Jón Bjarki

I wrote about plastic prices in yesterday's Odd Lots newsletter ahead of today's episode (which you should definitely listen to) Packaging really is an underappreciated driver of inflation, and plastics prices are already spiking You can't buy a bag of carrots without petroleum

Just saw a Ryan Gosling interview where he says he liked the story of Project Hail Mary because it has the message that the future isn't something to be feared, it's something to be figured out. And that's a message he wants his kids to hear. Awesome.

Fyrir áhugasama gæti þetta mælaborð Trading Economics yfir hrávörur og orku verið gagnlegt þessa dagana. Monthly dálkurinn er nálægt því að sýna breytingar frá því Persaflóastríðið hófst og YtD dálkurinn sýnir verðbreytingar frá áramótum. tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Tengi: islandsbanki.is/is/frett/persa…

@steg9 80% eru tölur frá 2024. Sjá hér: islandsbanki.is/is/frett/orkul…

@JBentsson 90% 2020 😎hef ekki séð nýrri tölur

“Hann sagði jafnframt að Spánn væri það land sem væri best til þess fallið að takast á við vandann þar sem það reiddi sig svo mikið á endurnýjanlega orkugjafa. Þeir eru 55% af orkunýtingu Spánverja.” Ísland: Sé þig og hækka í 80% 😎 ruv.is/frettir/erlent…

@doridna Hún er þá amk að virka :)

ekki búinn eiga þessa espresso vél í sólarhring og er kominn með gáttaflökt.

🛢️There's a lot being said about oil prices right now, so I put this chart together to help explain the major crude benchmarks and why they're all behaving differently. ⚪Brent (white) — The world's "default" oil price. Most global trade is priced off this. When the news says "oil is at $108," they mean Brent. 🟡WTI (yellow) — The U.S. benchmark, based on crude delivered to Oklahoma. It's the lowest line on the chart because American oil doesn't need to transit the Strait of Hormuz. 🟢Murban (green) — Crude from Abu Dhabi, delivered at Fujairah port, which sits just outside the Strait. Even though it technically doesn't have to pass through the chokepoint, drone strikes have hit Fujairah and nearby ports, pushing insurance and shipping costs up. 🟣Oman (purple) — The key benchmark for heavier crude sold into Asia. Many refineries in China, Japan, and South Korea are built specifically to process this grade. It's the highest line on the chart because Asian buyers are competing fiercely for a shrinking pool of cargoes. 🔴Dubai (red) — Used to price most long-term Gulf→Asia export contracts. It tracks alongside Oman as a measure of how hard Asian markets are being squeezed. The story isn't any single price — it's the gap between them. In late February these five lines were within $6 of each other. Now the spread between WTI and Oman is over $50. Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb 28, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed. Daily transits have fallen from a historical average of ~138 ships to fewer than 5. The IEA has called it the largest disruption to global energy supply in history. Iran's IRGC has warned that not "a litre of oil" will pass for U.S. allies, while selectively allowing some Iranian, Indian, and Pakistani tankers through. Saudi Arabia is rerouting oil to its Red Sea port at Yanbu, and the UAE is using a pipeline to Fujairah — but combined pipeline capacity is only 3.5–5.5 million barrels/day vs the 20 million that normally flows through the Strait. Meanwhile, the 400 million barrel emergency reserve release by IEA members covers roughly 4 days of global consumption. Japan's refiners get ~95% of their crude from the Gulf. China receives 45% of its oil via Hormuz. South Korea, India, Thailand, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are all severely exposed. The wider the spread between the Asian benchmarks and Western ones on this chart, the more you're seeing that pain in real time.

@konradgudjons @vidaringa Það var líka gólf í árlegu launahækkunum í Stöðugleikasamningunum sem tryggði fólki á lægstu laununum tæplega 24þús árlega hækkun að lágmarki sem og þessi klásúla:

@vidaringa Því það er frekar við opinbera markaðinn að sakast (11% hækkun minnir mig)? Og því að þegar upp er staðið er lendingin alltaf sú, í mjög þéttri launadreifingu, að hækkun lægstu launa fer upp launastigann?

VR semur um 3,5% hækkun launa (framleiðni + markmið Seðlabankans). Vísital launa hækkar um 7-8%, ágætasta launaskrið. Launaskrið er þegar vinnuveitendur greiða meira en samið var um. Hvers vegna að pönkast í verkalýðshreyfingunni?

Þarna toppaði ég. Það getur ekki annað verið.

I'm not going to celebrate Paul Ehrlich's death. I just wish he lived long enough to admit that the world is getting much better, population growth is good, and his intellectual methods were deeply corrupt. A belated apology to Julian Simon would also be warranted.

The UK is wild

Þessi blessaða bók, "The Population Bomb" og kenningin sem hún fjallar um var einn helsti kvíðavaldur Vesturlandabúa í æsku minni, ásamt gatinu á ósonlaginu og kjarnorkustríðsvánni. Sem betur fer hefur "speki" Erlich elst álíka vel og kenning Malthusar nokkrum öldum fyrr.

Það er víðar en hjá Hagstofu Íslands sem hagvaxtartölurnar eru endurskoðaðar hressilega. Bandaríska hagkerfið er þá kannski ekki “roaring” eftir allt saman?

Svona fór um sjóferð þá. 55% svarenda eru á óbreyttum vöxtum en 45% á vaxtahækkun. Verður spennandi miðvikudagsmorgunn!

Sorglegt ef það gerist en önnur niðurstaða væri hins vegar vísbending um að PSN hefði fundið sér annað áhugamál en verðstöðugleika … mbl.is/vidskipti/fret…

Nú er vika í næstu vaxtaákvörðun Seðlabankans. Hvað gerir peningastefnunefndin 18. mars? (full disclosure: Greining ÍSB spáir 0,25% vaxtahækkun).

@erlendur Nei, menn þar eru örugglega sultuslakir. En PeningaStefnuNefnd Seðlabankans (hvers fulla nafn étur upp hálft tvít) er trúlega aðeins órólegri…

@JBentsson Ég efast að PlayStation Network missi svefn yfir þessu…

Þessi könnun ætti að vera PSN áhyggjuefni. Þó 30% svarenda myndu sjálfir leggja til stýrivaxtahækkun í næstu viku býst innan við helmingur þess hóps (13% svarenda) við vaxtahækkun. Öðruvísi mér áður brá. vb.is/frettir/oll--v…