Iron Wolf Credit

@DannyDayan5 100% with you. I would add the other force (which is impacted by and related to both demographics and fiscal policy) as the wealth effect. You've been on all these factors for a long time. Respect.

Tomorrow I will release one of my most important notes to clients: Sticky Forces, explaining why fiscal policy and demographics are structural forces for inflation. This analysis is why I have said for years now that inflation will be sticky, and the neutral rate is higher.

@AahanPrometheus Love this!

Still in the works But here’s an interesting way to visualise signals Especially if you like the Prometheus view of the signal world

@CommodMkt thoughts on gold now? Has taken a beating since war began.

@jbulltard1 😂😂😂

My official stance on everything Trump does from the stock market to soccer bribes

Major cheat code for life: Assume good things are still ahead. You are not behind. You are not too late. You are not disqualified by your past. One new season can change the entire story. Keep showing up with belief. The best chapters are often written after the hardest ones.

This is Jim. He’s 78 years old, has been battling heart failure since 2023, and has lost both of his sons. He still deadlifts, trains, and posts motivational gym content in their honor

@conksresearch Stay well, Conks.

gm, say it back back on the operating table today, wish me luck have a good one

@MrnllMtt The only way to fix Italia is with a Javier Milei. Obviously, it will never happen though.

Italy has a problem. But, unfortunately, there is no real solution: wages are low, the tax burden is far too high, the economy is dominated by SMEs, and the country's work culture still operates according to outdated business models. These are all direct consequences of a country that is fundamentally old, gerontocratic, and largely uninterested in the future. On top of that, the country's fiscal and regulatory framework is structured in a way that is fundamentally hostile to entrepreneurship, while simultaneously creating enormous incentives for people to remain unproductive. Starting, growing, and scaling a business is often made unnecessarily difficult, whereas many forms of economic inefficiency are protected or even rewarded (see "posto fisso" in the public sector) If we then add public spending that is often ineffective (regardless of whether it comes from the left or the right), focused on handouts and simplistic solutions to complex problems (because no government plans beyond the next electoral cycle), we arrive at the current situation. How do you fix it? Potential solutions include technocratic governments capable of managing public finances more rationally, a reform of the pension system toward a largely private model, and a relentless drive for efficiency across the public sector. However, the moment any politician even mentions these ideas, their political career is effectively over. So it will never happen.

@typesfast It's terrible. The lines are crazy. Nearly missed my flight from there. It's so disorganized.

Is there a dumber airport in the world than Lisbon?

@TheFlowHorse Wow, thats what i want to experience too! Incredible!

How I imagined the American dream when I was a kid binge watching Wall Street. Feels good man.

@TheFlowHorse Incredible view.

Summermode starts now.

@BenDaDonnn 😂

THIS SHIII IS SO GHETTO 😐😐😐 YALL WILL EAT ANYTHING 😒

@GregAbbott_TX 😂

Spurs about to dunk on Knicks like Texas has been dunking on New York. Go Spurs Go 🔥👽

@DannyDayan5 FCI models have been spot on despite being super contrarian at times.

If you have followed me for awhile, you know I do my own research and build a ton of analytics and economic models. I can honestly tell you the best thing I have ever built are my FCI models. Nothing comes close. It is like an advanced warning system for what is to come.

@conksresearch 😂

@DannyDayan5 Listened to your most recent podcast interview with @fejau_inc. Got to hand it to you, your calls have been money this whole cycle. Post covid, its financial conditions that rule the economy. Everything else has been noise.

I estimate 9TRN now. This impact dominates everything else and it is not even close. FCI is in complete spiral mode.

@GaetenD Sauce?

@dampedspring You're 100% correct that during risk off periods where correlations=1 across all major asset classes, RV shits the bed. But during the risk on periods, it should provide uncorrelated returns. Agree with you that it's a good alternative to equity. You ever interact with Bob Treue?

RV is a lousy diversifier 101 note I spent the first 18 years of my career doing RV trades across vol, credit, and fixed income markets. I blew up (along with all my peers) in 1994, 1997-1998 Was on the sidelines in 2008 (semi retired) would have blown up huge though What's common about RV and its first cousin of providing liquidity for illiquid assets hedged with liquid ones is they are excellent diversifiers to an equity portfolio when equities are modest down, sideways, or up but are absolutely horrible diversifers when equity markets crash. Every major and most minor EV hedge fund blowups happen in an equity drawdown. These blowups are perfectly correlated to your equity drawdown at the exact moment when you need them to be uncorrelated. Yet time and time again RV is pitched as a diversifier that commands high fees. Better to diversify with low cost liquid assets which truly diversify your risk and diversify with trend following strategies RV fits in a portfolio as an alternative to equity NOT as a diversifier imho. I've seen in for decades and lived through it myself. I loved RV and practiced it at an elite level. But now I consider it just another leveraged beta

@BickerinBrattle 😂

Always surprised when what I consider my best stuff goes by unnoticed. And this stuff destroys about 90% of those you read here main thesis on bonds and hence equity. Recession ongoing. Started in 2025.

"We want to stop inflation, but we don’t want to stop greatness." - bonds are trash @sidprabhu @DannyDayan5 @rev_cap x.com/i/status/20578…