Jay Matthew Harris

@APompliano We are running out of oil my friend.

We need more data centers, not less.

@rockcreekfreak @BankerWeimar This is my #1 risk management tool in this cycle. Run a 50% energy stock list with 50% metals, you get low valuation risk, and very low market risk. Not sure why this is happening. This will benefit your portfolio in this particular cycle.

@BankerWeimar It’s interesting how precious metals and Oil are totally inversely correlated lately I’m not sure if I should continue holding both or what. What’s your thought on it?

It’s going to 90 this week…. Watch me be one trading day off again 😂

@CathieDWood Kathy, no mention of very little new issuance in longer dated treasuries? The loss of 13 mbpd is not narrative, simply the world you live in. Most of your post is narrative with commodities breaking out and the US treasury limited to short term financing.

One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy shock that is being monetized by the Federal Reserve would steepen the curve, not flatten it. The Fed is not monetizing this energy shock. In our view, the bond market may be beginning to discount something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of artificial intelligence and technologically enabled productivity gains across the economy. The cost to train AI models is falling dramatically. Inference costs are collapsing even more rapidly. At the same time, productivity growth appears to be accelerating beneath the surface of the official data, while unit labor costs remain remarkably subdued. Much of the market narrative today is centered around tariffs, deficits, and structurally higher inflation. Yet the underlying signals increasingly suggest that disinflationary forces tied to innovation are building momentum. We believe inflation is likely to surprise on the low side over the next 6–9 months. If that proves correct, the implications for interest rates and long-duration equities could be profound. Historically, the market has tended to underestimate the speed and scale at which technologically driven innovation can reshape the macroeconomic environment. I share my thoughts on this month's episode of In The Know.

@Rory_Johnston All of this is really bullish energy.

The Atlantic: “Trump is tired of the war, which has proved far more difficult and lasted far longer than he had expected. His party is warily watching rising gas prices and falling poll numbers. He doesn’t want to be bogged down in a Middle East conflict like some of his predecessors were. He doesn’t want it to upend his high-stakes summit next week in China. He is ready to move on.”

@adamtaggart Adam, not to mention pumping 2 million barrels per day into the Persian Gulf off Karg Island. What about the desalinization plants and drinking water?

I'm sure I'm going to regret wading back into the fray, but here goes... I'm hearing a lot of people say, "The US attacked Iran unprovoked, so of course Iran has the right to seize the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is just defending itself." First off, "the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz...are governed by international maritime law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)" britannica.com/question/Who-o… Second and more important, since when has it ever been acceptable to attack or hold hostage neutral parties, in war or otherwise? Spoiler alert: NEVER Your enemies are fair game in war. But NOT neutral parties. Again, NEVER. If I'm wrong here, please some one show me historical precedent. But Iran's attempted taking hostage of the Strait and the ships of neutral nations held captive there, threatening them with deadly violence should they attempt to transit, flies in the face of this. Honest question: why do so many people see this as acceptable?

@DonDurrett They grifted US and EU intellectual property for free. And no one says anything, or does anything about it. Don, what would you expect with little R&D hitting the P&L.

This is fake, right? 😳

@KobeissiLetter No credibility in labor stats, lagging indicator anyway. This has been happening for years now. Small business will be taking over labor market.

Something is off in the labor market: In February, US employers cut -448,000 jobs, the largest monthly decline since July 2020. Then, in March, US employers increased hiring by +655,000 MoM, the largest monthly increase on record, excluding the 2020 pandemic period. As a result, total hiring across the US economy rose to 5.55 million in March, the highest since February 2024. This pushed the hiring rate up +0.4 percentage points, to 3.5%, the highest since May 2024, but still below the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.8% This is all despite massive layoff announcements occurring in the first 4 months of the year. Labor market data is showing conflicting signs.

@joekent16jan19 Joe, get real. They just lost 95% of their export revenue with no industrial base left. Your post seems short sighted. Patience is a virtue. Expect IRGC defections once paychecks no longer arrive. These IRGC are grifters first and thugs second.

The sooner we recognize this hard truth—that there’s no military solution to the conflict with Iran—the better off the United States will be. Sheer military force cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz without escalating the war and sucking us into another endless, bloody quagmire that delivers zero benefit to our people. We can’t get rid of the emboldened government in Tehran, regardless of how many leaders we kill. If we try we will end up with a government or failed state, worse than what we have now. The inevitable reality is this: we will have to cut a deal with Iran. We can be pragmatic and do it now on our own terms, or we can keep listening to the same neocons and the Israeli government who got us into this mess, only to cut the same deal after we’ve lost even more. Recognizing that we have hit the point of diminishing returns and pulling out now is not weakness. It is strength—and it’s the right thing to do for the American people.

@JavierBlas Your sure their wells are still pumpming?

The push to re-open the Strait of Hormuz today, with two US warship crossing it and two US-flagged merchant vessels, signals the White House realises it can not keep waiting for the blockade to force Iran into the negotiation table. Effectively, it's an admission the blockade isn't working (if the blockade is seen as a means to get Iranian concessions, rather than an end in itself). The timeline of what the blockade would do to the Iranian oil industry was completely wrong.

@PeterMallouk Peter, you will soon find out in q2 earnings reports that cheap energy is a pre-requisite.

The market isn’t red or blue - it’s green. It doesn’t care about politics. It runs on earnings, innovation, and growth.

@texasrunnerDFW @nicksortor Alot of obesity among x-ers, z-ers, and gamers

@nicksortor Another subsidy for…checks notes… Boomers!

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump announces Medicare patients will begin receiving weight loss drugs like Ozempic for $50 PER MONTH starting July 1 It's currently $1,300! That's a HELL of a reduction.

@wesbury keep up the great work!

Steve Liesman blocked me when I said he should ask about it.

@TimmerFidelity Models are very dangerous @ inflection points. Please exorcise situational awareness on the inflation acceleration and associated impact on multiples. Credit spreads will discount this soon enough.

While valuations in the US remain a concern for many investors, in my view they are justified by the macro fundamentals of all-time high (and rising) margins and tight credit spreads. Those two variables are the independent variables in my regression below, which suggests that the equity risk premium should be 4.0% (instead of the historical average of 5.0%). Based on that regression, the fair value for the S&P 500 index is 7455 and rising.

@APompliano What is Silva's inflation expectation 12 months forward?

The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. They should have cut interest rates. Just another mistake in a long line of mistakes throughout Jerome Powell's tenure as Chairman.

@wesbury Truer words were never spoken!

“My concern is legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors,” Powell said. My concern is QE, which increases inequality and affects politics and the Fed financing deficits at artificially low rates, which drives spending higher than it should be, which also affects politics. The Fed got into politics, not the other way around.

@KobeissiLetter It is important to note that capital spending is indeed cyclical, and energy price increases are a late cycle phenominum.

Our most frequently asked question right now: "If oil prices are above $100/barrel and the Iran War isn't over, why are stocks at record highs?" The answer to this question is simple. The AI Revolution has simply become so large, that investors are viewing everything else as "noise." Over the last few months, as large cap technology stocks traded flat then sharply lower amid the Iran War, the AI narrative only grew. The Magnificent 7 companies are set to invest over $600 BILLION in AI this year alone. And, as broader markets swept tech giants like Nvidia and Alphabet lower, these stocks reached their cheapest Forward P/E levels since 2019. At the March 30th bottom, the S&P 500 Information Technology index was trading at just a 4% Forward P/E premium to the S&P 500, the lowest since January 2019. Tech stocks became cheaper than the average S&P 500 stock for the first time since 2017. Nvidia, for example, is now trading at just a ~26x Forward P/E multiple, even as it is back at record highs. Walmart? 43x. Costco? 46x. The reality is that many large cap technology stocks are merely getting cheaper as they go up. And when they go down, they become remarkably cheap. We are in the biggest technological revolution in modern history, and even $100 oil, a 4.40% 10Y Yield, and rate cuts priced out until 2027 are unable to derail the train. Asset owners will continue to win.

@texasrunnerDFW AI, not covid. Check out S&P 500 margins exploding at the expense of labor.

DID COVID BREAK THE ECONOMY? Extreme divergence of UMich Current Economic Conditions and the S&P 500 occurred after the pandemic during both administrations For the first 40 years, the two series are strongly positively correlated—as markets rose, consumer assessments of current conditions rose with them, and vice versa. The correlation was especially tight in the 2010s, moving in lockstep 2020 broke it completely. Since 2020, the correlation has inverted to -0.51, meaning current economic conditions have been falling as the S&P 500 has been rising The stock market used to be a reliably good barometer of economic sentiment, but now it’s actually an INVERSE indicator What changed?

@unusual_whales more like 4 months

Ken Griffin says the world will end up in a recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for up to 12 months. Do you agree?

@elonmusk when does Robo-taxi launch in PA?

Tesla driving itself around LA

@APompliano How does Silva treat the timing of $80 per barrel? Do we hit $175 first?

The Iran war is going to end at some point. Oil will fall back below $80 per barrel. Our AI agents have identified 3 stocks that could double when oil falls below this threshold. Read now on ProCap Insights: procapinsights.com/app/articles/s…