IridentDefender

@DannyDayan5 The US is doomed and is a permanently uninvestable country

People on this site are legit freaking out about bonds, so let me be a sober voice. 1) We've been at these levels many times this cycle. 2) We will get 5% CPI 3) Neither the 1week nor 1m change is excessive for this cycle. Calm down.

@jdcmedlock Isn’t one of the easiest way for poorer states to compete for business is by lowering taxes? Setting a kind of federal floor would essentially be hurting those states to benefit the richer ones, no?

I hate the race-to-the-bottom tax incentive game. The tax code should apply the same to everyone. If you get a windfall from a data center, you can lower rates for everyone rather than doing a sweetheart deal.

@hopes_revenge en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Couvade_s….

pregnancy ruined my body . i stopped being attracted to my wife and didn’t feel like using the Peleton anymore

@RampCapitalLLC Can you zoom out a little further? I think I can still see the dip

Damn the market got killed today

@buccocapital I’m still surprised how you see this kind of outcome but are against the narrative it would move the needle on unemployment at all

People asked why I was so blown away by Claude Cowork, so I thought I’d puke some quick thoughts out The true promise of Claude Cowork, and ultimately any sort of agentic, AI powered workflow tool is to realize the perfect embodiment of the organization as described by Peter Drucker, who famously said: “Because the purpose of business is to create a customer, the business enterprise has two--and only two--basic functions: marketing and innovation. Marketing and innovation produce results; all the rest are costs” Build the product and generate demand. That’s what drives value. Everything else is a cost If you’ve never worked in a large organization, it’s hard to truly explain how many “costs” there truly are, and how many of those costs are just a coordination tax. Take the launch of a new software product: The business needs to document how the product works, where it breaks and has errors. The support reps need to know how the support it. The onboarding and implementation team need to learn how to set it up. The Account Management team needs to learn how to upsell it and drive value through adoption. The sales team needs to learn how to sell it. The marketing team needs to position it in the marketplace and run campaigns about it. The partner network needs to learn it The amount of coordination, repackaging, enablement, internal distribution etc is. Absolutely. Staggeringly. Enormous. Hundreds of people involved. Thousands at larger businesses. Every one of these businesses have created convoluted templates and processes to document, enable, support, service, and sell Now imagine taking all the market research, customer feedback, data, decisions, positioning, and yes, code, and cascading that automatically through the organization, repackaged using the templates that have already painstakingly been created and refined and honed through hundreds of launches, to the relevant team with the correct context and packaging, directly into the hands of actual internal or external end user That’s the world that just got way, way, way closer to reality. In fact, the main reason it won’t happen any time soon are the people, many of whom will fight tooth and nail against this automation because they will fight like crazy to protect the status quo This is why you are already seeing AI-native startups move so quickly. Because product launches are cascaded through the organization and out to the customer with way less friction than incumbents can ever dream of Incumbents are going to have to whip their companies into the AI era. Their employees will not go willingly. But the future is here, and the startups are moving way, way faster

@hopes_revenge @cremieuxrecueil It would likely require an involuntary medical model though right? I know from an acquaintance’s experience that most systems let people leave a program whenever they want which can make it hard for people with very deep addictions to get clean

@cremieuxrecueil we don’t have to “give it to the libs” but this does feel like a point for people who advocate a more medical rather than carceral model . obviously what we are doing now isn’t working at all . very sad situation

Stats on the homeless population are awful. 1-in-2 has a disability and/or a traumatic brain injury. 1-in-5 has psychosis. 1-in-10 is schizophrenic. 1-in-4 is mentally retarded. These sorts of facts explain a lot!

@mattyglesias What efficiency measures have you implemented to maintain margins in such inflationary times?

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@Mike10947310 What's the bull case? Collapsing US world order, US dollar losing power, military getting stuck in another quagmire, our allies hate us, China is rapidly surpassing us - where are the positives?

@IridentDefender Well… I wouldn’t personally go that far haha

Houthis haven’t even done anything yet. It’s cash and PnL preservation time baby.

@aarmlovi I've seen anti-zoning reform champions like Mike Fellman continue to be baffled why Austin permit levels are still elevated even with drastically falling real rents. Seems to prefer his ideological priors over what the data is showing

I don't get this anti-Austin discourse? Even with *crashing* rents, now below the nominal 2019 rents and far below real 2019 rents... Permits in 2025 still came in at the long-term average for Austin...and above pre-2019 permit levels

@JerusalemDemsas The one thing to note is that homes in the best school districts are generally *not* what's targeted by institutional buyers. Those homes are too expensive relative to the rents they can get. They target middle class and lower class neighborhood for better cap rates

I just want progressives who believe this to take this to its logical extension: 1. People who cannot afford to buy are barred from living in single family homes 2. Neighborhoods with good schools are disproportionately made up of single family homes ...where does this end?

@mattyglesias It would help if they included measures to actually make it easier for these renters to buy a home as part of the bill to try and make up for effectively banning BTR

Moreno accurately characterizes this as an anti-renter measure, still not clear to me why the anti-liberal horseshoe thinks that’s a good idea.

@Merridew__ You’re not finance poasting from the womb? Must be hard to be so behind your peers

@NickWoolos US doomed, the experiment is over. What is the country to flee to?

@hopes_revenge What if I'm mentally deficient but not in TPOT, am I safe?

most of TPOT will die in the next 5 years . enjoy the timeline while you can ❤️

@YIMBYLAND The Austin mass exodus thing was always misleading as they only looked at Austin city limits as opposed to the metro (which has been growing this whole time). Austin metro has one of the most affordable income/rent ratio in the US now, no way people ditch that!

NEW US CENSUS DATA IS OUT Remember the whole "Austin Mass Exodus" news cycle from last year? I guess you could say the reports of our death are greatly exaggerated.

@buccocapital See if everything with full context can be automated by AI I don't see how that doesn't lead to much higher levels of unemployment

Context is now (and perhaps always been) the bottleneck on growth, because anything with full context can be automated. The race is on to make the collective brain of the organization legible to AI

Claude Cowork is blowing my mind. But it’s only as good as the context it can gather The race is on to capture every piece of context in the organization Companies will use carrots and sticks to get that context out of their worker’s brains. Work is about to get very weird

@jdcmedlock How do these look if we include things like Medicare vs other countries spending?

Here's a chart of pension spending as % of GDP. The US is notably modest on the public pension side, where we really stand out is our private retirement programs.

This website is wild, people just say things. "Social Security is *much* more generous that most other countries" No it's not - that's simply not true!

@TheStalwart People in other countries might not be familiar with the idea of wanting to avoid looking like a complete moron

Good time to remind followers not based in the US that in American culture there is a high premium placed on basically “saving face” which may be something useful to think about if you’re trying to figure out how this ends.

@paulnovosad @DanielDiMartino And the top 1% will be rich enough to buy elections wholesale in the country

If these trends persist for another 30 years, then the average U.S. household in 2055 will live as well as the top 1% lives today.