTrading What do you think of growth rate slowing down for them? Just law of large numbers or concerned?

Samsara $IOT rocking today, along with most SaaS stocks. Yes, I know it’s software + hardware for Samsara, which made the dip even more illogical. My friend in trucking SaaS just keeps saying how hard it is to compete against them. Samsara throws in for free things which competition is trying to sell as stand-alone. Since I was able to do so by keeping my average at $32.xx (barely!) I now have a little more for 2026.

@nduwaflorent @ttunguz Do you mean to say Samasar won’t go or is not suitable for smaller clients? Can you explain your reasonings with examples?

@ttunguz I think the upside is bigger for Motive in the long run. They have built a strong foundation for the smaller customers. It's not yet reflected in the numbers, but their core market is bigger and eventually if they continue executing well on this, they will win!

Motive, the AI-powered fleet management company formerly known as KeepTruckin, filed their S-1 this week. The company has grown tremendously & in this post, we compare it to Samsara at IPO : tomtunguz.com/motive-s-1/

@shomikghosh21 How do you view Motive or other competitors regards to business strategy, management, financials, product compared to $IOT?

Some of the stalwarts of the “build and execute in house” software names have fallen $NOW & $TEAM traditionally have done smaller M&A and now are flexing their $CRM muscles I don’t view that as a sign of strength in this environment Notably $NET, $CRWD, $IOT, $SHOP, $DDOG are still doing smaller M&A and are valued at some of the highest valuations in the market This is one thing that has caused me to reduce my $NOW position even as it gets cheaper Traditionally one of the highest quality software assets but pursuing this much M&A in non AI native companies seems to point to weakness in the core $IOT out of all of these looks like the cheapest relative valuation compared to growth, competition, and end market demand

@signulll $RKLB