Jae Oh

Claims that the #ACA invented the vertical integration problem are wrong. x.com/i/grok/share/s…

Let's convene .@perplexity council, shall we? No way a casual fan (like me) will get it. Comprehensive Analysis High-Confidence Findings All three models independently converged on the same core diagnosis: every proposal creates a new "optimal losing tier" rather than removing the incentive to lose. The 2019 reform — which flattened the top odds from 25% to 14% — is the cleanest historical proof of this dynamic. It was explicitly designed to make being the absolute worst team irrational, yet the result was a wider tanking band, not a narrower one. With roughly a third of the league already in some form of intentional losing in 2026 (and the Jazz and Pacers already fined), the context for this reform effort is a tanking crisis, not a modest correction. The models are unanimous that Proposal 3's 5×5 structure is the most manipulable. The reason is intuitive: concentrating equal elite odds into exactly five slots creates the sharpest possible binary. Being the 5th-worst team and the 6th-worst team produce radically different outcomes — equal odds at the #1 pick vs. a secondary lottery with no floor protection. That cliff will attract far more aggressive race-to-the-bottom behavior than any of the current thresholds, because the prize is discrete and the path to it is simple. Every team projected to finish 6th-through-10th worst has a crystal-clear instruction: lose more. Areas of Divergence The sharpest disagreement is over whether Proposal 1 or Proposal 2 is the lesser evil. Claude Opus argued Proposal 2 is marginally more resistant because the two-year averaging dilutes single-season tanking — you can't collapse in one year and immediately reap full lottery benefit. GPT-5.4 countered that Proposal 2 is actually more sophisticated to game (it becomes a multi-year portfolio problem for front offices) and that Proposal 1, by spreading incentives across a broader band, at least reduces the sharpness of any single cutoff. Neither model is clearly wrong — they're weighting different risks. Claude is worried about single-season visible tanking; GPT is worried about quiet, front-office-level multi-year manipulation that's harder to fine or punish. The win floor number also diverged — Claude and GPT used 25 wins, Gemini used 20 wins. Given that these proposals are described as being in modification before a May vote, the exact floor hasn't been finalized, and both figures appear in different reports of the same proposals. This is a live variable, and it matters enormously: a 25-win floor affects roughly 5-8 teams in a typical season; a 20-win floor would affect only 1-3 historically bad teams, making it nearly toothless. The most interesting disagreement is over the 10-win floor in Proposal 3. Claude did the historical work and identified that the 2015-16 76ers — the most famously intentional tank in modern NBA history — won exactly 10 games. Setting the floor at the worst record in league history makes it a decoration, not a constraint. GPT and Gemini didn't explore this, which means readers relying only on those reports might think the floor provides meaningful protection when it almost certainly does not. Unique Insights Worth Noting Claude's finding about expansion team vulnerability deserves more attention than it received. The NBA is actively pursuing expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas, and a two-year-record system would structurally disadvantage any new franchise entering without a two-season history. If an expansion team is weak in year one, it gets full lottery value; if Proposal 2 is adopted, that logic breaks down without specific accommodation. The league would need expansion carveouts, which adds complexity and new gaming opportunities (e.g., teams strategically trading players to expansion franchises to influence their records). GPT's use of live 2026 standings data is the most immediately actionable insight. The reform proposals are not abstract — specific teams sitting at seeds 7-10 right now are in exactly the zones where these incentives would bite. Phoenix, the Clippers, Portland, and Golden State in the West; Philadelphia, Orlando, Charlotte, and Miami in the East — all of them would do rational expected-value math under any of these proposals. Some of those franchises would choose the lottery over a play-in entry. Recommendations No proposal is manipulation-proof, but if forced to rank them: Proposal 1 creates the widest tanking band but the least intense single cutoff; Proposal 2 is the most sophisticated to game but the hardest to do so visibly (meaning the NBA's optics improve even if the incentive problem doesn't); Proposal 3 is the most dangerous and would almost certainly produce uglier basketball than the current system in any strong draft year. Any version the league adopts needs to be paired with structural reforms the proposals don't address: eliminating or restructuring pick protections (which create independent record-threshold incentives), closing the medical designation loophole, and building meaningful downside consequences for teams whose roster construction patterns suggest strategic losing rather than genuine rebuilding.

The NBA presented three comprehensive anti-tanking concepts to its Board of Governors on Wednesday, with modifications expected to each before a formal vote in May, per ESPN sources. 1. 18 teams in draft lottery (seeds 7-15 in each conference) – flattened odds, with bottom 10 teams having an 8% chance, the remaining 20% odds distributed in decreasing order for 11 through 18, and and a lottery drawing for all 18 picks. 2) 22 teams in lottery using 2-year record (seeds 7-15, plus the four playoff first round exits in both conferences). Lottery teams would reach a minimum win total floor in each season, such as 25 wins. If a team falls short of the floor, it gets slotted to meet the floor. Top 4 drawn as part of lottery, as is currently. 3) 18 teams in a "5 by 5" lottery – bottom 5 teams have equal odds for the top pick, with lottery formed for picks 1-5. Bottom 5 teams have a floor at 10; those that fall out of top 5 get sorted in a separate drawing.

@depression2019 You misspelled "intentionally with popular majority"

Guys did we accidentally elect a complete retard

@clintonyates What a scrappy day.

that's showbiz, kiddos. happy Friday.

@FinanceLancelot *which

BREAKING: Trump says the U.S. and Iran have had "Very good and productive conversations." He has ordered the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for 5 days as meetings continue.

@thatstarwarsgrl ...and we have not even begun to inject race, this was gender, only.

@thatstarwarsgrl Ye Olde Double Standard alive and well. woman = not classy man = standing up for himself the silver haired lady didn't reprimand the friend/bodyguard? Silent agreement with Ye Olde Double Standard.

You know it is possible to respond and still be classy. This isn’t it 😬

@carlquintanilla This only matters if facts do

Candidate for US Senate: #MNsen

@awfulannouncing Sometimes the other person is younger and smarter and better, to call her insufferable and unlistenable is a v strange combo of strange, infuriating, and pathetic. Odd soup Boomer cooked up.

"She’s a very attractive woman and she’s extremely bright, she went to Stanford. But if you listen to her post participation interviews, she’s insufferable" - Boomer Esiason on Eileen Gu

@LevAronian @netflix @GMJuditPolgar She is indeed great. Serena might have her hand up, tho.

I just watched an absolutely brilliant documentary “ Queen of Chess” on @netflix about the greatest female athlete ever @GMJuditPolgar . It’s a story of an impossible dream of parents Laszlo and Klara and their brilliant children in a time when misogyny and government control was predominant. Part of a movie is much about that game against Kasparov in Linares 1994. I feel that it did change the trajectory for Judit because when your idol does something bad and then does not apologize and even stops talking to you it becomes a trauma that follows you around for a long time. I am in awe of Judit because the way she managed to face all the pressure and unfairness but remain beautiful , kind and resilient is incredible. Judit, you did not become a world champion, but you are one of the greatest women who ever lived!

@SenWarren Vertical integration has crossed multiple administrations, this is a documented, known fact. You have had a front row view of the entirety, so please do not swaddle yourself, today, in sanctimony.

The nation’s biggest health care companies own: - Your pharmacy - Your doctor - Your insurance company - The middleman between your insurance company and pharmacy And they charge you at every turn. That's why today, I introduced a bipartisan bill to Break Up Big Medicine.

@AndrewYang Ya.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that AI is going to kick millions of knowledge workers to the curb and our political class won’t do a damn thing while our way of life gets changed forever.

.@Replit Anyone see a problem with this???

Gotta be the over. #SuperBowlLX

@AdamSchefter If the rules don't capture the obvious, then something is wrong with the rules. This entirety is silly.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame will consider making changes to the voting panel and process of choosing Hall of Famers after a year when Bill Belichick’s omission from the 2026 class generated outrage. espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…

Jesus, it’s really flown under the radar that the NBC newscaster whose Mom was abducted & held for ransom not long after the release of the most recent tranche of Epstein Files conducted the 1st televised interview w/ Virginia Giuffre & 5 other Epstein victims in 2019 👀

@Norma5387953815 i dont think that only .1% succeed....

99.9% will fail..!! Tell me the number that is bigger than this..??

@DeItaone Took 13 months for the first interesting, workable idea. But here we are, devil in details obv.

BUILDERS PUSH ‘TRUMP HOMES’ TO ADD 1 MILLION HOUSES Homebuilders, including Lennar and Taylor Morrison, are proposing a “Trump Homes” program to tackle U.S. housing affordability. The plan would let private investors rent entry-level homes to tenants, with rent credited toward a down payment after three years. If widely adopted, the program could deliver up to 1 million homes—over $250 billion in housing—but implementation is complex and White House support is uncertain. The effort aims to boost homeownership while giving Trump a signature housing initiative ahead of elections.

@TheRewatchables "How does Van Lathan get out of this" should now be a permanent entry into every .@TheRewatchables episode. Every. No exceptions. srlsy gold .@VanLathan 😂

'Wild Things': The erotic thriller for the MTV generation

@1RustyMac @mcuban x.com/i/status/19901…

Short answer: because wholesalers sit in the “plumbing layer” of healthcare, and plumbing is invisible until it bursts. Longer answer below—your instincts here are sharp, and most debates skip exactly the layer you’re pointing at. It’s not bad until things start smelling like sh*t, and I think we are there now.

Why do the big drug distributors seem to get a pass when it comes to healthcare cost dysfunction ? The fact that pharmaceutical wholesalers buy at what is effectively retail price is the foundation of pharmacy pricing dysfunction The only industry I know that buys at retail price. As a result 1. Indy pharmacies pay more cash out of pocket then pray they get reimbursed a fair amount. 2. Patients pay this price, full retail, during their deductible phase and a percentage of this inflated number for coinsurance 3. PBMs make a killing because they charge employers, manufacturers and patients fees and apply rebates as a percentage of WAC. 4. You don’t want to look at how this works for specialty drugs. It’s so profitable that these wholesalers are buying clinics to keep the business under their control. 5. This is the flu in the ointment in DTC. Pharm to table ? More like dollars to expensive middlemen charging a fortune that keeps the DTC prices higher than they need be. Fortunately some some manufacturers are realizing that consignment is a better supply chain model than what is currently happening 6. If brand manufacturers went completely to consignment for all brand and specialty drugs, the above might have to come to reality. Or If they went to all net pricing then: Pharmacies would have more cash and less reimbursement risk. Patients would pay far less during the deductible phase, and less in coinsurance and more Spread pricing would be less of a problem Etc. Can someone explain to me why the big wholesalers get a pass when evaluating why healthcare costs are so horrific ?

I would love to say that people aren't petty. oops.