JK Tastor

@LibertyCappy Agree

Why did the movie Avatar make so much money? I still don't get it... the movie was incredibly mid

@BRICSinfo Its does look like they aint closing shit

JUST IN: 🇾🇪 Yemen's Houthis say they will close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if US President Donald Trump continues to obstruct peace.

@Kacper_PK_CH Whats ur take on it? Is it gonna gap up?

OpEx Friday

3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February. Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance. The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible. 1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork. The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40. Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT. Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD. 2nd was Syria. The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean. The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed. This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next. 3rd was Venezuela. In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily. The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone. Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to.. 4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock. Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled. The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States. If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil. This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system. The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency. The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves. But the US grand strategy goes deeper.. Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths. By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale. The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas. On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls.. Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy. Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal. Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass. Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years. Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost. Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first. The US is seizing all 3.

@pEwnOy202261 @graddhytrading 💯

@graddhytrading Every comment from you even just one word is extremely valuable information to me. I’ve been truly impressed since join service. I never think there to be one who strong analytical skills. I really admire that. Thanks so much, G. wish you and family good health and happiness.

@Kacper_PK_CH Ur bag heavy?

Finally, some investment in copper, we'll need much, much more going into 2030s. $FCX

The mechanics cut against the stated goal. A US crude export ban lowers WTI by trapping barrels domestically, widens the WTI-Brent spread, and removes US supply from global markets, which pushes Brent higher, not lower. The countries with fuel cost problems right now are running on Brent-linked crude, not WTI. Beyond that: suppressing WTI to the $60-65 pre-disruption baseline destroys the economics for the marginal shale producer at exactly the moment US production is supposed to be the swing supply. The Hormuz problem is 8-10 mb/d of Gulf supply at risk. US exports are roughly 4 mb/d total. The math on this as a solution does not close.

@Kacper_PK_CH So long oil?

Powell was full of insights today, but I have to say, it’s hard to argue with him on this. Yes, producers need the forward curve to move up at least a few years out to increase production (chart via tradingview). And then he added things like “wait and see” and “we just don't know” - just like a real trader would. 😉

@graddhytrading Agree, the view alone already excellent sir

@trieu6878 Lãnh tụ đấy

Khứa Lê Nin này có phải là người VN có nhiều follower nhất không các bác nhỉ? Trước thấy có bạn Hoàng Thế Đức dạo này mất tích đâu rồi

@NghiaT91 @LeninUGReal 1 từ thôi Đừng! 🌝

@LeninUGReal Thế còn Khí tự nhiên #LNG ?

15 years ago he already saw oil prices going to $300. Even though Iran doesn’t possess nuclear weapons, he will still push oil prices to $300, haha The current oil price is $97. Our strong support zone is $86–$80. If positive news over the weekend or early next week pushes oil back down to the $90–$92 area, consider buying. Our targets will be $105, $147, $200, and $315.

@Jordan96Forever @mistressdivy It is

@mistressdivy Wildest weekly candle on oil I ever seen.

Oil futures are about to be a bloodbath

@Crypto_f_V @grok @NoLimitGains @TheGreenHammer I think the answer is not what u ask for. The guy just investing, hes buying the asset around that time, since he’s buying daily. Hes not trading like taking entry or profit point

@grok @NoLimitGains @TheGreenHammer Exactly without full logs it is impossible to judge the real performance how many trades were actually losers

Called the Bitcoin top at 126K, shorted ZEC at the exact top (literally the top), called OIH, XLE & NTR, all in profit. Not to brag, but I don’t have a single losing trade in the history of my X account. Not one. What’s the secret? I don’t overtrade. When there’s no money to be made, I don’t force it. Simple as that. And I never use leverage. NEVER. I spend hours on analysis, and when the perfect setup presents itself, I buy or sell spot with millions of dollars. Anyway, I’ve analysed hundreds of stocks and I might’ve found something great. Turn on notifications and pay attention. That’s all I’m asking.

@LeninUGReal Hóng lt ơi

Nhiều anh em bảo X bị hack à . Thật ra đang chạy AI test thử viral Nước ngoài xem ntn . Ổn thì sẽ chỉ anh em cách auto content từ 1 nội dung và Tối ưu để viral Global phục vụ cho nhiều mục đích - Ngon nhất lad anh em nào muốn làm Free Traffic để Affiliate .

@Apocollapse_Now @graddhybpc Lol, u new? Short is a game where u trade using ur soul 🌝

@graddhybpc I'm a member of your services. I seem to see lots of buy signals but no sell signals.

Oil was at $58.40 in the linked post below. Now at $101 ! The linked post below nailed the low; posted at green dot. That is the kind of guidance that makes a difference. Following the right people is absolutely vital. #joinus graddhy.com Price target raised to $369.

@graddhytrading Sorry to hear, wish her good luck

@PractPreserver @Kacper_PK_CH Its how u learn lol

@Kacper_PK_CH Is there a way to play this game for stock broker newbies like me and not loose money?

Whatever happens next, this week will be in the history books. Oil, gas, coal.

@Kacper_PK_CH @JoshYoung @LloydsList Look foward to it

All I'm doing this weekend is modelling the consequences of a Hormuz closure if it continues for at least a month. Oil, of course, but also natural gas, fertilisers, agricultural prices, industrial impact (especially in Europe and Asia), coal demand pickup, air traffic and travel. So many things could follow.

Strait of Hormuz transits have collapsed

@ctindale @grok summerize this