Astronomer@astronomer_zero
$BTC
Full analysis, plan and why it's not worth to be overly bearish, nor overly bullish either
Local lows (75.3k) are unsafe, but I don't expect a deep bear market.
Good morning.
As you all know, my bullish bias established in the 80-85k range, where I expected the range to reach 95k and especially 112k, has just been invalidated. It held 11 weeks, we got a 20% move, got 95k move. From it, had a few wins (8), but also 2 losses I took myself (and 3 suggested trades), so let's count it as 3.
Two losses defly from being too confident in 112k from the 80-85k range. Still confident in that level, but not from a trading perspective worth mentioning.
So 3 losses, 8 wins certainly not ideal and below my standards/usual record, I made some clear mistakes as well as no readiness for unclear weekend-macro events etc.
I certainly expected this bias to hold for longer and price going higher, but ah well.
About my PnL throughout this range, it started out really well, of course as many know, but then ended up giving a large amount of it back unfortunately.
Also wish I sold a lot more of my spot positions at 125k, as you know only posted to sell a tiny amount at 125k, same for $ETH at 5k. And of course, the first compounds of spot at 84k we aimed to sell at 112k, I also still hold and are below entry (for now).
Plan next
During times like this, draw boarding needs to be heavier as plan didn't work out. So I'm exactly sharing here what my plan is next, what I will do with my positions (action = key), and what type of trades (long or short) I am looking for as well as where, giving a deep summary and comments on thought process (which is key).
As you know, I like to be thorough, one line doesn't define a trade, only a thorough system does especially now after taking some losses. And only the thorough reader gets access to my full plan.
Top to bottom
On big drawboarding sessions, always going from top to bottom (high timeframe then to lower timeframe).
On the very high cyclical timeframe, I already expressed how, if my bias would fail and we close below 81k (not yet done but let's expect it for now), it's going somewhat lower, but it's not going to be a deep bear market.
I drew the next purple POI (as per usual, purple weekly POI = similar style to every weekly low I called in the past) where I expect price to at least put in a serious countertrend rally from. To 112k? I'll get to that in later posts, not relevant right now.
But it will be a "bottom" worth buying long timeframe on local confirmations
The purple POI is quite a way below us but it indeed is not a classic -80% bear market, only 50% off the all time high. Another reason why I wasn't all too bearish high timeframe as it wasn't as important. I'm still wrong of course but as long as longs are exited, it's all fine.
This worst case (but now turning likely) case of scenario is what I quietly once thought about would be the worst if I was wrong and we topped 125k, so here it is, the devils verdict I didn't but any weight on.
I don't guarantee it yet, like I said, it's not entirely clear where I think the market will go next, so very much an if this, then that type of post here, with a worst case scenario (purple) in mind, but key to have for our long term (spot BTC, alts on confirmation only) thoughts.
Moving down a timeframe (H6/H12, where my edge is focused and where I trade actively),
We have weekend lows, as well as favourable cyclical timing for lower (cycle not done yet, more on that later).
To our disadvantage unfortunately, execution was bad on that , but level worked very well as the one pivot deciding which way the 80-85k value area would break, the value area is still the same so I still have it on the chart.
We also still have the 90.8k key level we pointed out which still held itself very strongly.
To our disadvantage unfortunately, execution was bad on that as you know, but level worked very well as the one pivot deciding which way the 80-85k value area would break, the value area is still the same so I still have it on the chart.
My actions
So, actions follow naturally from plan here, giving both spot and trade actions
Positional actions (spot multi-day/weekly timeframe)
Since my bullish bias is invalidated, I am naturally no longer actively looking for longs. But also because I don't expect a deep bear market, I am not selling any spot here, I am in 80% in here, avg entry 34k, which used to be 21.5k (I'm sure many remember this post), but due to the recent ads at 84k 11 weeks ago, has gone up of course..
That's still a comfy entry, if you have a similar entry (I assume the minority I only had about 5k followers or so back at our $BTC 21.5k call. So I can already hear you: "what if I only bought 84k spot and I didn't have any before?"
In that case, if you are heavily allocated, I would try to sell some (half) right now and especially getting closer to 90.8k (gradual but aggressive selling)
I don't think selling all makes sense, given my expectations of not receiving much worse than a 50% drawdown at worst, and 84k already being down 30% from ath, are still decent entries.
But it's good to keep a large portion open for the purple below to correct overall entry and position better for the next bull run.
Swing trade actions (futures)
Per last $BTC post, no longer exposed in perps, and bullish bias invalidated. I am not overly bearish as is clear from the chart, but shifted neutral. That means looking for a range for me to establish that neutral range and get back to trading it as well.
Again not entirely clear where the range will form yet. But happy to trade it as we go. Not from the long side for now, but only from the short side, as I indeed see weekend lows get cleared and they also are defined weak on the TPO.
But I'm not shorting from right here, rather closer to 90.8k (our key pivot/reclaim) for better RR as well as closing CME gap first i.e. 84k, only then targeting weekend lows.
What if we go full moon (after taking weekend lows)?
It's always possible, and doing so before hitting purple is of course also possible. But I don't see it likely at all before hitting weekend lows first, and even after, we very likely clear out the Mar-May lows first, and that already puts us close to purple, which should be deemed a magnet on proximity for demand and spread manipulation reasons.
If it does happen though, I will gladly sell spot at 112k, the still existing magnet, but then expect a large downswing which I will look to short for a large move down.
So in short, only looking for shorts at the moment. $BTC trends (down in this case) can extend, there still is money there, so that's what I look to grab, whilst keeping in mind high timeframe the bottom is likely far closer than many think (still going somewhat against the sentiment of this cycle playing out like 2022 and this range leading us all the way to 30k).
Don't think so, likely bottoming much higher, but not yet and closer to the middle of the year.
Trade entries will be shared live as always (which is key), and I always look to confirm with local order flow and will comment on it.
Summary;TLDR
In short, BTC broke my bullish bias, which I didn't deem likely, but here it is.
This means I am not bullish for a while.
I am not overly bearish either high timeframe as just expressed as I don't see lower than 60k, which isn't worth being bearish for, can't make much from selling spot in full and buying back lower, that's too risky.
Instead just looking to swing trade, with taking a short if we hit CME close first, targeting weekend lows.
If weekend lows are hit first, I will not be looking to long, at least not with heavy confirmation first.
Going full moon is also possible right after clearing weekend lows, but I don't see that likely at all here after bullish bias invalidation.
That is my plan for now, plus actions. Backed by price action, range theory, cyclical analysis, liquidity arrangement and my own core edge.
So all-in-all, not too bad to hold spot through, which is why I am holding it.
Key is to get in the right trades, and up the win rate again from the recent 8/11 wins (=72%) without forcing it.
Final disclaimers
I never guarantee 100% win rate. But I do always aim making (very good) money if risk managed well.
I do know it's joyful going all in because you found me not missing for a long period on trades in a recent time right after you found me such as some dm's.
But do risk manage, a good start is taking the same size on every trade. Yes, some of those dm's did proceed of people being liquidated because of my last 2/3 trades. But then I asked what size they took and it was 4 times higher than the wins I posted as they gained confidence in my streak. Not logical as most trades were exited before even hitting -1R and not held in long drawdown. Always same size (scaled to timeframe is the healthiest check.
Enjoy the analysis, plan and comments on risk management.
