@KobeissiLetter @grok If all Mideast oil supply is cut for 6 months what price will WTI trade at fundamentally assuming demand destruction of 10%
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Jason Longshaw ®️, CMT
5.8K posts
Jason Longshaw ®️, CMT
@JayLongshaw
Chartered Market Technician📈 & Chartered Investment Manager.💰is a utility.I talk anything I find fascinating: 📉 🏈 ⛳️ 🏒 Tweets are not a recco to invest
Calgary Katılım Kasım 2010
922 Takip Edilen914 Takipçiler
Today is one of those days that will be referenced for decades to come.
Oil prices are up +25% on a Sunday, US stock market futures erasing over -$2 trillion, and 20 million barrels per day of oil supply offline with no signs of deescalation.
This market never ceases to amaze.
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The Hormuz closure is not a 6-week shock. It is an 18-month stress test for the global food system.
Most allocators are trading the obvious: oil up, defense up, gold up.
They are missing the connective tissue. 🧵
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VIX is at 20 of Friday. Realized vol is at 12.5.
The market was pricing in chaos while barely moving.
Skew is in the 85th percentile on S&P. 89th on Nasdaq. That means the options market was bidding up crash protection like something nasty was coming. The options market often reflects these risks ahead of time because people us it to hedge risks.
This creates a specific problem for theta sellers. The carry looks positive — implied is almost double realized. Looks like free money, right?
Not when skew is here.
High skew is fuel. It either powers a sharp Vanna rally (if the fear unwinds) or accelerates a nasty selloff (if dealers flip short vol on the way down).
Either way, the distribution isn't normal. It's coiled.
Iran conflict kicked off over the weekend. Geopolitical risk escalating is keeping a persistent bid under volatility. And that bid isn't going away today, tomorrow, or next week.
So what did I do?
Stayed out. No short gamma last week.
Positive carry with 85th percentile skew isn't an opportunity. It's a trap.
No-trade is a decision too. Over the weekend, it was the right one.
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🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸🇨🇳 Iran's Hormuz gambit has one massive problem: it hurts China more than America.
The Strait of Hormuz just closed. Oil spiked 12% in hours. The move looks devastating.
Except 84% of the oil moving through that strait goes to Asia. China alone imports 5 million barrels a day through it.
Meanwhile only 6% is destined for Europe and America, which has its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve and domestic shale production to cushion the blow.
Here's the kicker: 90% of Iran's own oil exports go to China. Through the same strait.
Iran just threatened to sink its own economy to hurt an enemy that won't feel it as badly as its closest ally will.
Beijing has been Iran's lifeline for years: buying sanctioned oil, keeping the regime financially breathing. China didn't sign up for an energy crisis.
That's why Iran has threatened to close Hormuz for decades and never actually done it. The threat is the weapon. The closure itself is a self-inflicted wound.
Tonight they pulled the trigger anyway.
Which tells you something about how desperate, or how cornered, Tehran feels right now.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN: MAJOR COMBAT, MAJOR CONSEQUENCES The Middle East just crossed a line it may not be able to uncross. After coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets, including the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Trump declared the start of “major combat operations” and openly urged Iranians to “take over your government.” Iran answered within hours, launching missiles toward Israel and U.S. military installations in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE. Airspace across the region shut down. Hundreds of flights were grounded. Sirens wailed throughout Israel. Smoke rose near the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain. Even Dubai, usually insulated from frontline chaos, felt the spillover. Netanyahu framed the assault as removing an “existential threat.” Washington insists Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran denies pursuing one and now vows “crushing retaliation,” declaring all U.S. bases in the region legitimate targets. And just like that, deterrence becomes escalation. Calling on Iranians to overthrow their government may sound bold, but history is littered with examples of foreign pressure strengthening the very regimes it seeks to topple. Nationalism hardens. Hardliners consolidate. Internal dissent gets crushed under the banner of resisting outside aggression. Meanwhile, regional allies are uneasy. The UK has distanced itself from the strikes. European leaders condemn Iranian retaliation but stop short of endorsing Washington’s escalation. Gulf states now face direct missile threats on their soil. This is how regional conflicts become global crises. The stated goal is to stop a nuclear Iran. The risk is a multi-front war stretching from Israel to the Gulf, pulling in proxy forces, global powers, and energy markets already on edge. While “major combat operations” are easy to announce, they’re much harder to contain.
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@brianlilley Carney was at the Bank of England until 2020.
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Who has been in charge in Canada over the last 10 years?
We’ve had anemic growth under Trudeau, who was advised by Carney on the economy, for the last 10 years.
As our peer countries grew, got richer, we barely kept our heads above water.
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@3PeaksTrading what trading platform you using to get those TESLA IV charts below the stock price? Love that
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@Ihartitz I have followed you for so many years man, I just want to say you’re funny and as hell and always make me chuckle with the tweets & the jokes in your pods over the years. Great day to be great!
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Big day today everyone. Future is going to be changed one way or another. No matter what happens, let’s just try to stay positive. Understand a lot of time and energy has gone into this, but at the end of the day we’re gonna have to live with the results of the NFL trade deadline
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@BoringBiz_ @mahinckley Are secondaries over-paying then ? I have seen them get 20-25% NAV discounts to acquire
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@mahinckley Absolutely, NAV and secondaries exploding as a result
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Private equity is sitting on a mountain of un-exited companies
In the context of the current market environment, this makes a lot of sense
> higher rates have put a strain on overall cash flows because of debt service
> IPO and M&A markets are quiet, especially compared to the last decade of ZIRP era
But the bigger problem underneath here is a private market phenomenon of assets not being marked to market
Most PE firms have their portfolios marked at book, as in what they paid for the company at the time of acquisition
This is highly misleading because valuations are down across the board today
The same cash flows in a 5% rate environment gives you a very different enterprise value than before
So private equity firms know their assets are under water. But they can get away with ‘pretending’ as long as they do not exit through an IPO or M&A
Attempting an exit crystallizes the lower valuation and the unrealized losses become real losses.
Instead, private equity firms are now holding their breath under water until rates normalize at a lower level
“Yes, my portfolio is underwater today but if I just wait for rates to come down, I can exit with a much more favorable valuation and avoid embarrassment in front of my LPs”
Secondaries and continuation funds have definitely stepped in to fill some of the gaps, but it is not enough
Until rates normalize, I very much expect this mountain to continue piling up
On the bright side, once rates do normalize, a flurry of M&A activity would not surprise me
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@OleBeeM That’s good size. I have a client who has just about twice that and we trade options against it to generate income and reduce risk.
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@JoelTiedemann @monikafurtado This discussion between the two of you was really interesting & helpful. Thank you from a follow Calgarian.
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@bgoos22 @reinhardNFL There is a belief out there that you need more draft picks to get more opportunity to 💥 on these prospects.
Probabilities of hitting something with 7-9 picks vs just 3-4 is higher. They view it strictly as math since their is a 🎰 element to drafting
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@reinhardNFL @JayLongshaw They got arguably the best defensive player in the draft and have a massive amount of cap space next year. I’d rather have an elite player than coin flips on 4th and 5th round guys.
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Total value lost from the Vikings 3 trade-ups is roughly equivalent to wasting an early first round pick on the analytics pick value charts
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@reinhardNFL The one to move up to 17 was very expensive , that one I agree was frivolous
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@JayLongshaw The McCarthy trade from 11 to 10 was defensible. Other ones aren’t
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Kirk Cousins was apparently unaware the Falcons wanted Penix…
It only gets worse for the team who already committed $100 million to a 34 year old QB coming off an Achilles tear
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Falcons 8th Overall Pick (2022-2024)
2022: WR Drake London
2023: RB Bijan Robinson
— Kirk Cousins gets PAID —
2024: QB Michael Penix
The Falcons continue to be one of the worst run franchises in the NFL
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Was a memorable day!!
Anand Nanduri@NanduriNFL
At the two minute warning I would like to let you know: we good over here 😊
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@CarpentierNFL @MattyKiwoom He’s good, I have listened to him on YouTube
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Hey Everyone,
Can we get @MattyKiwoom over 2,000 Followers, please.
Matty has been the man, and hell of a friend and a dawg, hosting shows every night after working 10-12 hour shifts during the week & putting his babies to sleep.. Matty stays up to do shows and grind like a true M'F!
- Cody
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@YardsPerGretch Honestly, it saves me time. $99 to get back an unknown amount of hours of my life but still maintain an edge in a game I enjoy is outrageous.
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@YardsPerGretch I just paid $99 to Ben for his Stealing Signals commentary. It’s the 3rd year I have been subscribed and honestly I feel like am stealing from Ben given the value. Love to see how successful you’ve become
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