Tier1 Alpha

🚨 U.S. National Debt just hit $39 trillion The last trillion was added in just 146 days. That’s $6.85 billion every single day. Or $79,282 every second. Interest costs now exceed $1T annually.

Systematic headwinds are building, with our equity CTA model now in full sell mode. In structurally weak periods, these larger directional flows are what you have to worry about.

@sheeesh_yall @NoelSmith Exactly, you could hear a pin drop.

@t1alpha @NoelSmith Looks like 35 contracts traded in march contract, nothing on April or May. 🫤

Kind of crazy variance futures don’t get more attention. @NoelSmith

"Skew is essentially telling us that the risk of ALL stocks moving lower in a coordinated fashion is significant" -Mike Green @profplum99

Steeper $SPX skew is driving higher $VIX sensitivity.

The Pension Protection Act, which essentially legalized automatic enrollment into 401(k)s, turns 20 this year. "In 2025, 79% of large Vanguard plans used automatic enrollment, compared with just 34% in 2013." - Vanguard

The eternal battle between breadth and weight continues.

@Jason5088292442 @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough 1 month

@t1alpha @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough By 1m is that minute or month?

The spread between $VIX and $SPX 1m realized vol, a broad proxy for the volatility risk premium, is now in the 99th percentile. Either $VIX is pricing in too much premium or realized vol is about to explode higher. Either way, spreads this wide rarely last for long.

@Do_Trading @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough My guess is it will meet somewhere in the middle.

@t1alpha @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough When VRP stretches this far, it usually reflects positioning rather than a clean read on forward volatility, dealers are often short convexity into these moves. If realized vol catches up, it tends to happen fast because liquidity thins out before the repricing.

@beatlesonbankin @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough That’s a great catch.

@t1alpha @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough just observation The vol smashing game unabated but y-day was uncharacteristic vix soared into the open, saw the midday beating and then soared into the close, not just to the day's high, or wk's high but 10 mo highs and tickling 30 last green candle like that was Apr 3rd

Today was the first time $SPX has closed more than 2% away from the 6900 strike in over 52 trading sessions.

BREAKING: Nonfarm Payrolls Fell By -92k (PREV. 126k, EST. 58k)

That was one of the best Real Conversations I've ever had. Angus Fletcher is phenomenal!

Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance checks to exiting employees” @business

@options_insight You've been on an absolute tear of dropping knowledge lately. Well done.

There have been studies showing that over any period under a decade, fundamentals are not just non-correlated with equity returns. They're often inversely correlated. Sit with that for a second. The reason is positioning. If everyone agrees on the fundamental picture, everyone's positioned for it. That consensus creates supply reflexively the other way. It's how pain trades are born. Not from people being wrong about the economy. From too many people being right about it at the same time. Price on any meaningful timeframe has almost nothing to do with value. It has everything to do with supply and demand. And supply and demand often happen for completely different reasons than fundamentals. Your Discounted Cash Flow doesn't tell you who will be buying or selling tomorrow. Positioning does.

@acrossthespread @dampedspring Thanks Weston. Duly noted.

@t1alpha @dampedspring As a fan of / get solid insights from you both, & although I don’t know him personally (like I know you personally), from my viewpoint he seems like a good dude. So- good for you for also being the good dude you always are/have been👍 …now get back to work😂

Yeesh, I'll own the awkward phrasing in the tweet. The math isn't difficult. I was just pointing out that the AUM is overwhelmingly on the long side. I blocked @dampedspring sometime last year. Every time he popped up in my feed, he was either belittling someone or swearing at them. He never did anything to me personally, I just didn't care for the negative attitude. Shockingly, how people act on X isn't always consistent with who they are in real life, so I'm sure he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Who knows.

Leveraged ETF market cap is now roughly $130B, with around $100B tied up in levered longs. That means the daily rebalance asymmetry is skewed toward buying on up days and selling on down days, which can drive a meaningful source of end-of-day flow when volatility is high.