Joe Dobrin, MD

@Saul_Sadka @GaryHaubold Not confirmed. But serious people in the field are taking the idea seriously. x.com/ArmsControlWon…

@GaryHaubold is this confirmed?

For anyone doubting that the Iranians really did shoot a missile at Diego Garcia that could also hit London, let’s do the math. Diego Garcia is a tiny dot in the ocean. If the missile wasn’t approaching the island, the Americans wouldn’t have fired a $25 million SM-3 interceptor at it, would they? But they did. In truth, everyone in government always knew the Iranians could fire missiles at Europe, since it’s trivial to vastly increase the range of a missile by reducing the weight of the warhead. Once they have nukes, of course, that’s all moot.

@Saul_Sadka While Israel's multi-layered BMD system, in total, has a >85% success rate, the intercept rate for each fired Arrow 3 is classified, and therefore is unknown to the public. A reasonable estimate would be 50-70%, which is still quite good.

AVAILABLE FOR SALE: This footage from one hour ago in Israel shows an Israeli Arrow 3 interceptor blowing up a Europe-capable IRGC missile in space, turning it into a magical rainbow cloud. It has a 90% success rate—the best available. Who’s buying? UK? France? Spain?

@RWPUSA washingtonpost.com/national/2026/…

@RWPUSA There's an extensive public record of Joe Kent trafficking in conspiracy theories, antisemitic tropes, J6 denialism, and associating with Nick Fuentes and other Nazi-praising, or Nazi-adjacent actors. It's not wrong to call out his behavior.

Huh? @AlanDersh seems to say this about everybody.

@CreekshitinDaws @KMutisi Nice gif, and you're right the footage is old. The video is from October, 2024.

@KMutisi "THAT'S FROM LAST JUNE!!!"

CNN live coverage showing MULTIPLE Iranian missiles making direct hits in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv … All over TikTok, young Americans are talking about how ADVANCED Iran is yet US media has been feeding them lies. Most are rooting for Iran

@EarlyLif3 @KMutisi @grok Neither. It's from October, 2024.

@KMutisi @grok is this from 12 day war or recently

@MrClevelandOh @KMutisi @grok October, 2024.

@KMutisi @grok when was this recorded

@jimNjue_ This footage was from October, 2024. Of course, you know that. Those following you may not. Now they do.

CNN’s live coverage of Missiles landing in Tel-Aviv. This is quite odd. Western Media usually tries to downplay it and hide the truth from their audience when Israel is being hit.

@FRHoffmann1 Interesting analysis. 2 Q's: 1) As Stunner is an HTK (hit-to-kill) weapon without an explosive warhead, wouldn't the explosion in the video indicate it did, in fact, intercept its target (a second incoming MRBM)? 2) How do u know the featured interception isn't another Stunner?

Oh, looks like this post is gaining traction. If you are interested in missile-related analysis, feel free to check out my Substack, Missile Matters: missilematters.substack.com All content is free, no paywalls.

One of the wildest intercept videos I have ever seen. First glowing projectile: very likely a Stunner interceptor launched from David’s Sling, climbing toward the incoming MRBM warhead. Second glowing projectile: the incoming MRBM warhead descending toward the ground, evading the interceptor. Third glowing projectile entering from the right: very likely a Tamir interceptor launched from Iron Dome, approaching the MRBM warhead on a near-horizontal trajectory and successfully destroying it. In fact, you can see the interceptor’s flight path begin with a very shallow climb before reversing and flying toward the ground on a very shallow descent. The trajectory and intercept must have occured at the very limits of the system’s safety envelope. H/T to @Etienne_Marcuz for the video.

@aryehazan @MaxAbrahms @ProfessorPape It's hard to square that with mounting dozens of cluster munitions on their largest missiles, and releasing them at an altitude of 70-100km where they disperse to have essentially zero military value, but are quite effective at terrorizing a large civilian population.

@MaxAbrahms @ProfessorPape they are being responsible and restrained, hoping to reach a mutually acceptable proposal at the negotiation table

Most people misunderstand the early phase of the Iran war Precision strikes create early success—targets destroyed, leaders claiming deterrence restored But historically this is often the most dangerous moment I call this the Escalation Trap and discussed this with Steven Bartlett on Diary of a CEO Full conversation: escalationtrap.substack.com/p/a-conversati… Next Sunday I’ll brief live on the warning indicators to watch

@ka_grieco Doesn't the fast littoral combat ships' new anti-drone and missile packages, and ability to deploy from a safe distance unmanned mine-disabling sea drones, provide the rationale for replacing the old minesweepers with repurposed LCSs?

Iran laying mines in Hormuz creates a dangerous dilemma. To clear them, the US needs slow, lightly-armed minesweepers in a narrow, predictable corridor. Iran has shore-based missiles, Shaheds, and fast attack boats waiting. Call it a potential Minebush, same logic as a SAMbush.

@1goodtern What does "end the people who started it" mean?

This is good to hear, but Americans need to do more to end it, and end the people who started it.

@ka_grieco @dawn2042 Thank you for this important analysis. Quick question... We don't hear much about successful drone attacks on Israel during current fighting (although there were a few in 2024/5). Have the Israelis learned from the experience to develop a better anti-drone defense?

@dawn2042 Ugh. Yes. Don't know how I did that.

@shdisksgayg @dex_eve @GuyPlopsky @grok It can be engaged during the mid-course (exo-atmospheric) part of its flight by Arrow 3 or SM-3. While there have been many successful intercepts at this stage, I'm not sure it's possible to identify the type of incoming Iranian missile until parts of it strike the ground.

A short thread on the Khorramshahr missile system. BLUF: 1.) suggests that Iran's shorter-range arsenal has been plugged up 2.) use as a high-altitude cluster weapon suggests Iran knows it does not have the numbers to get through Israeli BMD

@GrandpaRoy2 @DIPLOMACYnWAR Not so much. Released at this altitude, assuming there were 10 exposed planes on the flight line, you'd have approximately a 1 in 1000 chance of hitting one of them - assuming all of the submunitions survived reentry and exploded on impact.

@DIPLOMACYnWAR Yes, as well as soft-skinned targets such as aircraft on air base flight lines.

Iranian “Qadr” (Intensity) fragmentation submunitions dropped from medium-range ballistic missiles are dropping over Israel. The submunitions are covered with a fiberglass heat shield, and when dispensed at an altitude of 7–8 km fall through the atmosphere with a bright glow. 1/

@rodrigocunha_rj @GrandpaRoy2 Released at this altitude, decoys are the only plausible military purpose. Their dispersal over a roughly 8km radius upon ground impact make them an indiscriminate weapon of terror, but militarily useless.

@GrandpaRoy2 Seems like decoys

@RachelBitecofer Over the long-term, insurers may demand the construction of more oil pipelines and terminals outside the Persian/Arabian Gulf. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in Syria or even Israel in coming years. While this won't help in this crisis, it may reduce future risk.

Apparently they didn’t even bother to think about the fact that this attack would close the Strait of Hormuz and create an oil crisis.

@SethAbramson CNN acknowledges Pleitgen is allowed to report only on topics and in a manner approved by the Islamic Republic. At best, this is war tourism. At worst it is platforming regime propaganda. It doesn't rise to the level of journalism - in the way it is practiced in the West.

Not really what the regime—the American one—has been telling us, what with Trump screeching on Truth Social about "unconditional surrender" and Iran being at the point of collapse. cnn.com/2026/03/05/wor…

@SethAbramson The statement said "active combat", not "dog fight". The most plausible explanation is that the F15s were on an anti-drone/cruise missile mission. While it's reasonable to doubt DoD assertions, that the jets crashed over Kuwait lends some credence to the friendly-fire claim.

If Iran still has a functional enough air force that it can project force out-of country, is it possible the IDF and USAF are overstating their air superiority to make the invasion sound more successful than it has been? PS: Iran isn't a country you can beat solely from the air.

Is anyone else as confused by this Pentagon statement as I am? We were told that the Israelis and [we] Americans had achieved air superiority over Iran, but *now* we are being told that the Kuwaitis shot down 3 F-15s over Kuwait that were...dogfighting with the Iranian Air Force?

@hippiedaytrader @TheJFreakinC Agreed. I counted at least a few felonies committed by ICE agents in this video. Immigration enforcement in a democracy is typically targeted, painstaking, and methodical work. If they can't do it properly and lawfully, they have no business in this city. They need to go home.

@TheJFreakinC We want them all out. I don’t care. If you are here illegally, you need to go home.

🚨BREAKING: ICE/Border Patrol agents are proving once again that they are not targeting violent criminals… They are targeting children and families. On Sunday, agents were caught illegally operating in Minneapolis public parks, in direct violation of city orders, and then tear-gassing spaces designed for kids and families. This happened at Powderhorn Park. In the video, ICE agents are seen aggressively driving into the parking lot of a public park, on a Sunday… a day when families and children regularly sled, play, and gather there. U.S. citizens are already in the park. They begin recording and blowing whistles. An ICE agent then chases a U.S. citizen through the park, tackles him to the ground, and handcuffs him. While that’s happening, other agents begin deploying tear gas, throwing canisters at U.S. citizens who are nowhere near them, filling the parking lot and the park itself with smoke. Tear gas causes respiratory distress, burning eyes, nausea, and panic… effects that are especially dangerous for children. And agents illegally deployed chemical agents anyway, in an open public park, with families nearby. That is excessive use of force, and child endangerment. And they did all of it while being explicitly prohibited from operating in the park in the first place… The Minneapolis Mayor’s Executive Order 2025-02 bans civil immigration enforcement staging on city property. On January 7th, 2026, the Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board unanimously passed a resolution aligning with that order, explicitly prohibiting ICE from staging or operating in parks. ICE did it anyway. And it didn’t stop there… Later, that same day, around 12:45 PM, ICE agents were seen sitting in Folwell Park, another public park. A woman approaches them, calmly cites the order, and tells them they are not allowed to be there and need to leave. ICE/Border Patrol are choosing spaces where children gather instead of places where actual crimes occur, then responding to public scrutiny by assaulting civilians and deploying chemical weapons. If ICE/Border Patrol are willing to do this in broad daylight, on a Sunday, in front of families, while being filmed, after being explicitly told they are not allowed to be there… Then they are not enforcing the law. They are endangering children and assaulting anyone who dares to exercise their First Amendment rights, and say that’s not okay.