Joe Allen

@ClwydEnComu @the_FLT I can't think of any situation in which Labour could be seen to allow Reform into government regardless of how bitter they might be. Ramifications would go beyond Wales.

@Joe___Allen @the_FLT I’m really worried about Welsh Labour going into this. I think we need Plaid & Greens > Reform & Tories just to be safe, I’m really not sure a Senedd Labour Group provisionally led by Huw Thomas (?) would see much of a difference between a Plaid vs Reform FM

There's zero doubt who'll lead the next Welsh Gov. It'll be Rhun ap Iorwerth. This isn't a close election on this basic issue. Why? Because Welsh parties have unofficially sorted themselves into Right vs Left blocs. And over the last year the Left bloc leads by avg of 21pts.

@the_FLT Yeah my original draft had "almost zero" but space constraints etc. But I think the pressure in any situation where Ref represented a real threat would be impossible to resist.

@Joe___Allen Are we 100% certain Labour MSs will vote for Rhun for FM though (rather than just abstaining)? I think it's probably the most likely option, by a long way, but I'm not sure I have 0 doubt, especially given there's not much time for negotiations before an FM needs to be in place

@LtfcMatt Yes, I think the highest previous was 36% on the regional vote in 2016 (Con+UKIP+Abolish).

@Joe___Allen Isn't 39% record for the right in Wales? I know the tories got 36% in 2019 which was a great night for them

Given the Left Bloc's dominance, the only question would be who leads it. And that's no longer in question. Plaid have an avg poll lead of +15pts over Labour. The last firm showing a tight race between the two was @Moreincommon_ and their new poll now has a +14pts gap.

@Michael_J_Hil Healey had a very impressive war record!

With the exception of Jenkins all of these people achieved nothing of note.

@AbolishWestmin I don't think it is misunderstood. I don't disagree really. But it doesn't change the fact that the line "one party needs to be bigger than Reform to stop them" is just not true. That's not how it will work.

@Joe___Allen The importance of Plaid beating Reform UK in both the popular vote and the seat count is still badly misunderstood. Without that, any centre-left coalition would be undermined from day one. Reform UK would use it not only to attack any new gov but to attack devolution itself

Line in this saying "one party needs to be bigger than Reform to stop them" is just straightforwardly not true. I do think who comes first is important. But the framing here is, to be generous, really stretching things.

@JeremyBrookman2 I understand both points and don't really disagree. But it doesn't change the fact that the line "one party needs to be bigger than Reform to stop them" is just not true.

@Joe___Allen The problem is how it looks that the party that wins doesn't get to form the government in a country that is used to winner takes all. Also Reform being seen to lose an election bursts any bubble that they're odds on to win the next UK GE.

@tayzthecreator Nah I've heard your one is sound.

@Sam_Dumitriu Paging @UnderSneege

Sounds like we should change those laws then!

MS salaries started in 99/00 at just over 2x national F/T salaries. Peaked at 2.5x in the mid-2010s when a pay freeze for the 2011-16 term was followed by an 18% real terms catch-up rise. Current settlement is back down at around 2.15x.

@ClwydEnComu @LaurenMaeve Fingers crossed that the result is as tricky as possible, negotiations fail for 28 days and then we get another election.

@Joe___Allen @LaurenMaeve I can’t tell if I want all the time to be like election time haha I love the attention, never had so much post

I will miss getting slightly dubious leaflets every day.

According to Natural England's modelling, the fish disco will save just 0.083 salmon and 0.028 sea trout per year. That works out to over £280,000 per fish saved. For £700 million, we could wipe out Somerset’s £41 million council deficit for a decade, fix every single pothole in the county, build a rail link to Minehead, and make every bus in Somerset free for years. Or we could just make the electricity that Hinkley produces cheaper, and we'd all benefit. Being a poor country is a choice.

@tayzthecreator Jackpot for the Reform conspiracy lads.

1/ 🧵 The Festival of Britain opened this day in 1951 - according to its official guide a 'united act of national reassessment, and [a] corporate reaffirmation of faith in the nation’s future’.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 — Nowcast UK final forecast The first election under a new electoral system is going to throw some curveballs Unpredictability of d'hondt PR in the 6th seat is easily enough to make up the difference between Plaid and Reform Distant 3rd is still distant 3rd though

This is the point I keep making. Natural England are legally mandated to only care about the fish, not Putin, power cuts, bankrupt businesses etc. We have eliminated any concept of ‘trade-offs’, at vast expense.