Padda

@Polymarket His father was a toolmaker

JUST IN: UK PM Keir Starmer reportedly plans to set out an “orderly timetable” for his departure. 52% chance he’s out by the end of next month. polymarket.com/event/starmer-…

Kier Starmer has told friends he intends to resign as Prime Minster and will set out a timetable to do so-Daily Mail

@Jesterthegoose @Domahhhh There will be blood?

@Domahhhh what movie is Polymarket now. We need an updated list

On day 2 of the first-round counting, Sánchez was trading at just 1¢ to win on Polymarket Latin American elections are extremely unpredictable!

What is Trumps next move on Iran?

@GollumGekko1 Why would anyone expect poly to reward this anyway lol? You contribute nothing to market efficiency or liquidity by holding split shares on these markets.

Imagine trading prediction markets with a 4% annual return goal Just buy some bonds fuck sake

@Polymarket Fujimori lost the last 2 elections by about 0.3%, so we'll see if Sanchez can keep the curse alive!

JUST IN: Peru’s leftist Roberto Sanchez will face Keiko Fujimori in a June presidential runoff.

@LinkofSunshine The average American is so much richer than this site would make you think

According to John Bolton, Trump's first-term national security advisor: "one of Trump's favorite comparisons was to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, 'This is Taiwan,' then point to the Resolute desk and say, 'This is China.'" — implying that Taiwan was too small to be worth defending or caring about. This is how Trump thinks about the world!

@0xinternetchild I agree, also i think trump would prefer a quick round of strikes right now rather than a likely extended operation like this. The world cup starts early june.

"Will Trump restart project Freedom by May 31st" Price : 38c Fair value imo : ~20c I think this market is very overvalued for one reason. Traders equate restarting Project Freedom with restarting the war. They think it's a good proxy, now that we don't have strike markets anymore, but it really is not. The rules explicitly require that the US announces the restart of "Project Freedom" or any "substantially equivalent" operation. Problem is that Project Freedom was a substantial failure. US destroyers were sent to the strait of Hormuz with the task of escorting civilian ships. It resulted in 2 oil tankers (HMN Namu and CMA CGS) damaged and forced to turn back and not a single oil tanker making it to the other side. Only a few of the +2000 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf agreed to take part in the operation in the first place because they believed that the risk was too high. I imagine that there won't be many volunteers for round 2 It just doesn't make much sense to restart project freedom at that point. If the US want's to restart the war they will probably go with a massive air campaign (most likely) and maybe a limited ground invasion (less likely but possible). I know Trump said he would restart "Project Freedom" if Iran didn't make a deal but he's notorious for saying whatever sounds cool at the moment so i'm not taking it very seriously I think NO on this market is a good bet. Maybe coupled with YES on "Iran closes it's airspace" in case the war restarts.

@atrupar Vance does not have the sauce

Vance wraps up his speech to one of the most tepid rounds of applause I've ever heard 😬

@Polymarket Meanwhile South Africa is still not allowing it 🤦‍♂️

NEW: Uganda grants operating license to Starlink.

@penguin_pmkt @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade i think fv is solidly 60 - 65, i have a small bet now ill buy more if it dips down to the 40s, which i think is likely

@Impij25 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade is that really worth 54c tho

Regardless of how today and tomorrow's meetings between Israel and Lebanon go, Trump is going to truth out a superficial ceasefire extension, and Israel will be forced to go along with it:

@Polymarket What kind of physical?! Is this bullish for the kiss market??

JUST IN: U.S. Secret Service reportedly involved in “very physical” standoff with Chinese police in Beijing.

@Polymarket not surprising since, his base is basically perfectly selected for people who fall for cons

NEW: DOJ warns “Trump Bucks” has no connection to President Trump and is being used by foreign scammers to defraud Americans.

@Kalshi What about the president?

JUST IN: 60% chance Congress is "banned" from trading stocks before 2029

@LinkofSunshine should be atleast 50% pokemon cards 🤦‍♂️

Actually I’ll put it on main but my stock portfolio excluding 401k: QQQ: 41% VTI: 37% TQQQ: 5% GOOGL: 5% Oil (USL): 3% China (KSTR): 1% Cloudflare: 1% NOW: 1% TSM: 1% Mining (MP): .5% GS: .5%

@uncledoomer Sports-books would give you 5 - 1 on this

imagine not betting generational wealth on 99-1 odds