Dee-construction

ผมว่าคนถือ optical name สาย datacenter อยู่ในตำแหน่งที่น่าสนใจกว่าที่คิดนะ เพราะ supply chain ของ LEO satellite ของ $AMZN มันก็ใช้ของชิ้นเดียวกับที่ทำ datacenter อยู่แล้ว เลเซอร์ที่ยิงข้ามดาวเทียม + receiver ที่รับสัญญาณกลับ ชิ้นส่วนข้างใน (InP laser, coherent receiver) คือสายการผลิตเดียวกันที่ $COHR กับ $LITE ส่งให้ hyperscaler ทำ datacenter อยู่ตอนนี้เลย ไม่ใช่ของใหม่ที่ต้องสร้าง line ใหม่ ไม่ใช่ของที่ต้อง qualify ใหม่ แปลว่าตอนตัดสินใจว่าจะ allocate capacity ไปให้ใครก่อน เขามีลูกค้า 2 รอบใช้ของชิ้นเดียวกัน คือ datacenter scale-out รอบนี้ที่ตึงอยู่แล้ว และ LEO production cycle ที่กำลังเริ่ม ของน่าคิดคือ ถ้าคุณถือ $COHR หรือ $LITE ก็น่าจะอยู่ในธีม datacenter optics อยู่แล้ว แต่ตอนทำ thesis รอบแรกได้นับ LEO เข้ามาในสมการ pricing power ด้วยปะ? ปล. กูไม่มี 55555555

Natasha at JPM is publishing some bangers. Good shit Natasha. 👏

JP Morgan on AI data center spending. Eye-popping projections: "Data center capex among the top 4 U.S. cloud service providers continues to trend higher for 2026 following the last update, as the industry continues to see investments in AI and related infrastructure accelerating, driving another upward revision to the outlook – from +52% to +63% growth in 2026 – with robust double-digit growth increases evident across all U.S. hyperscalers. On a dollar basis, the growth implies a significant increase of more than +$200 bn of additional data center capex in 2026, the largest annual step-up to date, surpassing the record set in 2025. Importantly, we are establishing our forecast for data center capex from Top 4 U.S. cloud service providers in 2027 to expand at a robust pace of 40% – which, although implying a moderation in the growth rate, translates into a new record of $210 bn+ increase in spending, already surpassing the robust $200 bn+ annual step-up we are forecasting in 2026."

Deutsche Bank confirms The Big Reset thesis

Looks like Jeff Pu is on Twitter now One of the best in the game

Goldman Research Oil Analyst: How Fast Can Gulf Production Recover After Reopening? gspublishing.com/content/resear…

Read every word. This is the best, clearest summary I have read.

Solar met 75% of global electricity demand growth in 2025. Clean power covered all new demand, so fossil generation didn’t rise for the first time since 2020. Solar electricity is on track to become by far the biggest source of power.

Central banks are sitting on massive stockpiles of gold after years of record purchases: Global central banks now hold ~38,666 tons of gold, reflecting ~17% of all gold ever mined. Still, the largest portion of gold remains in private hands, with ~97,645 tons held as jewelry, or ~43% of the total. Investment-related holdings, including bars, coins, and ETFs are ~50,978 tons, making up 23% of the total. The remaining ~32,602 tons, or 14%, fall into other categories, such as industrial use and private reserves. Central banks are now major players in the global gold market.

Shut-ins are ugly: once in place, the ability to restart production depends greatly on overall viability of infrastructure. If old and worn out, it could lead to permanent halt, requiring billions in new capex to renew infra and resume pumping. That's what Trump is going after

$TSM | TSMC Q1’26 Earnings Highlights 🔹 Revenue: $35.90B (Est. $35.5B) 🟢; +40.6% YoY, +6.4% QoQ 🔹 Net Profit: $18.1B (Est. $17.0B) 🟢; +58.3% YoY 🔹 Gross Margin: 66.2% (Est. 64.5%) 🟢 🔹 Operating Margin: 58.1%; +9.6 pts YoY 🔹 Net Profit Margin: 50.5% 🔹 CapEx: $11.10B; +10% YoY 🔹 Wafer ASP: $7396; +10% YoY 🔹 EPS: $3.49 per ADR Segment Performance: 🔹 HPC: 61% of net revenue; +20% QoQ 🔹 Smartphone: 26% of net revenue; -11% QoQ 🔹 IoT: 6% of net revenue; +12% QoQ 🔹 Automotive: 4% of net revenue; -7% QoQ Other Metrics: 🔹 3nm: 25% of wafer revenue 🔹 5nm: 36% of wafer revenue 🔹 7nm: 13% of wafer revenue 🔹 Advanced technologies (7nm and below): 74% of wafer revenue 🔹 Wafer Shipments: 4,174K 12”-eq.; +28.1% YoY; +5.4% QoQ 🔹 North America: 76% of total net revenue Capital Return: 🔹 Dividend: NT$6.00 cash dividend for Q4’25

BofA's private credit slide: reveals $20BN in private credit exposure, 70-75% advance rates on Private Credit/BSL; Lending to BDCs < $2BN (54% not subject to redemption) with 1.5x min asset coverage rate, 4Yr avg until maturity

JPM on oil #oott #iran

“Brazil: the new gold” - BofA Acho que a última vez que saiu algo parecido com isso foi em 1970s e em 2000s… @jlbraga @tropicalvalue

JPM's MIchael Cembalest has a new short note out about Claude Mythos. privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/o/eotm/…

The market doesn't seem to understand just how bad it is: only a fraction of the projected AI capex will actually be spent if these bottlenecks aren't fixed. And CapEx is all that is holding up earnings growth

The semiconductor market could double by 2030 More charts: a16z.news/p/charts-of-th…

JPM's list of energy infrastructure that's been damaged or disrupted from the conflict in the Middle East aka -- "shit that's been hit"

lol

JPM