Indie Hedge Fund

My exit from $BE early June after a 200% gain. Was definitely late to enter this one, but hey, I take 200%....

@gurgavin The hype was obvious in hindsight. That said, this too shall pass.

NASDAQ 100 FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES TO 2% 📉📉📉📉📉

Call me paranoid, but the last weeks look like an orchestrated market manipulation (and I don't even own memory stock). First wr have people hyping up memory stocks, getting people do go long, with leverage and options. Then the smallest wobble gets blown out of proportion, leading to drops in market, margin calls and the downward pressure starts. And all that happening right in time for Opex, when all these call options expire with much lower value, or completely worthless. I guess the phrase stand: Thank you for playing in the casino. $SNDK $MU $SKHY

Well. For once crypto is holding up pretty well so far. Let's see how it goes $ETH

Warsh takes the chair at Senate Banking on Wednesday. He's on record saying he'd rather not give forward guidance, so the format is: twenty senators spend three hours trying to get him to give forward guidance.

$ASML earnings today, options marked for an 8% move. up 65% on the year, let's see how it goes....

@krugman87 Wall of worry is the best wall to climb to new heights.

They will do studies on how we had stubbornly high bearish sentiment within a few percent of record highs.

A good day on the green … but imagine a period like 2017–2021, when prices rose by 10–30 per cent every day 🤣🤣

@otigart Get a margin account at IBKR, and then fun will continue 🤑🤑🤑

I have 0 cash to invest now… but this looks just great at this price… sigh … $NBIS

@JacobCanfield Shadow ban gone, $BTC and $ETH .... can't be a conincidence.

I hear the shadow ban is over for crypto folks.

@ozzy_livin We should team up and turn this into a quant trading strategy, instead of selling it 😎

Get the Vanna 👸 Charm 🦥 indicator at ozzylivin.com

@beerzy99 Chart looked interesting, then I checked the x-axis and realized I don't have that much time to get rich 🤣

Great chart from GMO - bargains to be had

@FranVezz @jfsrev Agree here, tried to find these contractions through quant / algo methods and was not yet able to find a consistently predictive signal. So it remains a discretionary interpretation of squiggly lines....

If you’re lost on what to look for, I suggest start here. Contraction——> Expansion In my opinion, some of the best opportunities come from the tightest charts. Risk reward improves, volatility dies down, price gets coiled, like a spring, as @jfsrev would say. When volume dries up during the consolidation, that's even better. It’s easier to manage risk, and you’ll know you’re wrong fast, as @MarkRitchie_II says. It is a timeless market dynamic that’s completely fractal. Any chart, any timeframe. $TENB

@eliz883 Might need a breather, but if Asia opens strong, its totally possible to happen sooner than later.

$BTC If we break out of the box and that trigger is activated, we’ll rise to 70/71

@ShardiB2 Just the beginning, the next run will be glorious as long as you believe in somETHing.

$ETH coming right back up

$IBM down 23%. Worst day since October 19, 1987. Revenue $17.2B against $17.86B. CEO says clients spent the last weeks of June shifting capex into servers, storage and memory to lock supply ahead of price increases, so the big software deals didn’t close. Memory ate the software quarter. We’ve had IBM in the boring bucket for years, the next couple of quarters will be....interesting.

we spent two years arguing about which exact meeting the cuts would start on. Warsh takes the chair and now the street’s got three hikes penciled in and a 3.6 handle on inflation. cuts just quietly left the building. everybody flattened their rate book in a week and nobody’s raising their hand about how that trade went.

$MU is sitting on 22 billion in customer deposits from contracts nobody can legally walk away from, ran an 87% gross margin in the data center last quarter, sold out of HBM into 2027, and the stock’s down 22% off its June high. still waiting on the part where someone tells me what broke.

Nine of the twelve biggest contributors to the S&P this half were chip and memory names. You didn’t own the index this year. You owned a semiconductor fund that let you keep telling people you were diversified.

The S&P did 9.6% in the first half. Apparently that’s the twelfth time since 1990 it’s been up 9%-plus by June, and every prior time the second half was green too. So the historical base rate says relax.

$NFLX off 3% because the Journal says internal reviews flagged engagement slipping. churn’s near record lows, profit’s fine, everyone’s still paying the bill — they’ve just stopped pressing play. the fix on the table is live TV channels. sure.