BioSniper

$VKTX CEO today comparing different amylin structures. He commented on $zeal & $ABBV GUBRA structures , that attempts to improve solution stability might have harmed efficacy ( I would call this potential indirect hit to ABBV that was defending its compound within the same conference) Viking DACRA is a structural hybrid of $LLy Eloralentide and $NVO cagrilintide And more potent than VK2735 in obese monkeys.

$VKTX Here's my quick notes on Leerink CC, if you missed the Call - 4 Phase 3 trials for Obesity will be underway by EOY (SubQ+Oral) - Big data set coming this year: Maintenance study+ Amylin data - Rapid enrollment and larger size for the Vanquish Trial. Huge interest by the Investigators during the investigator's meetings - Huge enthusiasm and the speed of enrollment - Auto-Injector already incorporated, bioequivalence study already done - Vanquish dosing: Starts at 1.25mg X 2weeks, then incremental step up towards 2.5, 7.5, 12.5 and 17.5 doses. - Vanquish-1 readout: We should be very competitive to GLP-1 and GLP/GIP. Brian always under promise but overdelivers when results pour in - Half-Life quite a bit longer vs other agents. Different biological profile. Unique PK profile - First dual agonist to be launched in the oral formulation - 5-10% market share to be a huge successful in the obesity space. - New CCO Neil (previous job at $LLY ) his experience already showing up during the call with emphasis on drug launch and direct-to-consumer marketing. Great add to the management - Maintenance data in Q3 - Catalent agreement: It covers 100 million vial and syringe units, 100 million auto-injector units, and 1 billion tablets. - Amylin program: IND filing this quarter

@counter121212 @meangenebio some primary school level math coupled with zero biotech science knowledge

@meangenebio One clueless take after the next from this account. The biggest market in pharma history is apparently a losing proposition according to this guy. But not for $1T LLY, just VKTX.

$VKTX If you assume the market expands to something like 30 million chronic GLP-1 users globally and pricing continues to normalize toward a Walgreens-style cash environment, you end up with manufacturer net pricing around $120–150 per month. That implies about $1,800 per patient per year. At 30 million users, the total manufacturer revenue pool is roughly $50–55 billion annually. That sounds huge, but once you layer in competitive reality, the math tightens fast. In a mature, scale-driven chronic market with Novo, Lilly, Amgen, Roche, Chinese and others, history says the top two players will likely control 70% combined. The third player might get low teens if differentiated. Everyone else tends falls closer to 1–3% if they are not clearly superior and are competing against mega-cap infrastructure. VKTX without a partner, with no clear superiority, and into a price-compressed $150 net environment, a realistic steady-state share is generously 1–3%. At 1%, that’s 300,000 patients, which at $1,800 per year is about $540 million in revenue. At 2%, it’s roughly $1.1 billion. At 3%, about $1.6 billion. Now apply 55–60% gross margin because they lack the manufacturing scale of the incumbents. That takes $1.1 billion revenue down to maybe $600 million gross profit. From there, subtract what it costs to run a global obesity franchise: sales force, DTC marketing, medical affairs, post-marketing studies, ongoing R&D. It is not hard to burn $600–900 million annually in operating expense trying to compete with Lilly and Novo. In that setup, operating income can compress toward breakeven or low profit levels. Without differentiation or a major pharma partner providing scale, contracting leverage and infrastructure, VKTX will end up being economically marginal in a mass-market, price-normalized obesity landscape. The need to sell now for whatever they can get, tomorrow they are worth less.

Viking is NOT just a weekly injection company. They are actively positioning themselves to own the Maintenance Market. Let me know if you agree with the article: mdpi.com/2218-0532/94/1… It dives into why Viking can actually pull off a monthly dose while others fail. Slow Clearance: The article highlights Viking's "prolonged apparent half-life," which allows the drug to stay in the system at therapeutic levels for 28+ days without a massive "crash" in efficacy at the end of the month. Peak-to-Trough Ratio: It notes that Viking’s molecule has a favorable ratio, meaning the "peak" (which causes nausea) isn't too high, and the "trough" (where hunger returns) isn't too low. This is the "Goldilocks" zone for a maintenance drug. @bioinvestor24

@Alpha_bro1 This is regression line of self-reported VANQUISH participants, no extrapolation. If no self-selection bias (I don't see clear evidence of it), VK2735 will reach 25% WL by week 30. We will know if it is the case in Q3.

$VKTX I feel like I underestimated the potential of VK2735 after looking more closely at Roche’s CT-388 data (similar dual agonist). Roche already reported 22.5% placebo adjusted weight loss at only 48 weeks for PH2, which likely corresponds to around 24% absolute weight loss. When comparing VK2735 Phase 2 results with CT-388 Phase 1b, Viking’s early efficacy suggests it could deliver possibly even better Weight loss over time. I wouldn’t be surprised if VK2735 ultimately reaches retatrutide like performance, near 28% weight loss. If efficacy ends up being comparable, considering retatrutide worst side effects, logically vikings and roche could outsell retatrutide.

Truist ( $VKTX ) Sees Little Lag Between VK2735's SQ and Oral Commercial Availability. $LLY $NVO GPCR Truist said: Although the oral Ph3 will have started a little over a year after the start of SQ Ph3 (VANQUISH 1), expect minimal lag in commercial availability of oral VK2735 for the following reasons: • Oral Ph3s will be a fraction of the size of SQ Ph3s (~75% smaller) as much of the safety data can be leveraged from the SQ Ph3s. And given smaller trial size, expect the studies to complete enrollment faster. o As a reference, VANQUISH1 enrollment completed in a record 5 months which speaks to high interest in obesity trials. • Expect shorter time to submit NDA for oral '2735 given much of the components of the NDA package can leverage SQ NDA. • Lastly, titration period will be shorter for the oral. Therefore, expect full duration of the trial to be shorter (oral Ph3 will be ~62 to 64 weeks inclusive of titration + 52 weeks on full dose vs 78 weeks for SQ study inclusive of titration + 52 weeks on full dose). Bottom line, we think commercial availability of oral VK2735 won't be too far behind SQ VK2735, which will be important for positioning both drugs vs tirzep/orfo and SQ/oral Wegovy. Oral Ph3s will use a different CRO from the one being used for SQ to ensure that the respective CROs remain focused on their given trials without distraction. Similar to SQ Ph3, 100% of the patients for the oral Ph3 will be enrolled in the U.S. Also, Instead of 4 pills used in Ph2, two smaller pills will be taken for oral Ph3.

@bioinvestor24 A risky play. You bet on NVO's success in acquiring a dual agonist. That may or may not happen.

What is happening behind the scene is more impactful news for $NVO value and sector dynamics It’s not commercial price cut in 2027 and M Lange is bluffing on doubling down on pipeline ( in phase 1-2 ) in video below $NVO sight and focus is on a late stage GLP1 GIP dual agonist ( not a brainer anymore even for people not in field ) ..M Lang is Bluffing here to reduce heat in negotiations. Other Pharma interested in such molecules as well. Not many dual agonists in phase 3 and GLP1 price range is in control of NVO and $LLy for a while if novo succeed in “ the deal “ novo sight now on real “ next generation “ GLP1 GIP duals and moving beyond Sema and CagriSema long term I am starting a new position in $NVO. Upside on news alone could be big .. it put them back big in the game People know my belief GLP1 GIP will dominate obesity for many years.

@Chocolatechil20 @bioinvestor24 Survodutide is GLP1/glucagon dual. Doesn't count.

@bioinvestor24 "novo sight now on real “ next generation “ GLP1 GIP duals" I guess one of these is the target: - VK2735 from $VKTX is the cleanest - HRS9531 from Hengrui Pharma - Survodutide from Boehringer is a wildcard Any other that i am missing?

$vktx Kinda crazy the whole Danish economy is at the mercy of a 55 employee startup in San Diego.

@ag76_biotech It was $10 Billion. But you got 'doesn't work' part right

Congrats to $PFE, it ignored $Vktx and instead paid $7B for something that $NVO just showed it doesn’t work

$LLY $NVO $VKTX Novo brass blames Cagrisema REDEFINE-4 results on “open-label” nature of the trial, also citing more patients getting to top dose of Zepbound vs Cagrisema… It’s wild work to essentially say, “we only lost because patients could tolerate higher doses of our competitor’s drug.” Time for Novo to buy Viking and get on with it.

@bioinvestor24 @maziardoustdar Metsera would dream to be anywhere close to Cagrisema lol

$NVO @maziardoustdar can’t catch up to $LLY with a science team that ,till recent statement, believes CagriSema can have an upside over tirzepatide on GI side effects & tolerability….all after several phase 3 trials published .. who is looking there at basic clinical data ? No wonder the team was chasing Metsera. For what.. another CagriSema ?

@MeadowCapital @lazy0126 Polymarket makes money from service fees not people losing bet. People bet against each other. Agree that the odds mean nothing. The volume is only of a few thousand $. Easily manipulated.

@lazy0126 This is silly stuff. Polymarket is a gambling website. Gambling websites make money when people lose their bets. Pay no attention to this stuff, for your own sake. Let the Viking management continue to execute.

Even Polymarket now has a bet on $vktx getting acquired before 2027. Interest seems pretty high When I first checked, it was around 30%, but now it's over 60%. polymarket.com/event/which-co…

@MeadowCapital Good to know. Didn't follow WVE closely. Phase 1 to initiate according to their website

@Joeyang043 They've Ph.1 data coming this quarter. Should be interesting.

$WVE Is that legit what $WVE CEO says that their obesity treatment would be administered "1 or 2 times a year" ? That's all it would take?! $VKTX $NVO $LLY

@DragonMaxGoku @bioinvestor24 The shorter duration was a very nice unexpected news. 36 week would beat my wildest dream

@bioinvestor24 Plus. I think likely to be 36 week too. So we should have data from all 3 studies in H2 next year.

$VKTX “ FDA approved the design we presented “ Expect 500-800 pt trials. BL even mentioned that to PIper analyst a few wks ago.

@bioinvestor24 That's a strong hint. But I wish he could have given more definitive answer re trial size

@DrMakaryFDA Thank you for swift fat middle finger to the scumbag copycat

FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products. The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs.

@BulletOneOneTwo @KobeissiLetter Or drop to $1 and they can buy much much more. Big W!

@KobeissiLetter They haven't lost anything. They bought it with sold stock $. It could go to $10k and they just buy even more. Amazing how many 'smart' people just can't get this.

BREAKING: Losses on MicroStrategy's, $MSTR, Bitcoin position officially rise above $3.5 billion. The company's Bitcoin position has lost nearly -$40 BILLION in 4 months.

@SpacemanZN @trentkelp @bioinvestor24 @Viking_VKTX Bingo.

@trentkelp @bioinvestor24 @Viking_VKTX Isn’t the best way to promote a company developing a drug to simply show the actual results of the drug? Hyping up the stock for short-term gains is a loser’s mindset.

$VKTX @Viking_VKTX Needs to fire Brian the CEO ASAP! He is terrible! That is all!