Ioanvs
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Holy fucking shit they're threatening to blow up pipelines and oil is only up +1.5%.
All in.
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
They brag about the cards. Let's see: Supply Cards= Demand Cards SOH (partly played)+BEM(unplayed)+Pipelines(unplayed)= Inv Release (played)+Demand Destruction (partly played)+⏳More Price Adj (to come) Add summer vacation to the right unless they want to cancel it for the US!
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- If Iran controls passage through the strait of Hormuz the petrodollar system and gulf countries are done.
- Iran will soon develop a nuclear weapon if it hasn't one already. Israel will never accept this. There is no deal.
- Israel is already bombing Lebanon.
- Iran will bomb Gulf States and close Bab el Mamdeb Strait.
- Oil skyrockets to 150.
- EEUU atacks by ground and A. Lincon aircraft carrier sink.
- Oil skyrockets to 250.
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@MerlijnTrader Markets haven't priced in peace?? how much weed do you smoke?
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BREAKING:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran situation just changed overnight.
Trump cancelled peace talks Saturday.
Today he's reviewing a proposal to reopen Hormuz and end hostilities.
China told their citizens to evacuate Iran before this weekend.
Pentagon planned for 5 months of war.
Now a national security meeting.
With a proposal to end it all.
Markets haven't priced in peace.
They priced in war.
If this deal happens. Everything reprices today.

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Not true.
There will be a deal this weekend (at the latest).
Iran will declare the Strait "open" as it was last well.. you have to use the designated route, pay the toll and get approval from Iran.
Trump unfreeze 10s of billions in Iranian assets.
Israel will stop bombing Iran.
Iran will "promise" not to pursue nuclear weapons (same promise they have been making for 25 years)
Trump declares victory and moves on to Cuba.
this is my base case
Merlin Capital 🧙♂️@merlinscapital
BLOCKADE WILL STAY UNTIL IRAN SURRENDERS - HEGSETH
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Pakistan, through its efforts, has already achieved a breakthrough that few people have noticed.
The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz may remain but no one is returning to hostilities, thanks to Pakistan.
Ensuring that Trump agrees to an open-ended ceasefire allows all sides to give diplomacy a chance.
As pointed out before, apart from other differences, Iran and the US have a major difference on how to seek a permanent end to the war.
What I understand is that Iran's Foreign Minister, in a written response to US proposals, first wants to seek an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz.
Talks on nuclear and other issues would come later.
Trump, however, wants an all-in-one deal.
It is said that the US President will chair an important meeting on Monday to respond to Tehran's proposal.
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@Jake__Wujastyk But interestingly that buy volume is very low relative to other times. Perhaps I’m reading into it too much?
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$SPY $SPX $ES_F I am reading so much about the recent "volume" being extremely low on this recent move up and how it is "scary". It actually is completely normal.
Volume is almost always largest during capitulation events. Notice that anytime there is a local low within a trend, you can move down and see a large volume spike that coincides with it on the X axis. THIS is the large volume to note as it means that everyone "throws in the towel" at the same time (sells it all and goes to cash). Once price starts going back up (shown by green arrow), it is paired with a red arrow at the bottom of the chart showing volume actually declining from the original capitulation event volume spike.
You don't want everyone to throw in the towel (their capital) all at once when price is moving back up, because that means that there wouldn't be any buyers to keep the upside push going after a short period of time and the spike would be extremely aggressive. Instead slow, steady, upside action accompanied with light volume is what drives markets higher and different market participants come in at different times as their thesis' become active or trigger.

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It is becoming increasingly clear that a regional “coalition” is quietly taking shape to push for a durable settlement.
Trump’s 72-hour deadline today tells you everything.
He is not signalling war, he is signalling that he expects a framework to emerge within that window, one he will then present as a victory driven by his threat.
The playbook is obvious.
Let’s be equally clear about one thing:
Those who actually intend to strike don’t announce deadlines.
Iran, meanwhile, has shifted gears, engaging regional players and Russia diplomatically. That has strengthened its hand and given it the ability to shape the narrative around negotiations.
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A message for everyone shorting.
> Bear market rally’s dont make new all time highs
> Market is making all time highs
> Semis are making all time highs
> Dips have been extremely shallow for a month
> In late March market stopped reacting to bad news
This is strength. This is panic to buy
Not the other way around
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