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John T
11.3K posts
John T
@JTatLife
Dutch citizen, Noord Hollander ...just trying to figure things out
Noord Holland Katılım Nisan 2014
239 Takip Edilen241 Takipçiler
I could, of course, be completely wrong about this, but given the stakes for US and allies (Hormuz especially), its possible that there would need to be a Beirut 1983 sized loss of life for the US to change course on this.
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About a week ago I thought there was a strong possibility that Trump would declare victory and leave, and that could still happen. But I'm increasingly skeptical that he can and will. I think instead there is an increasing possibility that the conflict will go on for months.
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@idreesali114 Sure are many possibilities - the US Marines, the US 82nd Arirborne, the US 101st, the US Rangers.....
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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says can't do a revolution (in Iran) from the air, there needs to be a ground component as well. He says there are many possibilities for a ground component but won't share they are.
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@BretDevereaux @sarcasticSyzygy As I understand it, ships traversing the strait at its narrowest point are basically within ordinary artillery range of the shore, so in principle you could launch a Grad barrage at them, which is not what their systems are designed for at all
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@sarcasticSyzygy Not an expert on this, but my sense is the worry here is 1) Burkes dispersed to deal with escort duties and then 2) attack via multiple vectors (ASMs, drones, water-drones, boats, mines) to over-task the Burke so that one gets through.
It only takes one.
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One of the oddities of the current strait crisis is how Iran's stockpile of relatively modern anti-ship missiles is mostly not part of the conversation, because they're not using them against tankers - presumably saving them for warships.
But they are the crux of the matter.
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@KKriegeBlog I find this is the key point. Contemporary state/ military leaders really needed a clear view on who could do what and their archives mostly survive. If their correspondence suggests that they thought someone wsa particularly effective, we should be very slow to dismiss that.
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Not being Napoleon does not mean that Frederick wasn't successful. Indeed, he was the most successful warlord of his generation. His abilities, questioned by modern academics and enthusiasts, were feared by his contemporaries. 19/22
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It's the birthday of one of the most important eighteenth-century figures: Frederick II of Prussia, or as he is commonly known in English, Frederick the Great.
In 1725, 300 years ago today, he would have been 13.
A thread on Fritz. As a general, how great was he? 1/22
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@johnb78 Bit shallow and political, rather than clever-stupid. Mostly comparisons were made with Blair, which in retrospect were off-base. (Blair was a political animal - and a warmonger - but had a much more coherent view of what he wanted the UK to be, and clearer red lines)
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8/9 Or will Moscow obfuscate, deny, throw out conflicting narratives, and coerce Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan into a shared lie, leveraging its military, economic and diplomatic might? Shades of how Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was handled.
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Thread: Russia's version of multipolarity, tested by the downing of an Azerbaijani plane. 1/9 The incident with the downed Azerbaijani flight is a stark illustration of what "multipolarity" means in the Russian worldview:
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@Everything2Win @APHClarkson @Michael_Bachari In the UK alone the the current Mayor of London, the previous First Minster of Scotland and a recent Chancellor (Finance Minister) were practicing Muslims. The previous Prime Minister was a Hindu (so also not loyal to the state religion).
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@APHClarkson @JTatLife @Michael_Bachari Anything other than the Millet System is strongly unrealistic. Even in the West u can't be openly Muslim and have high positions in Govt and Business. U must show some loyalty to the powers that be.
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Going back to precedents set in Idlib, a lot of this work echoes aspects of the Ottoman Empire's Millet System
Aaron Y. Zelin@azelin
Bashir al-Ali, Director of the Sects Affairs Directorate within HTS’s Political Affairs Department visited the Christian neighborhood of Dwel'a in Damascus.
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@APHClarkson @Michael_Bachari I know from friends' experience that even long term foreign residents of the Gulf states forget that they live in ruthless sectarian autocracies until they run into one of the invisible walls surrounding their 'millet'.
Then they can find out - big time.
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@APHClarkson @Michael_Bachari I thought it was a really useful reminder that in the minds of both Turkey and Gulf State leaders there are models (including the latters' current ones!) that are both undemocratic and oppressive of minorities but also quite pragmatic and long-term successful (in their eyes)
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@Michael_Bachari @APHClarkson Given that the Ottomans operated versions of this system for half a millenium, whilst denying practicing non-Muslims any state power, it is not obvious that this is a stepping stone to anywhere.
It'd be a solid upgrade on both Assadism or Islamic fundamentalism, but that's it.
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@APHClarkson It would be a nice starting point towards a pluralistic and democratic society
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@APHClarkson Interesting angle. Not only does it have clear historical precedent in the region, it would also represent (as it did in the past) an alignment between the perceived demands of Islam that form the bedrock of HTS and the commercial pragmatism that they have been touting recently.
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Because ISIS and the Assad regime leave such horrifying legacies, a kind of market capitalist neo-Ikhwani one party state in which minorities are left alone through quasi-Millet structures might seem much less onerous.
But that would not represent a democratic or open society.
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@Naramsin20 @flying_rodent It may be that things have changed in the last 10 years (some smart people seem to think so) and this won’t happen. But in 2013 every side was at peak homicidal mania, and I never heard anyone explain how intervention wouldn’t generate more murder
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@flying_rodent Wonder what they'll say when the beheadings begin and will they post pictures of Damascus pre 2025 and post 2025 when woman aren't allowed out at all
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What actually happened was that Miliband asked Cameron some of the most basic questions about what exactly lobbing a few missiles at Damascus was supposed to achieve and not only did Cameron have no reasonable answer at the time, but none of these dorks did then or since.
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@duncanrobinson @APHClarkson The fact that this seems to be controversial online suggests that people need to get out more.
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@APHClarkson My wild centrism: net migration should less than 900k and more than zero. Can labour tread this gigantically wide path??????
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Labour was elected on a platform of cutting migration. Big majority of Labour voters think migration has been too high. Concern about migration tracks actual numbers. Why wouldn’t there be a reward for *actually* cutting immigration?
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@Daark_Karma @APHClarkson It seems like that now, but it wasn't that long ago that OMON troops were thought to be needed in huge quantities to keep everyone quiet.
Ethnic Russians might be subservient at the moment, but it's not clear that all the millions of other Russian citizens are.
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@APHClarkson Personally I think years or decades in this case. The people are so docile they probably don't need as many police as some countries would before it gets overwhelming
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Erosion of state repressive capacity. As with economic trouble it is a visible regime vulnerability now.
The problem in analysis is there is no way of knowing whether a regime vulnerability becomes acute crisis in the near term or whether it can stay chronic for years or decades
Francis Scarr@francis_scarr
Russian police face a personnel shortage of almost 20%, Interior Ministry spokeswoman Irina Volk has said According to Volk, there's now a shortage of 173,800 officers. In May, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev put the figure at 152,000 kommersant.ru/doc/7328120?fr…
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@bencoates1 That's surprisingly, they're usually very picky about not breaking the law. (Veldkamp didn't say he particularly wanted to arrest Netanyahu, he just confirmed black letter law which is that he *has* to arrest Netanyahu under the Rome convention if he comes to NL.)
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A week ago, after the Amsterdam attacks, the Dutch government was bending over backwards to support Netanyahu. Now they say they’ll arrest him for war crimes if he comes to the country. Quite a turnaround.
nos.nl/l/2545366
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@AdamBienkov Bit surprising that Starmer didn't give the only legally permissible answer under the Rome convention and therefore UK law which is:
"sure, as long as he doesn't mind being arrested the moment his feet touch British ground"
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Asked if Netanyahu is still welcome in the UK, after an international arrest warrant was issued against him Keir Starmer's spokesman says Israel is a "key partner", says he has "regularly engaged with the Israeli PM" and "it's important we have dialog with Israel at all levels"
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@bencoates1 (in the version I read, Achahbar resigned largely because the way this was discussed in Cabinet involved a deal of straight-up racist talk)
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@bencoates1 My theory has always been that the Cabinet would collapse within months because putting policies aside, professionals like Schoof and Achahbar simply cannot co-exist socio-culturally in the same cabinet as PVV freaks for very long.
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After more than a week, I think it’s clear the response to what happened in Amsterdam was overblown
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Russian General: "Colonel, are the North Koreans here to join our meat assaults?"
Russian Colonel: "I'm afraid they're currently too busy assaulting their meat, General."
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Three minutes after arriving in Kursk:
A North Korean soldier muttering, "it can't possibly be that easy" as with trembling fingers he types the word "Boobs" into Google and becomes the hero of his entire regiment.
Gideon Rachman@gideonrachman
A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
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@flying_rodent Same. I remember my first year of middle school in England. On Nov 11 there was one very elderly WW1 veteran and several not-so elderly ww2 vets at assembly. There was a wreath at the memorial, everyone wore a poppy, 2 minutes silence with a bugle either side. Done for the year
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This would’ve been seen as *wildly* disrespectful when I was a kid, not least because it’s all so gaudily American.
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There were still a few WWI veterans knocking about when I was a kid, and I can imagine the reception this kind of bizarre behaviour would get. This stuff would’ve been considered incredibly crass and stupid as recently as the 80s and 90s.
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