David Cai

$NKTR Most of the rezpeg data in Alopecia Areata that was presented in oral poster at AAD Annual Meeting already known (and still with the caveat that 4 patients excluded in modified ITT assessment), but: - good to see the case study slides showing what meaningful absolute SALT reduction actually looks like, and most intriguingly… - a hint as to what we will see in the coming weeks, in the 16 week extension period for those patients who experienced some hair regrowth— In the blinded treatment extension: • 3 additional patients have already achieved a SALT ≤ 20 in the 16- week treatment extension with 2 patients ongoing treatment • 7 additional patients who achieved SALT ≤ 30 are ongoing in the 16- week treatment extension No plateau for regrowth, and durability of long acting efficacy, all consistent with the rezpeg MoA… .

Can't $SIVE just pull a $LITE and TAM expansion down the ELS stack? I'm getting early stage $LITE flashbacks (Oclaro, NeoPhotonics, Cloud Light)... Here's my thesis/idea: on how Sivers can capture the ~$300-$400 ELS (from $50-100 arrays) and become a $10B+ company. How this plays out: -> Sivers is needs funding. -> Get NRE prepay or PIPE (eg. $AXTI/Northland) -> Say "Hey, $AVGO and $LITE are going to choke your custom AI cluster margins". ----> get $META / $AMZN / $MSFT capital injection for multi-source supply for next ASIC clusters cause they're scared. Esp. with $NVDA funding $4B to securing supply from $LITE and $COHR... then PTSD from the current EML capacity bottleneck. It's easier than people think. -> US spinoff of photonics arm (markets don't like investing in legacy companies). - - - - - > This will likely work in 2026, bc CPO/photonics is hot, now and not like 2024-early 2025. -> Raise enough to automate wafer probers and fund the module NPI. -> Fab-lite test model: develop probe cards and test inhouse, but push capex to OSATs. -> Buy SiPh packaging IP (or just continue JDM with O-Net and $POET) -> Keep their Glasgow InP fab for in-house testing for iteration/raw epitaxial. -> Outsource lithography, etching, etc. stuff to Win Semi + others (don't do capex heavy things yourself) -> Then just $SIVE can just hand tested lasers and packaging IP to $FN And Poof. You have a independent, mass producible, high margin, ELS module as ELSFP becomes standard. Then they can do other stuff like buying DSP designs and start consolidating the tech stack. Instead of cheap $10 laser dies x 6 for a $50-$100 laser array, you have $400 hot swappable modules. Basically their starting point is owning one of the chokepoints moat in photonics on the laser level... Then they can go downstream like what $LITE did with EML and optical transceivers. TLDR: Sivers ( $SIVE ) holds a rare, independent chokepoint in InP lasers at the exact moment the world is transitioning to CPO. There's only a few independent companies in the world that can do this like $SIVE (eg. Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR). But of course they need the funding to achieve TAM expansion and the right vision.

$IDYA

Everyone is arguing over who wins the CPO arms race. $AVGO with Davisson. $NVDA with Spectrum-X. $MRVL with their own play. Meanwhile nobody is talking about the company that supplies the foundries building all of it. Here's the actual setup. Today's data centers run on pluggable transceivers. Optics sit outside the chip, signals crawl through copper traces, DSPs burn 30W per interface just compensating for signal loss. At 100K AI servers, optics alone consume 10-20x the power of a traditional data center. The math stops working. CPO fixes this by integrating optics directly onto the switch ASIC substrate. Signal loss drops from 20dB to 1-2dB. Power consumption falls 3.5x. Reliability jumps Meta ran 15 million device hours on AVGO's Bailly without a single unserviceable failure. This isn't experimental anymore. But the cycle matters. Pluggables still own 95%+ of the market through 2027. CPO doesn't meaningfully inflect until 2028. You don't abandon transceivers you hold both and rotate. The real winner-agnostic play? Silicon photonics is the engine of every CPO solution on the market. Silicon photonics runs on SOI wafers. One company supplies those wafers to virtually every major foundry on earth TSMC, Samsung, GlobalFoundries. Soitec. NVDA wins → Soitec wins. AVGO wins → Soitec wins. Some dark horse startup takes share → Soitec wins. $24B CPO switch TAM by 2030. $15B optics TAM on top of that. $SOITEC