InvestyMan
1.6K posts
InvestyMan
@InvestyMan
European private investor. Eager to learn, understand and share. Currently in $ZIM $ONDS $OSS $CODA $OUST + call options on $PYPL, $NTNX, $KLAR, $MSTR
Europe Katılım Haziran 2024
187 Takip Edilen319 Takipçiler
🚨 $VELO JUST DROPPED Q4 + FULL-YEAR 2025 EARNINGS AND THE NUMBERS ARE SCREAMING NEXT-LEVEL INFLECTION 🔥
Holy shit bulls - Velo3D is NOT playing around anymore.
Full-year 2025 revenue hit $46M (up nicely from ’24), backlog sitting strong at $31M, and they just GUIDED 2026 revenue to $60-70M while flipping to positive EBITDA in H2 2026.
They just unveiled the long-term capacity plan: up to 400 production systems over the next decade, backed by asset financing and an exploding defense + aerospace program portfolio.
This is the shift from “selling printers” to dominating Rapid Production Solutions (RPS) and becoming the metal AM backbone for the most critical industries on earth.
And let’s talk CUSTOMERS, because these are NOT random names:
@anduriltech
@SpaceX
Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Firefly
These guys are printing mission-critical components for hypersonics, satellites, drones, and next-gen weapons systems. When the defense budget is exploding and supply-chain resilience is national security, $VELO is the pick-and-shovel play that actually prints the parts.
Q4 was a mix (product mix + inventory write-down), but the full-year printer/parts revenue jumped 54% and the strategic pivot to high-margin RPS production is already in motion.
This is the moment the market wakes up and realizes Velo3D isn’t a SPAC corpse anymore - it’s the 3D leader of the new defense industrial base.
ir.velo3d.com/news-events/pr…
English
Can't wait for the $ONDS earnings today. There could not have been a better timing.
Just imagine if $ONDS becomes part of the Golden Dome program!
reuters.com/business/aeros…
InvestyMan@InvestyMan
Excellent deep dive by @Gouden_Vloot which points out the importance of the $ONDS Palantir partnership and how this indirectly links into other programs. Palantir would not have gone into this partnership with $ONDS alongside with Anduril if they are not convinced about the strength and portfolio of $ONDS. ondas.com/post/palantir-…
English
I was thinking exactly the same, when I saw the repost of @CeoOndas Brook.
Just imagine! This would be the best news ever for ONDAS!
I cross my fingers that $ONDS becomes part of the Golden Dome.
Just imagine this partnership:
Palantir+Ondas+Anduril
(plus later on Kraken Robotics that work anyways with Anduril already which would then add the maritime defense layer)
English
Excellent deep dive by @Gouden_Vloot which points out the importance of the $ONDS Palantir partnership and how this indirectly links into other programs.
Palantir would not have gone into this partnership with $ONDS alongside with Anduril if they are not convinced about the strength and portfolio of $ONDS.
ondas.com/post/palantir-…
Bev@Gouden_Vloot
English
@QGrowthCap @BMSInvests I have $KRKNF and $ONDS in my portfolio plus $OSS and $CODA.
English
@InvestyMan @BMSInvests Just buy $KRKNF + $ONDS, enjoy both rides, both great companies
English
🧵💭 One question that keeps popping up is: "How does $ONDS compare to its competitors?"
Well, let me break it down for you..in terms of the top-level business, Ondas has zero competitors.
Yes, you read that right.
Ondas is the only company in the world that has a fully integrated, autonomous stack of:
🦅 Aerial: Short/Long Range ISR, OWA/OWE, Swarms, & Motherships
🚜 Ground: Tactical UGVs, Dog Robots, Autonomous Heavy Vehicles & Demining
🛡️ CUAS/Defence: Soft/Hard Kill, AMPS & ASIO
🛰️ Strategic: Stratospheric ISR & Private Wireless Network
🧠 Software/Brain: AI Electro-Optical Sensors, Open-C2 Infrastructure & $PLTR Partnership
⚙️ Hardware: In-House Rotary Engines & Fiber-Optic Spools
Add in established US and European manufacturing through ONBERG/DMS, the capabilities gained through partnerships with $UMAC $KOPN $LPTH $SPAI & the new gateway into the Department of War through the acquisition of Mistral and you've got yourself an emerging powerhouse.
When you break the business down into subsidiaries/acquisitions, of course there are competitors.
Competition is expected and healthy.
Fortem's DroneHunter F700 is a more mature, proven version of Iron Drone Raider. But pair IDR with Sentrycs' Horizon and there's nothing like that on the market from one company without integrations.
DFEND is a direct competitor to Sentrycs with their CoRF technology. Again, pair Sentrycs' Horizon with IDR and you have an integrated stack of soft and hard kill CUAS you can't find anywhere else.
Elbit are heavyweights for laser-protection systems, but BIRD have disrupted the space with the world's smallest laser-jamming system that can be attached to Ondas' UAV's. Paired with Ondas Networks' FullMAX and/or Apeiro Motion's spools and you have hardened, un-jammable assets that can survive in high-threat EW environments.
Legacy primes and other established players in the defence industry have an edge in terms of reach, manufacturing capabilities etc. but Ondas' advantage is that they have a fully autonomous ecosystem, or 'System-of-Systems', that is scalable, agile and is gaining maturity rapidly.
These single-point 'tool' companies are fine, you can go to Skydio and get 50 X10's for a police force and they'll do the job, no problem.
However, Ondas aren't just chasing after these one-off hardware sales.
They've built their portfolio to target massive multi-hundred million tenders for national borders, international airports and other global critical infrastructure.
This means a steady influx of contracts and recurring high-margin software revenues, which is already being reflected in the contracts and tenders they've won the last few months.
Simply put:
Ondas is unique.
Ondas is disruptive.
Ondas is the future.
English
I think ONDAS is great and the strategy they run is excellent. But I think you are exaggerating a bit with some statements ;-)
At the end the market / customers will decide how good ONDAS is.
So far I consider them as defense start up company compared by revenues - even including the revenues from acquistions. They are not yet even under the Top 100. Ceck it out. people.defensenews.com/top-100/
It´s fine as it is. It is great to invest now, before they become big and expensive. I only ask to keep it realistic.
So far they have put together a great innovative portfolio. They have not yet even started to integrated the companies. They have not won a big contract yet under the name of Ondas.
Lot of things to proof for them. Even the CEO says this in his interview. You investors gave us trust and the funding, now it is up to us to deliver.
English
You haven’t understood the post, I agree with what you’re saying but try to digest the post for what it is (and what I actually said).
I said when you breakdown the company they have competition, and that primes have better reach and manufacturing capabilities etc. but in terms of their portfolio - no other company in the world has a deep, autonomous ‘system-of-systems’ like Ondas does.
Am I wrong here?
English
@weary_centurion I'm playing to buy some today. Not a huge a amount. Like 2K shares.
English
$ODD SHARE STRUCTURE
Public sites have the free float in Oddity Tech as around 39M
Here is why this info is worthless
Shares outstanding as of last filing: 56.6M
We then deduct the shares bought back since Q4 which I estimate to be at least 4M ($55M deployed at $11-13)
= 52.6M shares outstanding
Ownership breakdown:
CEO: 24.3%
BAILLIE GIFFORD: 15.8%
MORGAN STANLEY: 10.4%
L CATTERTON: 7.8%
CFO: 1.6%
This means 32.7M shares are locked as an absolute minimum
That leaves an absolute maximum float of around 20M
This is before accounting for smaller institutional longs and further buybacks conducted since the last confirmation we had
Factor that in and you could be looking at a tradable float of around 5-10M
Now here’s where it gets interesting
Short interest is listed as 8% or around 4.92M shares
But if you factor in the constrained float, the true figure could be more like 50%+ short interest
I don’t try to predict short squeezes, nor do I bank on them. But I do believe this is a candidate for a major one if the right circumstances align
Nobody cares about this stock
People cared about it for a day or two when they could make posts about it dropping -60% but now it’s back to being ignored again
And that’s precisely the kind of setup where unusual events can take place
I am not making any claims here. Just pointing out some facts about the share structure and speculating around how the next 12 months could play out
This post will probably go over most people’s heads and that’s fine, I get it
But I am documenting my thought processes because if I am proven to be correct I believe it could be very useful for people to look back on in the future
Let me know if you have any thoughts
This is not financial advice
English
It's called ROI - Return on Invest
I'm fine with it.
Just the real measure is not against revenue but against valuation of $ONDS as group = market cap.
You can have zero revenue and still be worth billions - check out biotech companies who spend billions on R&D for years before they make any revenue (or not!).
What matters for us investors is the share price not the revenue.
English
$ONDS Everyone likes to talk about dilution.
But almost nobody talks about what shareholders received in exchange.
Believe it or not, share issuance is not inherently bad.
Every major platform company used shares to build. The mechanism is not the problem.
The only thing that matters is whether the company received more value than it gave up.
So let’s talk about what was received:
Since July 2025, $ONDS has acquired Apeiro Motion, SPO, Insight, 4M Defense, Sentrycs, Roboteam, Rotron, BIRD, INDO Earth, Mistral, and World View.
11 businesses. All bought at private-market valuations. All folded into a platform with real contracts already in place.
Mistral alone adds $982M in Army IDIQ contract vehicles. BIRD brings ASIO and AMPS into a defense market that is actively spending. Rotron adds propulsion to a drone stack that needs it. World View adds persistent stratospheric intelligence.
That is the strategy in plain English:
1. Buy capabilities at private-market prices.
2. Deploy them inside a platform with real government contracts.
3. Create an enterprise worth more together than the individual pieces were worth apart.
That is the double dip:
Value created on the acquisition, then value created again through growth.
2024 revenue was $7.2M.
2025 revenue was $50.7M, up 605%.
2026 guidance is at least $375M, more than double the prior outlook from just two months ago.
Yes, the share count grew 4x,
but revenue grew 7x.
There are more shares outstanding, but each share is now backed by more revenue than before, and that is before the largest acquisitions have fully contributed.
Growth above 600% will not last forever, but it doesn’t need to.
The platform just needed to get assembled. Now, the test is whether it runs. Early indicators tell us that it does.
The $1.55B cash balance while still issuing stock looks contradictory only if you think cash and stock serve the same purpose.
They don’t.
Both are forms of consideration. You use whichever gets the deal done on the best terms. Some sellers want cash. Some want equity participation in what they are helping build. And keeping cash in reserve matters if management wants the ability to move quickly on the next opportunity without stopping to raise capital first.
The cash and the stock are both working, just in different ways.
You either believe in this M&A arbitrage model or you don’t.
If you don’t believe that buying real businesses at low valuations and compounding their value can create shareholder returns, this is not the stock for you.
If you do, then the conversation was never really about dilution.
It was about what the shares actually built.
English
@YoYInvestor @BMSInvests I don't know if it is priority or not but the CEO mentioned it at least twice that they look into it.
About Kraken: I'm just dreaming of course 😉
English
@InvestyMan @BMSInvests Maritime is not a priority for $ONDS at the moment, per management. $KRKNF is a highly unlikely acquisition target for the Ondas strategy
English
@YoYInvestor @BMSInvests We will see... It's clear that $ONDS will acquire some maritime defense company.
Take a look the other way around: Kraken is only Maritime! And they know that Ondas will invest into maritime defense.
Even though it's wild and Kraken big, it would be for both sides huge.
English
I disagree with everything you said,
respectfully.
Skana being small is the point. Ondas has never acquired headcount, they acquire IP and architecture. Skana’s entire system is designed for mass production and fleet-scale deployment. On Kraken: great company, but that ship has sailed. They announced the acquisition of Covelya Group for $615M CAD on March 3rd, raised $402.5M CAD in a share offering to fund it. They’re mid-transaction and freshly diluted. The “$2B market cap” is already stale.
English
@YoYInvestor @BMSInvests Skana is too small. Less than 50 employees. Cannot scale.
I also like $CODA but it's only components.
I have no good idea for now.
A merge with Kraken would be great. They also partner with Palantir already. Market cap of $ONDS is $5B and of $KRKNF $2B right now.
English
@InvestyMan @BMSInvests I have been an advocate for Skana Robotics. I don’t see Kraken being feasible
English
@BMSInvests @YoYInvestor I asked several times (see my profile) who $ONDS could acquire in maritime defense.
My wish would certainly be a merger with $KRKNF - would be absolutely great. But not sure this will work out.
English
My biggest position is $ONDS in my portfolio but I would never make a statement like you did "Ondas has zero competitors."
This is really wrong. Sorry.
There are huge competitors in the market. Way way bigger and way more established than Ondas.
Even the new revenue forecast is a joke vs the real players in defense.
Don't take me wrong I like the strategy of ONDS and this is why I'm invested, but this industry has been existing +100 yrs and $ONDS is a start up.
English
@InvestyMan Anduril doesn’t have UGV’s, true soft-kill CUAS, tethered UAV’s or a proprietary private network.
English
@itschrisray Sorry you missed Anduril. anduril.com This is a very serious competitor of $ONDS and also a partner of Palantir. Plus they have maritime defense in the portfolio that $ONDS does not (yet) have.
English
@NoPainInvesting Lets wait until the next $PYPL earnings May 6th. This is at least my strategy.
By then the new CEO has a good overview and he will lay out his strategy.
English
$PYPL
the market values the PayPal cryptocurrency and stablecoin segment at ZERO dollars.
Not sure where everyone is recently. But, I have been patient.
My guess is everyone is too busy buying stuff with 100 P/S and 1000 P/E
English
CONCLUSION
I hope I have demonstrated here exactly what I see and why I view the company in the way that I do. It might also explain why I am positioned how I am, even if you don’t agree or understand
2026 is uncertain. But if we take the guidance of -30% YoY growth for Q1 followed by a gradual recovery for the rest of the year, we should be looking at maybe -10% top line growth for the full year. Far from ideal but a result I can live with at the current valuation and the buyback program
I see that as a bad outcome. If they can fix the issue faster than anticipated it could end up being flat growth for the year or maybe low single digits
At present, there is simply no way of knowing and that’s precisely why it’s been sold to oblivion
But at the current valuation my plan is to just continue to DCA and wait for as long as it takes. I believe eventually, maths dictates the stock price and market cap
I’m not saying any of this to prove anything or to influence anyone. It’s just what I think
DISCLOSURE
I am not telling anyone to buy or sell oddity
This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor
In fact I have no financial qualifications or background whatsoever
I provide this analysis for educational purposes and for an honest assessment of what I see with $ODD
I accept my view points are likely biased (although I do strive for objectivity) and that I may be wrong
My content is for educational purposes only
I earn no money for any of my work on stocks and would never accept money to talk about selected stocks
All of my work is my own and formed from my own research and thinking
Make sure to do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments
English
$ODD UPDATED THOUGHTS & THESIS 🧵
3 weeks ago I became “the laughing stock of the internet” (according to one user who has since blocked me) after Oddity Tech tanked -50% in one trading day
2 days later I sold my other positions and bought the dip at $11-12. My avg cost pre-Q4 earnings was $35
At one point my position was down -70% and I spent that day questioning my sanity as well as my future as an investor
This happened just a few weeks after I lost -20% on $PYPL, a blow I was still recovering from
Two rug pulls in less than a month. My mental strength was tested beyond what I thought was possible
The hardest period of time was between the results being released and the earnings call. The lack of information played with my head during that time
With the help of @AuditTheHerd I came to my senses within an hour or so and after listening to the earnings call, logic started to take over my emotions once more and I could think clearly
I would like to think that I have proved my objectivity with $PYPL but I knew I would get dunked on by Fin-X regardless. And of course PayPal would be used to beat me round the head. I knew what was coming
I debated just deleting my account, never to return. But I didn’t do that. I faced the music however much I didn’t want to and remained accountable. I blocked more people that day than Iv blocked since I started my account. Every one of them justified. Smug gloating/ridiculing someone in that position is something I would never do and I have no interest in interacting with anyone who does that
A mixture of criticism and lecturing followed which comes with the territory. I suppose I deserve that to a degree after highlighting other stocks that have fallen like $HIMS, $IREN, $ONDS and $MSTR
Although my intentions were not to gloat but to assist people in looking for red flags. But I accept that such activity will inevitably result in comebacks when my own holdings tank hard in a short space of time
***POST CONTINUES IN THREAD***
Weary Centurion@weary_centurion
I have sold all other positions $ODD is now my only holding I will be slowly scaling in with my remaining cash The company is now trading below its cash balance at a market cap of around $680M It has enough liquidity to buy back all shares It has $776M cash and a $350M revolving credit facility (undrawn) This is a long term hold I will be holding for 10 years+ and happy to wait a long time The company is profitable and has repeat rates of 70% They have: • IL MAKIAGE • SpoiledChild • METHODIQ • Oddity Labs • Full AI tech stack • 72% gross margins All of which is worth 0 according to the market This is not an emotional decision I have been thinking about it constantly since Wednesday 2026 is likely a write off year but at below cash value, with their financial profile I honestly don’t care anymore There are people who will call me irresponsible for this All I will say is that I am common shares only with a long time horizon I don’t care about paper losses anymore because the company is now below liquidation value I have never seen anything as ridiculous as this in all my life The image below shows what they achieved in 2025 I am acutely aware of the risks here I am not telling anyone to buy this stock nor do I encourage anyone to follow what I’m doing Please do you your own due diligence before making any investment decisions and do not copy a random guy on the internet Not financial advice
English
Same thought on Water... CEO mentioned it in two recent interviews (at least) that they look into partnering/buying marine defense.
I just don´t know who (besides $KRKNF who I consider that they want to remain independant and which just themselves did a $615 Million Acquisition of the Covelya Group) would be an interesting and willing candidate to them?
$KRKNF I could only imagine with a stock exchange. Meaning they get part of $ONDS in return to join them.
Maybe $CODA? But they are not so strong in defense (no submarines)
x.com/InvestyMan/sta…
English
Before:
$ONDS + World View + $PLTR
Now:
$ONDS + $PLTR
Why?
Because $ONDS is acquiring World View and bringing that capability in-house
This adds stratospheric ISR via Stratollite, which sits in the layer between satellites and aircraft
Now the stack looks like this:
• Land
• Air
• Stratosphere
A fully integrated multi-domain autonomy platform
Only domain not covered yet?
Water
English
Not many talk about $PYPL these days. But actually it did not dip as much as others the last 6 weeks. In comparison it was actually really stable.
Silently doing changes is my feeling. Just likey the one below again.
Lycanbull@Lycanbull
$PYPL: 200 Million More Friends on Venmo -- Send Money to PayPal Users Around the World stocktitan.net/news/PYPL/200-…
English
$PYPL
Paypal's Mark Grether put out a presentation on the company's transaction graph and emerging cross retailer ad network. Link is below.
media.licdn.com/dms/document/m…
English