@SGSafran @SleeperMets Don’t forget rehabbing from a broken foot
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Jesse Chin
1.9K posts
Jesse Chin
@JeopardyJesseC
JeoparDaddy Champion May 25, 2023.I am so smart.S-M-R-T PC - Autos of Jeopardy Contestants, New York Mets ,Miami Heat #LFGM
Bayside, NY Katılım Mart 2023
624 Takip Edilen321 Takipçiler
@SleeperMets Well David Stearns committed malpractice because he SHOULD have shopped him around and to see if he could have gotten a better deal than picking up a cooked 35.7 year old who is no longer able to hit and is owed 80m over 3 years.
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Will Sammon in his latest article about Brandon Nimmo:
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns told him, “I did not shop you around.” Nimmo said that Stearns told him the Rangers wanted Nimmo and how “it got to a point where we felt like this is beneficial for both sides.”
Nimmo asked at one point during talks with Stearns, “Why am I not part of the solution?”
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Jesse Chin retweetledi
shipped my Barry Bonds auto /10 through @USPS who lost the package and now @UPSCapital is denying my insurance claim for the insurance I bought on it through @pirateship what the heck is this insurance for.
@CardPurchaser please help this get seen. Their insurance is a scam??
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Draymond Green says he’s not a dirty player and calls out Pelle Larsson and European players for being dirty 😳
“I don’t do dirty things. There’s not a player in the NBA who can tell you Draymond is a dirty player. There are a lot of Europeans who do dirty stuff on the basketball court.”
(🎥 @DraymondShow / h/t @HeatCulture13 )
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Jesse Chin retweetledi
Is your collection in need of a Hall of Famer?
Celebrate Carlos Beltrán's Hall of Fame election by reposting and liking for a chance to win this @Topps 1/1 card!
MLB@MLB
Bravo, Carlos Beltrán 👏 Welcome to Cooperstown!
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Jesse Chin retweetledi
Amazin’ Andruw!
Celebrate Andruw Jones' Hall of Fame election by reposting and liking for a chance to win this autographed @Topps relic card!
MLB@MLB
The moment Andruw Jones became a Hall of Famer 🥹
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Jesse Chin retweetledi
⚾️ REPOST TO WIN ⚾️
To celebrate Julio’s birthday, we are giving away a signed baseball! All you have to do is hit that repost button to enter!
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Jesse Chin retweetledi
A celebration about Ozzie
Repost and reply for a chance to win this autographed Ozzie Smith @Topps card!
MLB@MLB
“GO CRAZY, FOLKS, GO CRAZY!” Happy birthday to Hall of Famer, 15x All-Star, 13x Gold Glove Award winner, a Wizard of Oz you CAN rely on - the legendary Ozzie Smith.
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Again, I hadn’t used bWAR until after you referenced it. I also never said that Nimmo is an awful player, just that he is a declining player.
I don’t think the positional adjustments are “out of whack.” A replacement level LF is a better hitter than a replacement level 2B!
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Here is the #Mets off-season to date, which shows players who are gone or not yet re-signed compared to the players they have brought in with their 2025 fWAR.
Note: the 2025 trade deadline guys include only their fWAR with the Mets.
Still got room under my tree!
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Or you can see that Nimmo has completely changed his game to one more reliant on power and less on walks while also becoming more of a threat stealing bases. Is it an aging curve or a completely different player? Not a bad player offensively but just a different mindset.
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron We can get a better idea of the aging curve if we use more than two data points. Look at that last 3-5 years to get a better idea of the trajectory Nimmo is on.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron And again, that’s in response to your continued usage of war and talking about Nimmo being an awful player and that clearly shows he isn’t and has plenty of use.
And re: oWAR that pretty much shows their positional adjustments are out of wack and how low the bar is for Semien
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron First of all, you very clearly did mention bWAR, I'll quote the tweet again: x.com/JeopardyJesseC…
Second of all, the discrepancy in oWAR is because it already includes the positional adjustment.
Jesse Chin@JeopardyJesseC
@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron And Nimmo had a 2.9 bWAR last year but you considered him ready to fall off a cliff and a negative asset that should have been shipped out for a non-versatile player with a negative bat and on the tail end of his career.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Which doesn’t make sense then because his WAR increased in 2025 from 2024. You basically want to play by your own rules when it comes to how you want to calibrate
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Based on these numbers, you're expecting his rate of decline to decelerate, so I don't think that is common sense actually. I would expect Nimmo's decline to continue at the same rate it has been or accelerate, as is typical for aging baseball players with lingering injuries.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron No, I mentioned oWAR. Baseball reference lists Semien as having a superior oWAR than Nimmo
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron I actually hadn't used bWAR at all until the tweet that you are responding to.
WAR is an estimate, so it's never meant to be perfectly accurate, but I don't think it misses the mark on either Nimmo or Semien. People who think WAR is "wrong" are usually undervaluing defense.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron And if he has 2.5-3 war the next two years and 2 the next and 1-2 the final two years isn’t that averaging 2 WAR over the next five years? I think that’s being rather fair and common sense for a decline
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Nimmo was already at 3 WAR last year, down from 5 WAR just a couple years before. He's projected at 2.6 WAR for next year and will probably continue trending down from there. Nimmo is very unlikely to average 2 WAR/yr over the next 5 years. That's why the Mets wanted to trade him
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron And I used it because you keep using it and keep worrying about Nimmo’s production and I’m stating he’s fine but also war isn’t the end all be all and that Semien’s numbers are also wonky at the same time. Do you disagree that his numbers don’t seem to match?
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron I mentioned bWAR because YOU used it earlier to support Nimmo. Be consistent. I'd be just as happy to use fWAR as well. Either way, the result is the same: Semien and Nimmo are similarly valued players.
x.com/JeopardyJesseC…
Jesse Chin@JeopardyJesseC
@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron And Nimmo had a 2.9 bWAR last year but you considered him ready to fall off a cliff and a negative asset that should have been shipped out for a non-versatile player with a negative bat and on the tail end of his career.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron And that’s where we disagree. I don’t think we get anything close to $77M in value from Semien while Nimmo I think we’d get at least 2-3 years of above avg production and avg 2 WAR/yr over the life of the deal. At like $8-9M per win that’s like $80M-90M of value.
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron I don't think paying Semien $24M for the next three years is good. As I've said elsewhere, he's a declining player on a bloated contract. I just think it's less bad than paying Nimmo $20M for the next five years, who is also a declining player on a bloated contract.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Nope. It’s that he’s a prospect and you hope he improves. For Semien you’re hoping he’s not done but already kinda concede he is done.
There’s no homerism. I’m of the opinion if you’re not trying to win then you shouldn’t be hindering your prospects development at the same time
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron You can't seriously be talking about how Semien offers zero help with the bat and then in the same breath say you want to give those PAs to Luisangel Acuna and his sub-.600 OPS bat instead. Come on now. That's just blind homerism at that point. Semien is better than Acuna.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron And yet Nimmo playing LF is perfectly fine offensively and defensively while Semien playing 2B is awful offensively and fine defensively.
You could improve 2B defense in other ways that cost less
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Like I said, you're overstating the difference in value between these two players based on an over-reliance on offensive stats. Nimmo's value is more in his bat than his glove, Semien's value is more in his glove than his bat. The Mets are trying to improve their defense.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Now look at Semien’s oWAR on BR and tell me that their formula for WAR isn’t broken. You over-rely on stats and blindly trust them
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron You're dramatically overstating the difference in value between Nimmo and Semien, probably due to an over-reliance on offensive stats, and maybe also some homerism.
Last year Semien had 3.3 bWAR in 127 games, compared to 2.9 bWAR in 155 games for Nimmo. They're very similar.
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@_MLBrian_ @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Like you don’t even realize that you think having nimmo as a dh option or even a fourth OF at $20M is bad. And then you think starting Semien and paying $26M to be a walking four outs/game while blocking potential prospects and rehabbing a broken foot is good. Make it make sense
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@JeopardyJesseC @StotheOB @michaelgbaron Semien is a better 2B than everyone you just named lol. We're talking about the guy who just won the AL Gold Glove. Semien's defensive value at 2B was 2x as much as McNeil+Acuna last year in a similar number of innings.
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