John Lipsey

Thought for the day: As its victims descend into increasingly bizarre conspiracy theories, we are seeing in real time how antisemitism is a stupidifying mind virus that corrodes the critical faculties needed to discern cause and effect.

Revealed preferences

Ukraine continues to benefit from Iran war

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The Legend of Taylor Heinicke! bit.ly/3jht3iM @BreakingT

What a career, Taylor Heinicke 👏

German Chancellor Merz: "Iran must come to the negotiating table. It must stop playing for time. It must no longer take the region and the entire world hostage. Its military nuclear program must be ended completely and forever, and there must be no further strikes against Israel and our partners in the region."

I know many analysts shy away from predictions, BUT, my assessment was that the ceasefire would fail by the first week of May, and renewed hostilities would last several weeks, ending before the unofficial start to summer. Here’s why: 1. Our military planners have always had a military objective (this is different from a political objective) they were going after. They signaled this throughout the start of Epic Fury, and that military objective was not accomplished when the ceasefire began. 2. The military required a tactical pause by Easter weekend, a requirement that became more pronounced after using so many resources to the rescue the downed air crew. 3. A two-week tactical pause provided Trump increasing political and economic benefits/leverage, which resulted in the extension. 4. As military resources changed out in the region (MEUs conducting a RIP, resupply of interceptors, etc.) the military has now expressed a readiness to renew operations. 5. Once the military was set, Trump could begin increasing pressure on Iran in the strait to either open it completely, or draw Iran into action. 6. This is where we are now. Iran was given two options: continue in an economic death spiral while global traffic begins flowing through the strait, or attack energy infrastructure of its neighbors and break the ceasefire. They have chosen the latter and the US military can move to defend allies and interests by finishing their drive to the original military objective.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods on Venezuela. From (Jan 9, 2026) "univestable" to (May 1, 2026) "... Venezuela is a huge resource that's now opened up more freely to the world [...] I think we'll be uniquely positioned and play an important role in bringing those barrels to market..."

“The 6,000-strong al Qaeda umbrella group already controls territory the size of Montana in Mali and other parts of the Sahel …it could seize control of the entire country—home to 25 million people in an area almost twice the size of Texas.”

Charles III as the underrated monarch? The success of his tour will likely bolster the UK monarchy, and the tariff relief will gratify the Scots. Britain now looks a bit more likely to remain both United and a Kingdom.

I love this thoughtful answer from Luke Weaver.

NEW: Ep. 589: The Oil Order Unravels: UAE leaves OPEC - @nottvjessjones + @jamil_n_jaffer + @lestermunson + @johnclipsey examine the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC, the oil cartel that has shaped global energy markets for decades. 📺 Watch: youtu.be/mGvns6BJtpw 🎧 Listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fau… @MasonNatSec + @georgemasonlaw + @GeorgeMasonU

China helps our enemies which are authoritarian powers. We help countries that are and want to be part of the West, that are victims of aggression, and whose security benefits ours.

a Regime In Name Only

Because there’s no one to make decisions

Iran appears entirely preoccupied with internal politics, and Araghchi in an IRGC straitjacket… “The messages outlined Tehran’s red lines…and were not part of negotiations but an initiative to clarify its position… Araghchi is acting fully within defined red lines”

According to those familiar with the matter, the letter warned that Iran’s economic situation is grave, that the country cannot continue on its current path, and that the leadership has no practical choice but to negotiate seriously with the United States over the nuclear file … Before the first round of negotiations, Mojtaba Khamenei had reportedly drawn a red line: Iranian officials were not to discuss the nuclear issue with the United States. But the Iranian delegation had to talk about the nuclear file, because any serious negotiation with Washington necessarily revolves around it. So they did. That decision triggered the hardline backlash.