John Yacek

On @Hedgeye earlier in the year @KeithMcCullough and I discussed the LOOMING 2027 EU re-alignment. - IMHO it will be the beginning of the EU breakup - (And that ultimately will be a very good thing)

To be clear, last Friday was a concentration unwind exacerbated by forced selling from leveraged funds into the close. Looking ahead, there is still a significant amount of systematic convexity built up in other areas of the market should downside momentum/ vol start to trend.

Absolute chaos at Teahupo’o… 😳

Today ended a 94-day streak without a 2% or greater decline in $SPX, and, per usual, it happened in spectacular fashion.

This is a search and destroy mission.

We're setting up for a meaningful MOC imbalance from levered ETF's today if this continues. The higher they climb, the harder they fall.

In 2014, while filming a movie, Jackie Chan discovered that a group of Mongolian locals knew every word to 'Rolling in the Deep' by heart... even though they didn’t speak English. The beautiful moment was never part of the script.

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Big one will be if CRSP fast tracks $SPCX. Thats’s what will actually impact your 401(k).

$SPCX could force $5.6B of day-one buying from QQQ and QQQM alone: The IPO filing points to 555.6mm shares at $135.00, or $75.0B of IPO value. Using the IPO shares as the free float input, the low-float 3x cap would put the NDX weighting value at $225.018B.Against the current NDX base, that maps to an estimated 0.985% weight, ranking ~25th in the index. For QQQ, with roughly $473.3B of AUM, that implies about $4.7B of $SPCX buying, or 34.5mm shares. QQQM adds another ~$968mm of estimated buying, or 7.2mm shares. Combined QQQ + QQQM demand would be about $5.6B, or 41.7mm shares, equal to 7.51% of the IPO shares available. That’s just on day one from two funds.Of course, this is subject to change. Actual demand will mostly depend on where $SPCX trades when Nasdaq evaluates it for inclusion, likely around its 7th trading day under the new fast entry rules.

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An absurd breadth profile today for $SPY internals. Nearly 28% of the index drag is coming from $AVGO and $MU, while the rest of the index is broadly positive. As of now, equal-weight $SPX is outperforming by ~60bps.

Stevie Ray Vaughan Playing A Gibson Flying V

“I wanna be a trillionaire… so frickin’ bad, buy all the things I never had” VOO crosses Elon territory… Some stats: 43% was due to asset appreciation, 57% from inflow — 62% of flow came from just the past three years @t1alpha

scott bessent is the funniest member of the cabinet and it's not even close

🚨 LMFAO!! Sec. Scott Bessent just threw Elizabeth Warren into RAGE MODE as he calmly dismantles her claims about President Trump and stock trading "Why don't we investigate many people on THIS COMMITTEE [for insider trading]?" "Why don't you GET YOUR HOUSE IN ORDER...LEAD by EXAMPLE. Have your fellow committee members, MOSTLY ON YOUR SIDE, do the same!" 🔥

BESSENT: "Sen. Wyden has slandered the Treasury building to cover up his son having an investment with Jeffrey Epstein." WYDEN: "Nobody is interested in the rambling of a capo in the most corrupt regime in American history." BESSENT: "Your son's largest investment position was Rick's Cabaret. Did your son and Epstein talk about poll dancing?

$VIX / $SPX beta factor now in the 7th percentile.

The K-Shaped is now appearing in crypto

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