Jake Jares

333 posts

Jake Jares

Jake Jares

@JakeJares

Assistant Prof of Political Science @TAMU. US political economy & ag policy. Trying to follow Jesus, work in progress.

Katılım Temmuz 2018
2K Takip Edilen571 Takipçiler
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Jake Jares
Jake Jares@JakeJares·
Thrilled my paper with @namalhotra is out at @apsrjournal! Have you always been captivated by the impacts of trade policy on political behavior, applications of causal machine learning, and shocks to soybean prices? Ok well regardless this is still the paper for you! A thread 🧵
American Political Science Review@apsrjournal

Just published on APSR First View: “Policy Impact and Voter Mobilization: Evidence from Farmers’ Trade War Experiences”, by Jake Alton Jares and Neil Malhotra. cambridge.org/core/journals/…

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Hanno Hilbig
Hanno Hilbig@hannohilbig·
Update on my benchmark of local vs. commercial LLMs for text classification, focusing on political science applications. I compared 5 local open-weight models with 4 API models on 34 coding tasks (~147k predictions). Tasks include tweets, news, survey responses, policy texts, etc The best local LLMs are often close and sometimes perform better. Local models match or exceed API on 9/34 tasks. The average API advantage is pretty small, at 0.015 F1.
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Jon Green
Jon Green@_Jon_Green·
new WP (w/ Nick Davis): we use the case of Christian nationalism to make a broader point about "niche ideologies" in mass opinion research, and why you shouldn't scale them the same way you'd scale more general attitudes
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Jake Jares
Jake Jares@JakeJares·
@CesarChavezP29 Also, the Atkinson-Stiglitz theorem is actually important and unusually policy relevant (at least by the standards of theory)!
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Cesar Chavez
Cesar Chavez@CesarChavezP29·
Stiglitz is a true master of doing economics. You may disagree with his politics, but his scientific contributions are foundational: information asymmetries (Nobel 2001, with Akerlof and Spence), efficiency wages, screening models, and the Greenwald-Stiglitz theorems on incomplete markets. Modern economics theory is unthinkable without them.
Total NIMBY Death@BarneyFlames

Why does anyone care about Stiglitz ? Explain without jargon ? he seems like a massive midwit leftist who's just wrong about everything

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Eashwar Nagaraj
Eashwar Nagaraj@eashwarnagaraj·
🚨Early version of my JMP! 🚨 To what extent is the contact between corporate lobbyists and federal government officials publicly disclosed? In other words, how big is the market for "shadow lobbying"? The Lobbying Disclosure Act mandates quarterly disclosure of lobbying "contacts" subject to many caveats. Watchdogs have long complained about lacunae in the LDA, but there is little evidence of the size of shadow lobbying market. In my JMP, I use 4.5 trillion pings from 179 million smartphones spatially merged to building shapefiles and observe movement between lobbyists' offices, corporate headquarter buildings, and the federal government in Washington DC. See below: movement of lobbyists from corporate HQs to federal government buildings:
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Jake Jares
Jake Jares@JakeJares·
@eashwarnagaraj Impressive and important work. It's rare to have this level of measurement innovation in lobbying research
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Jake Jares
Jake Jares@JakeJares·
@jodiecongirl Maybe their intended readership is the global population of newborns
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Megan Stevenson
Megan Stevenson@MeganTStevenson·
Am I the only social scientist that thinks the marginal returns to social science research are pretty low? I mean, I enjoy it & think it's interesting. But I don't think it’s improving the world much. Imo society oversupplies social science and undersupplies medical research.
Chris Blattman@cblatts

Some of us just dodged the pissing match about randomized trials versus macro development because we believe the marginal returns to research in both areas are pretty high

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Shiro Kuriwaki
Shiro Kuriwaki@shirokuriwaki·
Our paper on how Democrats and Republicans vote on state/local referendums, nonpartisan offices, and partisan elections is in the latest issue of the American Political Science Review. Feel free to contact us if you're interested in any aspect of this cast vote record data.
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Shiro Kuriwaki@shirokuriwaki

How partisan is voting in US local elections? Our new preprint covering everything from state legislature down to hundreds of school board and local referendums: osf.io/preprints/osf/…

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Trent Ollerenshaw
Trent Ollerenshaw@Trent_Oll·
Now that the semester has wrapped up, I’m excited to share that I’ll be joining @psupolisci at Penn State this fall as an Assistant Professor. Grateful to everyone at UH and my Texas network for a wonderful two years, and I’m looking forward to this next chapter in Pennsylvania!
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Jake Jares
Jake Jares@JakeJares·
@pete_enns @SociologicalSci @YouTube Love it. I had my PhD students read your full debate with Gilens and weigh in for my American Public Policy seminar last semester. Looking forward to adding this to the mix!
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Peter Hull
Peter Hull@instrumenthull·
So, this is actually a common mistake! Frisch-Waugh-Lovell works by residualizing on the *right* (i.e. the x-axis), not only on the left. In this case you'd only recover the regression relationship by residualizing the HHI measure (with or without residualizing the rebellious activity measure) I wrote a note about this a few years ago (link below)
Vincent Geloso@VincentGeloso

My graduate student Patrick Crawford introduced me to "partial residual plots" as a tool for showing relationships. Its so simple in elegance. The partial residual plot below shows the conditional relationship between newspaper competition and rebellion after controlling for everything else. On the x-axis is market concentration (HHI: higher = fewer newspapers), and on the y-axis is the residualized level of rebellious activity. Basically, the entire logic of the graph is for visualization. The regression has already controlled for other variables. What remains is the variation in rebellion intensity (depvar) attributable to the independent variable of interest. "Centered" just means both axes are normalized so that 0 corresponds to the sample mean. Positive values imply more rebellion than average (conditional on controls) (and vice-versa). Now, its not exactly a new estimation method per se. But it does allow for a nice visualization of results that I had not seen and may even allow you to play with different functional forms with the residuals. I know we should not care about "does it look cute" but I disagree with that sort of. I mean, at one point, we have to convince and convincing is really about cutting on inputs needed to (honestly) push a person from disbelief to acquiescence. That graph below is cutting down on inputs.

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Sean Westwood
Sean Westwood@seanjwestwood·
There really should be organized pushback from societies/associations. I am surprised that we have gone deep into the minutia of other aspsects of research, but largely let IRBs operate with impunity. I guess fear of retribution is powerful
Maya Sen@maya_sen

This, from a guest @stuartbuck1 substack post on institutional review boards, is really spot on

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MrRatable
MrRatable@MRatable·
I just used 4.7 to create an 80 page primer on the history of budget airlines, incredible. I didn’t read it but Claude made me a three bullet point summary. I didn’t read that either but Openclaw put it in a markdown file to broaden my context. I’m getting smarter every day.
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Ro'ee Levy
Ro'ee Levy@RoeeLevyZ·
A short thread on a new paper studying why voters often prefer environmental standards over more cost-effective instruments, like taxes or cap-and-trade. With Chenxi Jiang @maxlauletta @_josephshapiro @DmitryTaubinsky. 1/8
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