But if they want to try I guess we’ll see how it works out for them.
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John Hagner
3.6K posts
John Hagner
@JHagner
Intense amateur patissier. Minnesota transplant. Pollster, data analyst, co-founder of @WorkbenchStrat
Minneapolis, MN Katılım Mart 2017
514 Takip Edilen4.4K Takipçiler
Florida Republicans aren’t going to gerrymander themselves 5 new seats and protect all their incumbents in an environment where plurality R electorates by registration are swinging 14 points to Dems.
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@baseballot I don't think election twitter has even begun to think about how different the firms releasing public polling this cycle are to the firms who released public polling in the past.
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Other generic ballot averages, including Silver Bulletin and FiftyPlusOne, show minimal movement. It's best not to read anything into small twitches in polling averages.
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I think this overstates things. The generic ballot was only at D+6 for a few days in February; it's spent most of the year in the D+5-5.5 range.
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini
The narrative is shifting toward Democrats… but so far national polling isn’t. Since February, the generic ballot has actually moved toward Republicans: 🔵 Feb 1: D+6.0 🔵 Today: D+4.7 🔴 Shift: R+1.3
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I got to MSP three hours before my flight today and was through security in 87 seconds. This airport is such a treasure.
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Fun (?) fact - in early iterations of this (terrible) idea, it's been impossible for existing AI models to create synthetic respondents who are as mean or as negative as actual voters.
Jacob Rubashkin@JacobRubashkin
Imagine trust in polling being at an all time low and then doing “polls” where a quarter of respondents are AI agents hallucinating answers based on exit polling.
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Sometimes it's hard to come up with political messages, but "Republicans are in charge of everything and it's bad" feels like it's covering a lot of bases right now.
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It's a political and moral and national security imperative to win the biggest possible 2026 victory and then stay hungry as hell all the way through 2028.
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If you are one of those people who once believed that Trump voters are never going to abandon him and that Democrats can't possibly persuade people and shouldn't try, now is the time to put those beliefs on a cloud and let them float away.
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The last part of @lxeagle17's write up is the most important part of this - as bad as this is for Republicans, there is every reason to think it will get worse for them soon.
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17
New poll from us @TheArgumentMag. D+7 generic ballot, -18 Trump approval. Worst poll for Republicans yet. A big reason 2026 might be worse for the GOP than 2018 was: the economy is worse, and people are far angrier about that now than they were back then. theargumentmag.com/p/americans-wo…
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John Hagner retweetledi
New poll from us @TheArgumentMag. D+7 generic ballot, -18 Trump approval. Worst poll for Republicans yet.
A big reason 2026 might be worse for the GOP than 2018 was: the economy is worse, and people are far angrier about that now than they were back then.
theargumentmag.com/p/americans-wo…
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John Hagner retweetledi
One day, Donald Trump will die, and his supporters will try to punish the people who say things like this.
Shelby Talcott@ShelbyTalcott
Trump on the death of Robert Mueller: “Good, I’m glad he’s dead.”
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The sheer scale of turnout in IL-09 is wild. Melissa Bean won next door in the 8th with 21k votes, which would put her in pretty distant 4th place in IL-09.
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Hard to overstate how damaging knowing who people like Ric Grenell are has been to my mental health. We don’t have space to know this many villains.
Sam Stein@samstein
Grenell is OUT, per @axiosalex axios.com/2026/03/13/gre…
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@AliceinDCland Free policy idea: $50 tolls at the Maryland border, funds raised earmarked for maternity care and transit
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ok once again it costs $0 not to drive recklessly in a city full of pedestrians and cyclists
Rini Sampath@RiniSampath
I see a lot of people in my circles criticizing Kenyan for his take on speed cameras, and I want to offer a nuanced perspective. Last night in Ward 8 I heard a lot of frustration about them. If you’re making $19,000 a year, a $200 ticket is devastating. But the answer here isn’t eliminating technology that keep pedestrians and children safe. We need to address the root of the problem, focus on why speed cameras are even up for debate. To me, when people feel squeezed by housing, groceries, and utilities, government penalties feel predatory. The way we address that cost of living crisis is by attracting more businesses and creating more jobs, while making sure those jobs lift up the residents who need opportunity the most. Leadership means holding these nuances at the same time. If you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be sitting in the mayor’s office. I will continue to push both DC residents and our mayoral candidates to embrace this type of nuance throughout this race. riniformayor.com
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The Illinois primary coincides with both St Patrick’s Day and this blizzard, so try and factor drunk people fighting through the snow into your turnout models.
Ryan Maue@RyanMaue
Monumental snowfall totals expected in next 7-days across the Great Lakes. 30" to 48" from Green Bay to Traverse City and northward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Epic blizzard starts Sunday
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“National forces basically installed” is a funny way to say the state Republican Party took the extraordinary step of endorsing him over a statewide elected official! But Republicans love nothing more than pretending they don’t have any agency and can’t make any decisions.
Ryan Brune@BruneElections
Anecdotal, but a lot of Republicans are pretty mad here that national forces basically installed Ramaswamy as the nominee.
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John Hagner retweetledi
New Ohio poll shows Amy Acton has built a 10-point lead over Vivek Ramaswamy in the Governor's Race 👀
Acton 53 - Ramaswamy 43
Brown 51 - Husted 47
theoec.org/wp-content/upl…
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Risky assumption on the part of the campaign that people thinking about Vivek Ramaswamy for the next 8 months will make them more likely to vote for him. Increased exposure to Vivek Ramaswamy hasn’t been beneficial to Vivek Ramaswamy in any other context.
Andrew Tobias@AndrewJTobias
Vivek Ramaswamy's governor campaign has announced a $10m ad campaign running through Election Day. One ad features the Republican sheriff of Ottawa County emphasizing how Ramaswamy backs the blue. The other features his wife, Apoorva, and co-stars his month-old baby daughter.
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A lot of 👀 emojis here but the Gov numbers maybe the most 👀 of all
CJ Warnke@cjwarnke
🚨NEW #TX23 poll from @HouseMajPAC🚨 Trump Fav: 45% Trump Unfav: 52% @katy4congress: 40% Brandon Herrera: 42% Herrera Fav: 29% Herrera Unfav: 35% @GinaHinojosaTX: 48% Greg Abbot: 48% @jamestalarico: 48% Cornyn: 42% Talarico: 49% Paxton: 44% 2024 Vote: Trump +12
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