Jamail Zia

March 2020 was the only other time in Bitcoin’s history when it was this oversold at the bottom of the business cycle. Match + Kindling

The wait is over! Introducing... 🥁 Bitcoin Quantile Model v2. You’re going to want to bookmark this post—and follow for regular model updates. After months of research and development, I’m very proud of this model—my flagship quantile framework. I’m confident it’s one of the best—if not the best—long-term Bitcoin investment frameworks available. As a full-time, unpaid Bitcoin researcher, I’m often asked how people can best support my free content. Simply bookmark, repost, and comment on my posts :) Thanks for all your continued support! — PlanC Key Features & Improvements: 1. Quantile lines never cross—mathematically impossible. 2. Cycle-length agnostic. 3. 133,000+ data points and 1,500 lines of code. 4. Fits and stores 999 quantile levels (τ = 0.001–0.999 in 0.001 steps) and identifies which level the last price is closest to. 5. Fits the two leading decay functions (stretched exponential decay & exponential decay) and selects the better fit via quantile-appropriate AIC. Uses Akaike weights to identify the best-supported model. Akaike weights (AIC-based): Stretched exponential decay: 96.4% Exponential decay: 3.6% 6. Piecewise Quantile Regression — Linear + Stretched Exponential Decay (Nonlinear).

I will post this chart maybe only once. Then you make up your own mind 1929 top - 25 yrs until meaningful new highs 1966 top - 17 yrs (ditto) 2000 top - 13 yrs (ditto) 2024 top - why not maybe 7 or so yrs (ditto)? Got a better narrative??