Jack

96 posts

Jack

Jack

@Jack1145491

Crypto/stock investor, trying to escape the ratrace

Katılım Haziran 2024
41 Takip Edilen29 Takipçiler
Doctor Profit 🇨🇭
Doctor Profit 🇨🇭@DrProfitCrypto·
No one expected $80,000 weeks ago I was the only one who said 80k is coming Thanks for listening and taking the 71k long! I am aiming for 83-85k region as next target
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Jack
Jack@Jack1145491·
@OptimizedPort @cashflow_king94 Interesting graphic, however I think if you’re investing in blue chip companies with a proven track record you’ll generally be ok. Obviously any company can fail. But I would rather invest £1k in Google than the S&P500 personally.
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Optimized Portfolio | John Williamson, APMA®
@Jack1145491 @cashflow_king94 ...for about 1% of investors. That's the part the "concentration builds wealth" people forget. x.com/TaxAlphaInside…
Brent Sullivan@TaxAlphaInsider

Many companies fail, while a few dramatically outperform. The paper below gives us more evidence that diversification kinda rocks. But but but... "Diversification is where conviction goes to die!" That's fine. I'm grateful you have conviction in your ability to pick stocks. Thank you for keeping markets efficient. 🫡 But, Antti Petajisto (of Brooklyn Investment Group, now @NuveenInv) shows that missing out on the outperformers is the real cost of making a concentrated bet (and getting it wrong). But there's also the catastrophic risk of holding a concentrated position in a failing stock that nosedives when you need cash, or simply never recovers. If this kind of thing interests you, I'm pleased to say Antti's partner, and Brooklyn CEO/CIO Erkko Etula will be at my conference, Basis Northwest, talking about concentrated position risk and tax management on a panel hosted by @chou_shang. On the main stage, he'll be joined by Nuveen colleagues Jill Jensen and Katrina DiFiglia to discuss risk and tax management across private assets, as well as many other solutions, including tax-aware long/short. See you in Seattle in only 36 days...

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Cashflow King
Cashflow King@cashflow_king94·
Unpopular opinion: Most people would be better off with 5 stocks than 50
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Jack@Jack1145491·
@DrProfitCrypto Can’t see this happening. The AI boom will going to continue to drag the rest of the market with it.
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Doctor Profit 🇨🇭
Doctor Profit 🇨🇭@DrProfitCrypto·
Why the Stock Market Is Going to Crash: Part 1: What the 1973 Oil Crisis Teaches Us: The Big Sunday Report: Back in 1973, about 5–7% of the world's oil demand was cut off for roughly 5 months, and the consequences led to the worst crash in history since the Great Depression! Today, around 20% of the WORLD'S OIL DEMAND has been affected for 2 months, and there's no end in sight. This means the situation today is even worse than it was during the 1973 oil crisis, and yet most don't understand the pattern! This brings me to the question of how the $SPX (SP500) behaved then, and we need to compare it with now. In 1973, the #SPX crashed 20% as in October 1973 the Oil Embargo was announced. During that time, the S&P 500 was 7% away from its ATH, recovering from an earlier 17% correction, and the market was in strong euphoria believing in the next rally. Investors thought the worst was over, and out of the sudden the embargo hit the market and we saw a sharp drop of 20% that followed in October 1973. The same we saw in March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz was closed and the S&P 500 reacted with a 10% downside move. This is what I call the first shockwave, but what if I tell you that the real, and much worse downside move happened after the announcement of the end of the oil embargo was made ? The oil embargo officially ended on March 17, 1974. This is when the real crash began, and the S&P 500 crashed 40% within the next 6 months! This was the worst crash since the Great Depression, and only 2008 was worse. The crash didn't happen during the embargo. It happened after the embargo was lifted, when everyone assumed things were going back to normal. The damage to the economy, the inflation, the higher input costs, the broken consumer, had already been done, and the market understood the damage and we see it today as well, as the parallel today is direct. The S&P 500 is making new highs while an oil supply shock is unfolding. Investors are doing exactly what they did in 1973: assuming the issue will resolve and pricing in a soft landing. But once the economic damage becomes visible in earnings and consumer spending, the same delayed reaction is likely to play out, and this is exactly what was addressed by Jerome Powell in the most recent FOMC meeting! Inflation is rising again, the FED can't ease anymore! Part 2: The Private Credit and Banking Risk: There's a type of investment fund called a private credit fund. These funds lend money to large companies, working a lot like hedge funds. The problem is that they borrow huge amounts of money themselves to make bigger loans and bigger profits. This is called leverage, and it's a double edged sword. When things go well, profits are programmed, but when things go badly, losses are programmed too. The situation right now is alarming. Investors are pulling their money out at a record pace, with over $7 billion withdrawn from major private credit funds in late 2025. BlackRock has even blocked some investors from withdrawing money. Loan defaults are at record highs as well, with 5.8% of private credit loans in default as of January 2026, the highest level ever recorded! About 40% of the companies that borrowed from these funds are now burning more cash than they earn, and the stock market is starting to notice, with shares of big private equity and credit firms falling sharply. If these funds collapse, banks go down with them, because banks lent them much of the money in the first place. So what happens if banks fail? Since the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and the 2014 EU bank rescue rules, governments are no longer supposed to bail out failing banks with taxpayer money. Instead, they use something called a bail-in. They take money from depositors and bondholders and turn it into bank shares. The result is that bank stocks crash and ordinary people lose part of their savings. This is why physical gold and silver are the only real safe haven. I consider owning them a MUST. The Main Warning Signs The first and most important is oil. In 1973, oil first moved up, and the stock market crash came after the Arab nations reopened oil supply. The damage was already done. What we're seeing now in the S&P 500 looks like the final push higher before the expected crash. History is repeating itself. The second is the yield curve inversion. This happens when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates, which is a clear warning sign. It has come before every U.S. recession in the past 50+ years, usually 12 to 24 months in advance. Back in 2025, I wrote a full report pointing to June 2026 as the likely crash zone, and the report was written in September 2025 and can be found here: x.com/DrProfitCrypto… The third is insider selling at record speed. Company executives and big shareholders have been dumping their own stock at a pace never seen before, especially since August–September 2025. When insiders are selling this aggressively, it tells you everything you need to know and thats something I observe since many months! The fourth is extreme risk appetite, and right now it's at its highest point since 2021. In simple words, risk appetite means how much investors are willing to bet on risky things like stocks instead of keeping their money safe. Right now, investors are throwing money into risky assets like never before. According to EPFR fund flow data, risky assets have seen record net inflows exceeding safe assets by 220bn over the last 4 weeks, the strongest since the 2021 meme-stock peak. To put it simply, people are pouring much more money into stocks than into safe places, and the gap is the biggest we've seen in years. This also aligns with updates to S&P Global's Investment Manager Index risk appetite gauge and Goldman's proprietary RAI, both hitting multi-year highs. This is the same type of euphoria we saw right before the 2021 top, and history shows that when everyone is greedy and chasing the market at the same time, the top is usually very close and this is the moment when risk appetite is this extreme, it's a clear warning sign, and trust me, you dont want to be among the losers who bought the top! The 1929 Parallel: Why You Need to Study the Great Depression Study the Great Depression of 1929, and I can't repeat it often enough. Study it, you need to study 1929! You will notice many similarities. The people who owned physical gold and silver back then were the big winners. Land was sold for even one penny because there was no liquidity at all. Farmers had tons of wheat but there was no one able to buy it. The US President Herbert Hoover famously said right before the great depression, "Prosperity is just around the corner," talking about the stock market and its bullish movements and claiming that nothing could stop the upside move. Everyone in the US was invested in stocks back then, the same as today, as record amounts of retail investors are sitting on stocks currently, the highest amount of retails ever recorded. Now, a hundred years later, we have another president talking about the stock market like no one else. Trump is talking about being tired of winning, or calling it the best economy ever based on the stock market, and ignoring the real economy that is suffering and has no liquidity to breathe currently. I see tons of similarities, and I am scared to even speak it out, but my biggest concern is a repeat of the Great Depression. I am not a doomsday caller, but I am here to remind you that physical gold and silver are more important than ever, no matter what the price says. My Trade and My Targets Let me be clear about where I stand. I am not just talking, I am positioned. I have shorted the S&P 500 at 6400, 6700, 6900, and 7100, and my final order remains open in the 7400 region if the market gives us that opportunity. In my view, we are deep inside top territory, and I am placing my shorts right here, right now, for every single reason laid out above. The signs are everywhere. Spotting the top is not the hard part, anyone paying attention can see it. The hard part is pinpointing the exact target on the way down, because that depends entirely on one thing: will the FED print again? And the answer that history teached us is simple. The FED only starts to print once a crisis hits, and now lets ask the same for 2008, where the FED wasnt able to print more money, and the Lehman crisis and the 2008 crash started and how likely is it in the current time ? In 2008, the FED did not intervene to save Lehman Brothers. Everyone expected a rescue, everyone assumed the FED would step in like it did with Bear Stearns just months earlier. But the FED let Lehman fail, the bank went bankrupt, and the entire financial system nearly collapsed with it. That single decision changed everything. It triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it is the exact reason the bail-in laws I mentioned earlier even exist today. Dodd Frank in the US and the EU bank rescue rules were both born directly out of the chaos of 2008, designed so that taxpayers would never again foot the bill. Next time, depositors and bondholders pay, and this is where the real risk hits the ordinary person. In simple words, if your bank fails, the government will not save it with taxpayer money like in 2008. Instead, the bank takes a part of your savings, anything sitting in your account, and converts it into worthless bank shares of the failing bank. Your money is gone, replaced by stock in a bank that just collapsed. In the EU, deposits up to €100,000 are technically protected by deposit insurance, and in the U.S. up to $250,000 by the FDIC, but anything above that is fair game, and history has already shown us this is not theory. It happened in Cyprus in 2013, where depositors lost a huge chunk of their savings overnight, and this will let the fire of the crash expand. So for my targets, I see three realistic scenarios, and they all depend on the FED: Scenario 1: The FED panics and prints again. If inflation cools enough to give them room, they flood the system with liquidity, and the crash is contained to a sharp but limited drop. This is the most "comfortable" outcome for the market. Scenario 2: The FED is trapped by inflation and cannot print. With inflation rising again, as Powell himself just confirmed, the FED may have its hands tied. No money printing, no rescue, and the market bleeds out for months. This is the painful, drawn-out scenario. Scenario 3: A full 2008-style collapse. The FED lets something break, just like they let Lehman break, and the entire system cracks open. Bail-ins get activated, banks fall, savings get wiped, and the SP 500 sees a crash on the scale of 2008 or worse. This is a very real option, and I refuse to take it off the table. I am positioned for all three, and depends on the targets the probability that we are at top area is extreme high. The only question left is how deep the FED is willing to let this fall, and based on inflation, based on Powell's own words, and based on the political climate, I believe the risk of scenario 2 or 3 is far higher than the market is currently pricing in. The top is in, or it is extremely close. I am short, and I am staying short with an invalidation once the FED starts printing once again! The next weeks will be very important and many will miss out on real time updates and thats where premium is worth everything. It costs $59 / month and thats less than some of the trading fees you are paying! I cant repeat it more often but premium offers insights you are getting no-where else. Join here: whop.com/joined/drprofi…
Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 tweet media
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Steffan
Steffan@Steffan0xd·
@APompliano @PeterMallouk Easier said than done when most people are just trying to cover rent and don't have extra cash to gamble on the market.
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Anthony Pompliano 🌪
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano·
They should plaster this chart throughout hallways of American schools. Savers lose and investors win.
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Doctor Profit 🇨🇭
Doctor Profit 🇨🇭@DrProfitCrypto·
$BTC: At 60k I have been telling 79-85k is coming Everyone else was shorting at 60k instead! I bought spot at 68k and longed 71k instead! Tell me who was right again and again?
Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 tweet media
Doctor Profit 🇨🇭@DrProfitCrypto

#Bitcoin – What’s Next? The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Since September 2025, I have been sharing my outlook and expectations for Bitcoin and how things would unfold over the coming months. At the short entry of 115–125K, I first gave a target of 100K, which was reached just a few weeks after my prediction. After that, I clearly stated that a sideways move would follow before a drop to 60K. Back then, this was hard to believe, yet it played out exactly as expected a few weeks later. At 60K, I said we would enter a sideways range, with a box between 57K–87K. Bitcoin recently moved up to 76K, and just a few days later dropped sharply back to 68K. Is this the bullish trap I have been talking about? Yes, it is one of the traps in this region before continuation to the downside. My strategy is very simple. I sold the Bitcoin I bought two weeks ago in the 68K region and I am only holding my larger short from 115–125K. I am willing to add more shorts in the 79–84K region with x5 leverage, and these orders are already placed. We are in a big bear market scenario, not only for Bitcoin but also for the overall stock market. Back in September, I pointed out significant liquidity stress in the repo market, as well as the increasing RISKS on the Fed’s standing repo facility. In addition, we are seeing ongoing manipulation in silver and gold markets, where futures prices are becoming increasingly disconnected from physical supply, which continues to be drained. Oil prices are rising, aligning with the analysis I shared two months ago when I entered Chevron, currently one of the biggest winners from these developments. AI and data-related stocks are heavily overinvested and overbought. I shorted these sectors, and the positions were shared in premium back in November. Many of them are already down 30–40%, including stocks like PLTR, MSFT, and Coinbase. All my short positions are currently in profit. I am short Bitcoin, stocks (especially AI-focused), and indices in the UK, Germany, and Japan. What am I bullish on? Only a few assets: Chevron stock, physical metals, and Oil. I am also holding a long on oil, which I shared two weeks ago in premium at an entry of $84. That is my current portfolio positioning. I expect the bear market to dominate most assets while only a few selected ones remain strong. Bitcoin is currently in a weak position and lacks clear direction, which explains the ongoing sideways movement. However, the next major move is still likely to the downside. Market makers are attempting to push the price higher to capture liquidity above, before driving it lower. At the same time, based on current data, they appear more cautious due to the macro and geopolitical environment which is also for them a high risk to make any big moves for now. For this reason, I have slightly adjusted my short entry zone to 79–84K, where my orders are now placed. Until then, I continue holding my core short from 115–125K. A few days ago, I mentioned XRP. I entered a position, and it moved 16% higher shortly after. However, I took profits and publicly shared that I closed the trade with around 5% gain. The reason is simple, the risk-reward is no longer as attractive as it was a few weeks ago, and this with considering the potential for a broader Bitcoin move. This is also why I am no longer holding spot positions in Bitcoin. The next major downside move is only a matter of time. I am not ruling out another fake move before that happens, and if we do see it, I will use it to add further short positions, but overall we are heading to TARGET 3 which is showed on the chart. The FOMC last week gave us another great insight into where we are heading. The next rate cut is now expected in December 2026, much later than the market anticipated. I remember when I announced the last rate cut in December 2025, and people were saying we would see another one at the next FOMC meeting. They were wrong. Now watch the fear in the markets unfold, no rate cuts in place, while inflation is increasing based on the latest PPI and Core PPI data. Scary, right? Do you know that your left eye is connected to the right side of your brain, which is the center of emotions? Some people really need to become pirates to trade without emotions. And now is the time to have ZERO emotions at all. Market makers are playing with emotions and the mind , prepare for heavy manipulation ahead before the next major downside move. Liquidity stress is building, and a repeat of 2008 is getting closer. I didn’t call for a correction in September 2025, I called for a major crash, and that is exactly where we are heading. I am fully prepared and there are no buy orders between 57-60k, and only short orders at 79-84k in case market allows to visit. I cannot stress this enough, premium delivers the highest level of trading insight. All my steps, trades, and decisions are shared there in real time. Not only is premium always ahead of what gets posted on X, but it also includes deeper analysis, clearer explanations, and most importantly, real-time execution. Position sizing, profit-taking levels, and detailed breakdowns are all included. At $59 per month, it is a no-brainer, join here: whop.com/joined/drprofi…

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Jack
Jack@Jack1145491·
@cashflow_king94 I have also pivoted strategy. I now hold 12 stocks/commodities based around scarcity and that are set to benefit from the AI boom / buildout. Things like: Silver, Copper, Solar, Nvidia, MSTR (bitcoin within my ISA) etc. Feels good to have a concentrated port based on a thesis.
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Cashflow King
Cashflow King@cashflow_king94·
Updated portfolio allocations as of today. 9 stocks. One account. Here's where every pound sits. $AVGO 15.2% $NVDA 14.4% $MSFT 14.3% $LLY 14.1% $META 13.8% $MA 13.2% $CAT 7.5% $TSM 6.5% $COST 0.5% $LLY went from my smallest position to my 4th largest. Been loading up heavily while it's been sitting in my buy zone. The top 6 are all between 13-15%. Nicely balanced. No single stock dominating. $CAT and $TSM still have room to add on the next dip. $COST barely registers at 0.5% but it never hits my buy signal so I just wait. This is what a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio looks like. No filler. No padding. Every position is there for a reason. What does your portfolio breakdown look like?
Cashflow King tweet media
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Jack@Jack1145491·
@cashflow_king94 I’m starting to think the same way as you regarding growth stocks. However I still have some TSLD and AVGI, both are quite heavily down. Do you think it’s worth selling and locking in a loss in order to redeploy funds into growth stocks? Appreciate not financial advice of course
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Jack
Jack@Jack1145491·
@cashflow_king94 What do you do when a position goes over 15% through price appreciation?
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Cashflow King
Cashflow King@cashflow_king94·
$LLY is getting interesting again. Last time it dropped into my buy zone I loaded up. You can see it on the chart. Three separate buy signals hit and I added every time. Now it's approaching my buy zone again. Currently at $927. Getting closer to the levels where my system starts flashing green. When it drops in, I'll be adding. Aggressively. Until it hits my 15% portfolio ceiling. Right now $LLY is my smallest position at 7.7%. That means I've got room to nearly double my allocation when the signal fires. This is what having a system does for you. I'm not guessing. I'm not hoping. I'm just waiting. The trigger either fires or it doesn't. If it does, I buy. If it doesn't, I sit on my hands. GLP-1 drugs are a generational opportunity. Eli Lilly is the leader. The thesis hasn't changed. I just need the price to come to me. Patience is the hardest part of investing. But it's where all the money is made. What stock are you waiting to buy on a dip?
Cashflow King tweet media
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Jack@Jack1145491·
@OptionsBrit Great, thank. I am considering buying it. Will do my research!
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OptionsBrit🇬🇧Trades
OptionsBrit🇬🇧Trades@OptionsBrit·
@Jack1145491 I have $ONDS in my options account, just waiting for earnings before i decide to start selling covered calls on it. all the exciting news and potential figures. id rather play it safe :)
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OptionsBrit🇬🇧Trades
OptionsBrit🇬🇧Trades@OptionsBrit·
Dip buying in action. 🇬🇧 $SOFI ✅ $ONDS ✅ Both held in my Robinhood ISA. Both tax free growth from here. Macro is noisy. Conviction is not. Not financial advice. Just buying what I believe in. 📈 $SOFI $ONDS #UKInvesting #ISA #Robinhood
OptionsBrit🇬🇧Trades tweet mediaOptionsBrit🇬🇧Trades tweet media
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Jack retweetledi
Michael Saylor
Michael Saylor@saylor·
You know there’s a delay between the time we buy the Bitcoin and the time Bitcoin goes to the moon.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
Bitcoin is my safe word
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Jack@Jack1145491·
@freedombill3 Out of interest, were you up or down on these investments? I hold AVGI, TSLD, GOOO, CEPG, FEPG and am heavily down on all of them. This for me mentally makes it difficult to sell them… even if it’s the right thing to do.
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Freedom Bill 💸🏖️🏝️
Freedom Bill 💸🏖️🏝️@freedombill3·
I sold everything. After much research and reflection, last week, I sold 100% of my holdings in the high yield ETFs. Many of you asked why I would walk away from 20-50% yields. The Answer.... Total Return. I moved that capital into JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income $JEPQ. Why? It owns 67% in the underlying Nasdaq 100 and in turn owns the assets, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple. It writes call options to generate income, but it also participates in the growth. I would rather have a 9-10% yield that grows for 20 years than a 50% yield that eats itself in 3. This shift brings my portfolio into perfect alignment with my long-term goals. 87.5% Growth.... $EQQQ, $VUSA, $VHYL - Building the wealth. 12.5% Income.... $JEPQ - providing the cash flow to keep me motivated. A few days after making this change to my portfolio, I read a timely article from @cashflow_king94 which showed I didn't come to this conclusion alone. For all new investors out there, my portfolio is currently £355,000. You might think at this size, I have this whole investing thing completed. I don't. I am still learning, reading, and adapting every single week. The moment you think you know everything is the moment you stop growing. If you are new, you see a fund offering a 50% yield and you think you have found a cheat code. You haven't. High yields often come at the cost of your capital. Don't be afraid to change your mind when you get new information. I did. My portfolio is stronger for it. I encourage all investors new and seasoned to read this. It will change your perspective on yield vs stability and how you view income investing. 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Cashflow King@cashflow_king94

x.com/i/article/2022…

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Jack@Jack1145491·
Bought 80 shares of $HOOD at $78 and have a limit order sat at $70 for another 20 shares. Hoping this is filled and I can then write covered calls on the stock.
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Jack
Jack@Jack1145491·
Just set laddered limit orders on $SOFI at $19 (buy 40 shares), $18.60 (buy 30 shares) and $18 (buy 30 shares). Hoping to get all filled and then sell covered calls on them.
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Jack
Jack@Jack1145491·
Coinbase at the 200 week EMA. I know sentiment is fearful right now, but if you have long term conviction, this is an interesting spot to buy imho
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Jack@Jack1145491·
@cashflow_king94 I’d be tempted to take some profits and move them into your ‘wheel account’
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Cashflow King
Cashflow King@cashflow_king94·
Up 94% on my silver position. $5.3K in → now worth $10,287. Do I sell half to get my cost basis back and let the rest ride "risk-free"? Or let the full position run? Genuinely torn. What would you do?
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Freedom Bill 💸🏖️🏝️
Freedom Bill 💸🏖️🏝️@freedombill3·
The mindset shift that changed everything for me was.... Stop looking at prices in Pounds. Start looking at them in Hours. If you take home £15 an hour, that £45 Friday night takeaway isn't just £45. It is 3 hours of your life. Ask yourself.... Is this pizza worth sitting in that meeting for 3 hours? Sometimes, the answer is yes. But usually, the answer is no. When you start paying for things with your time, you naturally start spending less. You aren't being cheap. You are just valuing your freedom more than the stuff.
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Jack@Jack1145491·
@benjamincowen I’ve just watched @Investanswers latest video in which he suggests that this company is unsustainable and won’t be around in the long term. I have now switched from Chat GPT to Grok
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