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DSLR shot of yesterdays tornadic supercell that impacted #Wentworth, NC. Time~ 7:45pm. #ncwx
Blacksburg, VA 🇺🇸 English
Justin Buchinsky
2.8K posts
Justin Buchinsky
@JBuchinskyWX
Meteorologist (MSc Student @LMU_Muenchen). Former Wildfire Met @ San Diego. Covering Severe Weather & Wildfire. 🇺🇸 ➡️ 🇩🇪 | Tweets in 🇬🇧
Munich, Bavaria Katılım Mayıs 2016
340 Takip Edilen1.7K Takipçiler
Convection season has commenced in Bavaria with a shortwave firing a cluster of thunderstorms west/south of Munich today, bringing frequent lightning and small hail #gewitter
Unwetterjaeger@unwetterjager
@Kachelmann @Kachelmannwettr @Alpinwetter UPDATE: Gewitter bei Memmingen in Bayern aktuell! Wir sind weiterhin LIVE auf Twitch und Youtube. Schaut vorbei! ⛈️🌪️
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@sambrandt99 Found this from a satellite lecture I had last semester. It represents your tweet very well. Satellite data is king for model performance.
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A reduction in balloon launches definitely doesn’t make NWP better, but to be frank the number of in-situ soundings assimilated into NWP from aircraft takeoffs and landings dwarfs NWS balloons, which is itself dwarfed by data from satellite retrievals.
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@WxScholl Yo if you’re still dealing with this, any other peculiar issues? Car turning off by itself when idle? Electric issues?
Also check oil for coolant
My old car would do the exact same thing, light would come on just long enough for me to notice, then disappear.
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STOP PLEASE I DONT NEED MORE SHIT GOING ON, it keeps flashing and going away very quickly lol
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@VORTEXJeff I would suspect some sort of subsidence/forcing for ascent issue with slight warming of temperatures and no real shear above 700mb
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Despite an environment that seems favorable for rotating storms, the 00Z HRRR only develops disorganized convection with little UH near the IA/IL border Thursday afternoon. A few theories:
Urbana, IL 🇺🇸 English
Who thinks they have the best photo of a classic southern Plains blue-core HP meatball supercell I can use for my presentation?
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@AriWeather @ScottDimmich @dalesamsWx Unrelated to verification or not, but want to add:
Actual observed (instrumentation) severe gusts are quite uncommon east of the Appalachian Mountains, and observed sig gusts are very rare.
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@ScottDimmich @dalesamsWx Easy to line up wind LSRs and say "no bust" but you're not mentioning the massive 15% cig1 tor bust. Also even with wind, I'd argue it verifies enhanced. Very few 75+ gusts too. Could've been worse but to say they undershot the risk is totally off
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Saying the Storm Prediction Center "screwed up" with their Moderate Risk / Level 4 out of 5 risk yesterday reminds of sports fans who leave the game 10 minutes before the end of the game saying "we lost."
Dare I say they *undershot* the risk in part of that area? #wxtwitter
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Hard to have a forecast go off the rails as hard as today did. Have to feel for forecasters who must both respect the obvious potential of the event and face the consequences of the floor being realized.
Justin Buchinsky@JBuchinskyWX
Trends have not been the Mid-Atlantic's friend. The prefrontal trough has trended slower. Besides the obvious implication of greater instability, the more worrying consequence is how the warm sector now aligns with an ejecting negatively tilted shortwave. (1/3) #vawx #ncwx
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@SevereSoundings The kinematic environment along and ahead of that frontal passage is really quite something. The region is very fortunate the warm sector was worked over beforehand.
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Stormnet is more bullish than I am - tornadoes in particular - But, we'll see what happens.
Severe Weather Soundings@SevereSoundings
Haven't looked at upper air maps in a couple days for today. But, important changes happened. Models did not handle the evolution well. Instead of a stronger ejection up into Canada - putting right entrance region across Mid-Atlantic. Morphed into a more delayed jet streak. Sig severe weather in the evening makes more sense for Virginia & North Carolina. If any air mass recovery can occur.
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Justin Buchinsky retweetledi
The current evolution has considerably decreased tornado chances due to excessive convection. However, a robust wind threat remains very much on the table as a strong jet streak moves in, with a shallow convective line capable of significant damage winds occurring later today.
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Immediately adjacent to the QLCS crossing the Appalachian Mountains surface winds are veered. This will limit tornado potential in the near term. Gusty winds and brief tornadoes remain possible due to the copious speed shear.
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@forecaster25 Remarkable surface winds are backing so hard with the parent low in Canada
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A legit EML is showing up on the NAM now over a clean warm sector + a mesolow over Western VA.
This is a higher-end scenario.
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I can not recall ever seeing the Extreme Forecast Index show such, well, extreme, weather for such a widespread area!
Record breaking #heatwave locked and loaded for next week.
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@Brady_Wx Thank you for the response. I noticed the disparity in time steps but would have assumed that the high one hour probs would show a stronger reflection in the 12 hour forecast. Alas, I see they are different runs.
Good luck with continued development.
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A couple of reasons:
-The forecast in this screenshot is a 1hr timestep, not the entire 12hr period.
-The forecast in this screenshot is from today, the last 12hr period forecast on the account was from Friday.
Inside of 48 hours, the model updates every hour so we don’t do the 12hr chunk autoposts (currently)
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One of the greatest strengths of StormNet is the 2-min updates.
It sees everything meteorologists are seeing in real-time, from fronts moving faster/slower or patterns on satellite.
It is analyzing all of this data and making refinements to the forecast constantly.
StormNet@StormNetWx
Severe storms and tornadoes are likely today and tomorrow across the eastern half of the country. Follow StormNet's tornado, wind, hail, and lightning forecasts through the event. The model runs every 2 minutes, always ingesting the latest atmospheric data available.
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@weathermandave_ Also had the h word creep into my mind playing the same 500mb plot for myself this morning. Extremely impressive dynamics.
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This is just insane for the east coast/mid-atl.
50/50 high risk by 1630z tomorrow...
Likely all depending on prevalence of AM junkvection
GIF
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