Lawrence Diaz (@JewishHispanic) - Twitter Profili

Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·12h

@NapervillePol Wrong as usual

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Naperville Politics Guy@NapervillePol·13h

I think Argentina is going to win

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·15h

@ReubenR80027912

InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

.@RCPolitics — Generic Ballot polling average on July 19th → (vs. actual midterm results) • 🔴 2010: GOP +2.5 → (GOP +6.8) • 🔵 2014: Dem +1.5 → (GOP +5.7) • 🔵 2018: Dem +7.7 → (Dem +8.4) • 🔴 2022: GOP +2.1 → (GOP +2.8) • 🔵 2026: Dem +4.7

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·15h

@GenericPilot @ReubenR80027912 Also more often than not waves break late. x.com/iapolls2022/st…

InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

.@RCPolitics — Generic Ballot polling average on July 19th → (vs. actual midterm results) • 🔴 2010: GOP +2.5 → (GOP +6.8) • 🔵 2014: Dem +1.5 → (GOP +5.7) • 🔵 2018: Dem +7.7 → (Dem +8.4) • 🔴 2022: GOP +2.1 → (GOP +2.8) • 🔵 2026: Dem +4.7

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·16h

@GenericPilot @ReubenR80027912 RCP is trash. Nate has it at 6.1 right now. It’s not that different natesilver.net/p/generic-ball…

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Reuben Rodriguez@ReubenR80027912·1d

As I’ve said: the era of wave midterms is over. Ds still have a good environment & more reliable voters as their base, but structurally, present coalitions are so entrenched that you can’t get 2018 I’d also note that Trump was still all consuming in ‘18, now ppl are innured

InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

Post-Ipsos: Mixed signals for Dems vs 2018 blue wave. Generic Ballot 2018: Dems +10 2026: Dems +3 —— Enthusiastic Edge 2018: Dems +2 2026: Dems +10 "Despite Trump’s unpopularity, GOP isn’t losing badly on generic ballot. Their base lacks energy, but redistricting + fixes on gas/Iran could help them hold the House"

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·15h

@DuvalEaton @ReubenR80027912 💯

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Dylan Higbie@DuvalEaton·16h

@ReubenR80027912 I would say its imprudent to declare that wave elections cannot happen due to a few polls in July.

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Reuben Rodriguez@ReubenR80027912·17h

Yes and: a HUGELY underrated issue is everyone wants a big wave rebuke so someone (D or R) has to “ moderate back to normalcy” But neither party can b/c the dynamics of a wave aren’t there and Trump ‘24 proved Lazarus (or Atlantic City): everything that dies someday comes back

Liam Donovan@LPDonovan

@ReubenR80027912 And it's self-reinforcing. If neither side can manage to win to overwhelmingly that they are substantially overexposed, far less risk of giving it all back and then some.

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·15h

@ReubenR80027912 LOL it’s way too early to assume no wave dude. Breathe.

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·17h

@ReubenR80027912

Chaz Nuttycombe@ChazNuttycombe

I'm not following the generic ballot much (not my job, I work on state polling) but I think it's more likely than not that a lot of pollsters are making the mistake people made in VA/NJ last year and weighting to 2024 recall and/or have a PID that is way too Republican.

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·17h

@JigginJalen @ReubenR80027912 It’s close enough

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Jiggin Jalen@JigginJalen·1d

@JewishHispanic @ReubenR80027912 That was not LV

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·21h

@roon0292 @bdquinn @paulesq711 If Trump continues to play games in Iran and oil prices rise again then it can get much worse for Rs

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Jim Rooney@roon0292·1d

@bdquinn @paulesq711 My guess is still we land in the D+6-7 range More than enough to flip the house but not enough for the senate

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✝️♂️Moar Data Centers Plz🇺🇲🌐@paulesq711·1d

Reverse 2022 incoming.

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Washington Post/Ipsos poll | 7/9-7/13 RV Generic congressional ballot 2026 🟦Democratic 48% 🟥Republican 45% — Which political party do you agree with more on important issues? 🟥Republican 41% 🟦Democratic 40% — Which political party do you trust to do a better job handling the economy? 🟥Republican 39% 🟦Democratic 35% washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·1d

@mtmanjaro10

GIF

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James Talarico Democrat@mtmanjaro10·1d

Damn she’s absolutely right and Haley is definitely part of the disease that brought us Trump.

Acyn@Acyn

AOC: You deserve a politics that treats the disease and not just the symptoms of what brought us Donald Trump.

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·1d

@cars0000n @bdquinn Pretty similar

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cars0000n@cars0000n·1d

@JewishHispanic @bdquinn Well, +8 among certain to vote, which I guess is not exactly the same as an LV screen?

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Sir Humphrey 🇺🇦@bdquinn·1d

I don't know how many of these polls with narrow margins we have to see before people grasp that this isn't going to be some D+9 or more super wave year. Despite Trump having a 40% approval rating in the poll among registered voters, people just have that many misgivings on Dems.

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Washington Post/Ipsos poll | 7/9-7/13 RV Generic congressional ballot 2026 🟦Democratic 48% 🟥Republican 45% — Which political party do you agree with more on important issues? 🟥Republican 41% 🟦Democratic 40% — Which political party do you trust to do a better job handling the economy? 🟥Republican 39% 🟦Democratic 35% washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·1d

@tencor_7144 More importantly Messi is denied the golden boot! 🎉

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Political Election Projections@tencor_7144·1d

The fact that neither team really cared about losing is what made this game so high-scoring, imo. Scoring goals is generally more fun than defending, so why care about defending if the game doesn't matter!

Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban

One of the craziest World Cup games of all time.

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·1d

@AJentleson I believe Rs will end up at 45%

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Adam Jentleson@AJentleson·1d

Suboptimal

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·1d

@Scott_Brightman @JoshKraushaar Dig deeper. Basically +8 LV

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Scott Brightman@Scott_Brightman·1d

@JoshKraushaar Red Wave?

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Josh Kraushaar@JoshKraushaar·1d

Generic ballot tightening:

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Washington Post/Ipsos poll | 7/9-7/13 RV Generic congressional ballot 2026 🟦Democratic 48% 🟥Republican 45% — Which political party do you agree with more on important issues? 🟥Republican 41% 🟦Democratic 40% — Which political party do you trust to do a better job handling the economy? 🟥Republican 39% 🟦Democratic 35% washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·1d

@JoshKraushaar +8 LV basically

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Lawrence Diaz@JewishHispanic·1d

@admcrlsn What other polls? Please no Abdul integrals or DSA polls

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Adam Carlson@admcrlsn·1d

Remember this Detroit News/Glengariff poll that Stevens leading by 7 pts? I’m not in the business of unskewing polls — but objectively they are projecting a Democratic primary electorate that would have unprecedentedly high vote shares in the Detroit metro area & among Black voters — both groups that heavily favor Stevens. Perhaps they’re seeing something that no other pollster is, and they will be proven right. Or perhaps their model is an outlier and too friendly to Stevens. I’ll let you be the judge.